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Fox News Democracy 2020: Convention Kickoff

Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum co-anchor a kickoff as COVID-19 forces candidates to get creative.

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On the roster: What about the bounces? - Michelle Obama to boost DNC kickoff - Trump tries to blunt Biden bounce with online blitz - Pelosi calls House back to put pressure on post office - That’s no way to treat your only fan

WHAT ABOUT THE BOUNCES?
If you want a good measure of how out-of-whack the perceptions of political America are about actual America, look no further than the discussion about the cancelation of this year’s nominating conventions. 

It has the same odor about it as the coverage at the end of the era of the late-night talk show. Who will succeed David Letterman? Is Jay Leno being pushed out? Ten years later and nobody can tell the difference between a $20-million network star and a random YouTuber. It’s all just a bunch of dudes in their basement anyway. 

But somehow, politicos and the press pool that covers them are acting like the absence of a physical meeting might be a major factor for mainstream voters. 

Over the past 64 years, political conventions have become pretty much like their non-political counterparts. Whether it’s the DNC, RNC, Consumer Electronics Show, ComiCon or the corrugated paper industry’s annual blowout, SuperCorrExpo, these events have major importance for the participants and hardcore aficionados not in attendance, but minimal direct effects on ordinary consumers. 

What makes the political conventions different is something that has followed a similar arc as the parties themselves over the past seven decades: Television. 

With maybe the exception of the Westminster Kennel Club, the annual gatherings of other private organizations do not garner massive television coverage – and in both cases the candidates are frequently dogs. 

Until about 40 years ago, both the parties and the news media kept up the fiction that the events themselves were consequential. Since then, the events have transparently been for the sake of the coverage. 

As this plague year has forced all involved to admit, the necessary business of the parties could be held with about the scope and grandeur as the folks who bring you corrugated shipping boxes. 

Now, that’s not to say that the coverage is somehow inappropriate. It’s fitting for major news outlets to give attention to the once-great parties still at the heart of our political system. They may not matter from a practical standpoint in the primary election era, but the conventions are as good a time as any. 

Looking at things this way, we see that there has never been such thing as a “convention bounce,” but there is certainly a convention coverage bounce. 

Two or three months before every quadrennial election, news outlets devote huge coverage to the presentations of the two major parties. For three or four nights, the most powerful medium in news coverage lays it on thick. This is the signal to likely voters that things are getting serious. 

If there were this kind of coverage of corgis, consumer electronics, comic books or corrugation you’d certainly see a bounce, too. Probably a much bigger one given the fact that attitudes on those subjects are much less hardened than those drawn from carbonite freeze of modern hyper-partisanship. 

The electorate does not sort itself at a steady rate. Before the first primary debate or exploratory committee is formed two years prior to a presidential election, something like 80 percent of the votes are already locked up. It doesn’t matter whether the parties nominate good or bad candidates, those votes are spoken for. 

But the remaining 20 percent or so – something between 25 million and 30 million voters this year – comes in fits and starts. 

Some will decide not to vote at all, others will push off deciding which of the two evils is lesser until the very end and some may wait until the debates. But for others, especially those loosely attached partisans, the conventions mark the time of decision. 

The recent uptick in support for President Trump – who has shrunk his deficit to challenger Joe Biden by 3 points to 8.2 points in our average of polls since one week ago – could even be called a pre-convention coverage bounce.

As the election draws closer, partisans migrate like geese at the first frost. The I-don’t-know-but-I’m-usually-a-Republican voters take wing, and so will their counterparts.

Trump has some extra upside here since Biden has already drawn so much support from the loosely affiliated. With more than half of the vote, there may not be much left for him to get. That can create its own problems late in a campaign from the perspective of momentum.

However big or however ephemeral, there will be convention coverage bounces this year like every cycle since Ike dunked on Adlai Stevenson. The size and durability will again be partly a product of partisan coalescence and partly a reflection of the quality and message of the television mini-series each party produces. But they will still come.

As we’ve all had to admit, you don’t need a convention to have convention coverage. 

THE RULEBOOK: PRIVATE EYES
“[The government] will indeed deserve the most vigilant and careful attention of the people, to see that it be modeled in such a manner as to admit of its being safely vested with the requisite powers.” – Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 23

TIME OUT: NICOLAY AND HAY COULD HAVE USED THE HELP
Smithsonian: “Between 1999 and 2002, the Library of Congress tasked the Lincoln Studies Center at Knox College in Illinois with transcribing thousands of letters sent to and from President Abraham Lincoln. Staff finished about half of the missives (mostly those penned by Lincoln himself), and in 2018, the Washington, D.C. library decided to recruit volunteers to transcribe the remaining 10,000. Last month, the ‘Letters to Lincoln’ project—conducted via the library’s ‘By the People’ crowdsourcing platform—concluded after two years of work, reports Michael E. Ruane for the Washington Post. Now, transcriptions completed by thousands of volunteers are set to join the 10,000 already available online. (In total, the library’s Lincoln papers constitute 40,000 documents, around half of which are digitized. Find volunteer-transcribed pages here.)”

Flag on the play? - Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM with your tips, comments or questions.

