This is a rush transcript from "On the Record," February 5, 2010. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

GRETA VAN SUSTEREN, FOX NEWS HOST: OK, here's the story. Arkansas's United States Senator Blanche Lincoln, a Democrat, is in big trouble in Arkansas. She's up for re-election in November and her approval rating is dismal at 27.

Meanwhile, Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska cornhusker kickback fame is not up for reelection until 2012, and the DNC spent about $500,000 to advertise for him in the state of Nebraska. So what's up?

Dick Morris, author of "Catastrophe," join us. Dick, so what's up? You know Arkansas really well. Of course you know all of politics well. But why does Senator Ben Nelson gets all the advertising dollars. What's up?

DICK MORRIS, AUTHOR, "CATASTROPHE": That's probably a payback for his vote, that was probably part of the bribe.

In Arkansas, Lincoln is in serious trouble. She is behind 20 points, and I don't think she is going to make it. Let me fill in the overall Senate picture. The Republicans need 10 seats, that's the magic number, because they won Massachusetts, and with 10 they get up to 51.

There are five seats that I think they are going to pick fairly quickly or easily, Delaware, where Biden's son deciding not to run, North Carolina with Dorgan deciding not to run, Arkansas, where I think Lincoln will lose, Nevada, where I think Harry Reid is double digits behind, and I think he's gone, and Colorado, where there's an appointed senator Michael Bennett and the very popular former lieutenant governor Jane Norton, a Republican, will probably beat him.

Then you are going to have four seats which are tough but doable, Pennsylvania where Specter is running again. I think Pat Toomey will have a good chance of beating him, Illinois, which is an open seat but a Democratic state, and Congressman Mark Kirk in the lead, a Republican, California, where Carly Fiorina is running a fabulous race against Barbara Boxer and is just three points behind, and then Indiana, which is where Evan Bayh is very popular, but former senator Dan Coates, who used to be a client of mine, may run and I think he may defeat Bayh.

And then you need a 10th seat, and that's the problem. And we have five possibilities. If somebody good runs again Gillibrand, the woman appointed to Hillary's seat in New York. We need somebody to run against Patty Murray in Washington, Ron Wyden in Oregon, Russ Feingold in Wisconsin.

And we have a good candidate in Connecticut for that seat Dodd vacated, Rob Simmons, but Blumenthal the Democrat is a tough candidate. So right now I see five right there, four that will be tough. And one more that's going to take some doing.

VAN SUSTEREN: I hear you say "We, we, we." Are you part of this? Are you reporting or are you part of this?

MORRIS: I'm part of it. O-U-I, part of it.

VAN SUSTEREN: OK, I got that straight.

California, I'm surprised, Carly Fiorina, who is well-known here on Fox News Channel, she has appeared here "On the Record," she's closing in on senator, well, she has to win the nomination, but is she going to win the Republican nomination? That seems like a tough race.

MORRIS: It is a tough race, but she's ahead for the nomination. I think she's likely to win that. It could be tough. But frankly, I think any Republican would have a shot against Boxer. Fiorina is only three points behind, Campbell, the other guy, is six points behind.

So, Boxer, I think is in serious trouble whoever the Republicans nominate. She deserves to be.

VAN SUSTEREN: My home state of Wisconsin Senator Feingold, who has been reelected many times and is very popular in the state. But what's interesting is we're hearing rumblings that former governor of the state Tommy Thompson may challenge him.

MORRIS: If Thompson got into that race I think he'd defeat Feingold. Rasmussen has Thompson three point ahead of Feingold. And that would then be the 10th seat.

There's also a lot of rumors about strong candidates getting in in New York against Gillibrand. And there's a good candidate in Washington, a guy named Paul Akers, who may run against Patty Murray. So those folks are in jeopardy.

You want my personal view?


MORRIS: I think Greta, that the Republicans will take control of the house, will take control of the Senate, and might take control of the Senate with a few seats to spare.

VAN SUSTEREN: What about, on another issue, governor Palin? She is going to be speaking as the keynote speaker at the Tea Party Convention. What do you predict is her political future? And what do you make of her use as Facebook as a weapon to communicate?

MORRIS: You know, I think Sarah Palin was fabulous during the campaign. I'm not one of those that think she hurt the ticket. I think she gave McCain a lead for three weeks, and that was terrific. And I think the stuff she's doing now with the tea parties and everything is fabulous.

The one thing I don't get is why she quit as governor. I've never really heard an answer to that. But listen, the Republican party needs some leadership right now. It is all grassroots. And if Sarah Palin is going to dig in and do that, more power to her. I think she is a unique person in our politics, and my hat's off to her.

I spent an hour or two with her a year before the convention. I was one of those who urged them to nominate her. You know, maybe there was some specific briefing she needed, but you can't replace courage, integrity, guts, and confidence. And she has those in abundance.

VAN SUSTEREN: Let's go back to the Senate race to Evan Bayh in Indiana. He's been a former governor of the state, a moderate Democrat. You said that the person who may challenge him is a former client of yours.

But it is hard for me to think that the people of Indiana wouldn't reelect him. He's an institution in that state. His father represented the state for years.

MORRIS: His dad was my client years ago, too. Look, I think there is no such thing as a moderate Democrat. And I think that's what the voters of the United States learned when the Senate passed the health care bill.

You had all of these moderate Democrats, Evan Bayh, Blanche Lincoln, Byron Dorgan, Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, they folded like a cheap suit when there became pressure on them from Obama and Reid.

And I think what we are learning, and I think the voters of Indiana, which is basically a Republican state, have learned is that basically you don't have a moderate Democrat.

The other thing with Evan Bayh that's going to come out in April called "2010," my wife has spent a whole chapter on how his wife gets all of this lobbying business for issues where he's powerful in the Senate. And Chris Dodd did some of that, and I think it is something that needs to be exposed.

VAN SUSTEREN: In Washington you meet a lot of people. I've met them and I like both of them very much. But I'll still look at the chapter when the book comes out.

One quick question -- if you were Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid would you want president Obama to come to Nevada, actually Las Vegas would be a better question, and campaign for you?

MORRIS: No, I would want him to come and bet it all on red. I think Obama would really hurt anyone in a moderate state that he campaigns for at this point. He would do good in Pennsylvania and stuff like that.

But look, Greta, he went to Massachusetts. It didn't do Martha Coakley any good.

VAN SUSTEREN: And I just remembered he made that crack about Vegas that the mayor wasn't wild about.

MORRIS: It occurred to me the other day of a column on DickMorris.com about this. Toyota is in trouble because its accelerator pedals stick. So is the federal government. They can't get their foot often accelerator and put it on the brake.

And I think people are really upset about the deficit spending, and that there are fairly easy ways to curtail it. You don't have to spend the extra $500 billion of stimulus money and you can take that TARP money and put it back in the treasury when it is paid back. That's $1 trillion right there.

VAN SUSTEREN: Got to go, thank you Dick.

MORRIS: OK, thanks.

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