SCOREBOARD
NATIONAL HEAD-TO-HEAD AVERAGE
Trump: 43 percent
Biden: 51.2 percent  
Size of lead: Biden by 8.2 points  
Change from one week ago: Biden ↓ 0.6 points, Trump ↑ 2.4 points  
[Average includes: CNN: Trump 46% - Biden 50%; ABC News/WaPo: Trump 44% - Biden 54%; NBC News/WSJ: Trump 41% - Biden 50%; Fox News: Trump 42% - Biden 49%; NPR/PBS News/Marist: Trump 42% - Biden 53%.]

BATTLEGROUND POWER RANKINGS
(270 electoral votes needed to win)
Toss-up: (109 electoral votes): Wisconsin (10), Ohio (18), Florida (29), Arizona (11), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15), Iowa (6)
Lean R/Likely R: (180 electoral votes)
Lean D/Likely D: (249 electoral votes)

TRUMP JOB PERFORMANCE
Average approval: 43 percent
Average disapproval: 54.6 percent  
Net Score: -11.6 points  
Change from one week ago: ↑ 4.4 points 
[Average includes: CNN: 43% approve - 54% disapprove; ABC News/WaPo: 42% approve - 57% disapprove; NBC News/WSJ: 44% approve - 53% disapprove; Fox News: 44% approve - 54% disapprove; Gallup: 42% approve - 55% disapprove.]

GOT A WILD PITCH? READY TO THROW A FASTBALL?
We’ve brought “From the Bleachers” to video on demand thanks to Fox Nation. Each Wednesday and Friday, Producer Brianna McClelland will put Politics Editor Chris Stirewalt to the test with your questions on everything about politics, government and American history – plus whatever else is on your mind. Sign up for the Fox Nation streaming service here and send your best questions to HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM.

MICHELLE OBAMA TO BOOST DNC KICKOFF
NYT: “The most popular figure speaking on Monday night — or at any time this week — will be Michelle Obama. The former first lady is seen by Democrats not only as a symbol of a better time, but as an electric speaker and a champion of the causes they care about the most. She can speak to Mr. Biden’s character and his service as vice president like no one else, save Jill Biden and Barack Obama. And because of her own pathbreaking identity, she could play a special role in introducing Ms. Harris to those Americans who still do not know much about her. Mrs. Obama has also put voting rights and voter participation at the top of her political agenda since leaving the White House. Those subjects are particularly urgent now, amid widespread fear that the pandemic will make voting far more difficult and growing alarm that the Trump administration is undermining the Postal Service to thwart vote-by-mail efforts at the state level. Should Mrs. Obama take up the issue herself, she would add a powerful voice to the debate.”

Harris gets a warm welcome from voters - ABC News: “More Americans approve than disapprove of Joe Biden's choice of Sen. Kamala Harris for the 2020 Democratic ticket by a 25-point margin, 54-29%, in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll. Approval of the pick ranges from 86-8% among Democrats to 25-55% among Republicans -- notable that one in four Republicans approves. It's 52-29% among independents, potential swing voters in presidential elections. While reaction to Harris is broadly positive, the margin narrows among those who have strong opinions. Thirty-four percent of Americans strongly approve of her selection, while 22% strongly disapprove, a 12-point margin. One reason is that her strong support slides from 59% among liberals to 35% among moderates (and 17% among conservatives). It's also 30 points lower among racial and ethnic minorities under 40 compared with those who are older.”

Kasich hints at another top-tier turncoat at DNC - Fox News: “Twitter has been buzzing with speculation ever since former Ohio Gov. John Kasich told CNN on Sunday that a ‘prominent’ Republican congressman would declare their support for Joe Biden. Kasich predicted that the unidentified GOP figure could make the announcement on Monday. ‘Either Hurd or Amash I’d guess (both retiring),’ Washington Post reporter Dave Weigel tweeted Sunday evening, referring to former Republican and current Libertarian congressman Justin Amash and Rep. Will Hurd, R-Texas. Amash quickly squashed that idea, replying to Weigel, ‘It's not me’ and adding that he does not believe it would be Hurd either. Amash said he intends to vote for his party's candidate, Jo Jorgensen.”

TRUMP TRIES TO BLUNT BIDEN BOUNCE WITH ONLINE BLITZ
Axios: “The Trump campaign anticipates that Joe Biden will get a significant polling bump out of the Democratic National Convention. So the campaign has planned a week of heavy counterprogramming, with the president traveling to four battleground states. Vice President [Mike] Pence will be in Wisconsin. Members of the Trump family will be campaigning, and two Trump-Pence bus tours with surrogates will be on the road and doing local media, said Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh. The Trump campaign has also executed a massive digital ad buy for this week. The campaign will be taking over the YouTube masthead — prime internet real estate — for 96 consecutive hours from Tuesday through Friday, Murtaugh said. The Trump campaign will also be doing homepage takeovers of the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post and Daily Caller for various 24-hour periods during the DNC, Murtaugh added. It will also run ads on the Fox News website.”

MARKEY TESTS MASSACHUSETTS' LOVE FOR THE KENNEDYS
Politico: “Sen. Ed Markey is going where few Massachusetts Democrats have dared to go before. He’s not only attacking his challenger, Rep. Joe Kennedy III, he’s throwing shade at the Kennedy family, the state’s equivalent of political royalty. In an ever-more contentious battle between a septuagenarian senator and the scion of one of the nation’s best-known dynasties, Markey is calling out specific Kennedy family members by name, needling the wealth and privilege that attaches to the family name, and even drawing from the Kennedy myth in his bid to fend off his youthful challenger. … ‘We asked what we could do for our country. We went out, we did it,’ Markey says at the end of the video, with his arms crossed and rock music playing in the background. ‘With all due respect, it's time to start asking what your country can do for you.’”

Dems see opening as Virginia GOPer focuses on transgender fears - NYT: “Bob Good … the Republican nominee for a House seat in his conservative Central Virginia district, is hoping to rally clergy members with meetings this week attacking a new state law prohibiting discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity… ‘What happens when a male member of your congregation goes on vacation and returns four weeks later as a female?’ the invitation said, adding, ‘What do your church bylaws state regarding a man dressed as a woman who attends a church function and expects to use the women’s restroom.’ … [Good defeated] Representative Denver Riggleman, which was widely viewed as a reaction to his decision to officiate at a same-sex marriage last year. … [The] Fifth Congressional District in Central Virginia is now on the radar screen of Democrats… Cameron Webb, the Democratic candidate facing Mr. Good, is a practicing physician who also teaches at the University of Virginia. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee … has pledged assistance…” 

PELOSI CALLS HOUSE BACK TO PUT PRESSURE ON POST OFFICE
AP: “Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Sunday she is calling the House back into session over the crisis at the U.S. Postal Service, setting up a political showdown amid growing concerns that the Trump White House is trying to undermine the agency ahead of the election. Pelosi is cutting short lawmakers’ summer recess with a vote expected the Saturday after the Democratic National Convention on legislation that would prohibit changes at the agency as tensions mount. President Donald Trump’s new postmaster general, Louis DeJoy, has sparked nationwide outcry over delays, new prices and cutbacks just as millions of Americans will be trying to vote by mail to avoid polling places during the coronavirus outbreak. ‘In a time of a pandemic, the Postal Service is Election Central,’ Pelosi wrote Sunday in a letter to colleagues, who had been expected to be out of session until September. ‘Lives, livelihoods and the life of our American Democracy are under threat from the president.’”

Schumer wants Senate to follow suit - The Hill: “Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on Sunday that a key Senate panel should hold public hearings with U.S. Postal Service (USPS) leadership and that the chamber should return early if the House passes related legislation. Schumer, speaking at a press conference in New York, said Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Chairman Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) should schedule a hearing with Postmaster General Louis DeJoy and USPS board of governors Chairman Robert Duncan. If DeJoy refuses to testify, Schumer added that he should be removed from his job. … Schumer on Sunday said that if the House is able to pass legislation, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) should bring back the Senate. The Senate is currently scheduled to be out of town until Sept. 8, and the GOP leader noted late last week that it would take consent from every senator to hold any votes before then.”

Voters worries about vote validity - NBC News: “American voters are significantly less confident in the accuracy of the presidential vote count than they were four years ago, and their plans for how to cast their own ballots differ widely based on which candidate they support, according to new data from the NBC News/Wall Street Journal August poll. The poll finds that 45 percent of voters are not confident that the results of the election will be counted accurately, up from 34 percent who said the same before the 2016 election. The same share, 45 percent, say they are confident in the 2020 total vote count, down from 59 percent four years ago. Asked specifically about ballots cast by mail— which President Donald Trump has said, without evidence, are ripe for fraud and foreign interference — 44 percent of voters say they are confident that mailed ballots will be counted accurately, while 51 percent disagree.”

PLAY-BY-PLAY
Pergram: Coronavirus bill has Congress caught in a temporal loop - Fox News

Intel boss touts election security briefings - Fox News

Trump enthused about corona treatment backed by TV’s pillow king - Axios

Study finds lots of double dipping by federal contractors on corona aid - USA Today

AUDIBLE: WHAT IS THE SOUND OF ONE BREWSKI CLINKING?
“What about the balloons, the confetti? At the end of the night, I’m supposed to open up a beer or two, and there is nobody to toast to victory with? It’s totally bizarre.” - Rep. Chuy García, D-Ill., talking with the Chicago Tribune about the virtual DNC.

FROM THE BLEACHERS
“Rather than the winner-take-all system most states use, I’ve read that James Madison favored a system in which each Elector voted for the candidate who won his (the Elector’s) district, with the two ‘senatorial’ electors voting for the statewide winner. Do you have any data that would compare the results of this approach to the current one? … [Looking at a] map [of] states, Trump won 230 congressional districts, while Clinton won 205. By my count, Trump won the statewide vote in 30 states, while Clinton won 20 plus D.C. So, by Madison’s preferred reckoning, Trump would have won the Electoral College by 290 to 248. (The fact that the percentage of districts won doesn’t match the popular vote split suggests not all districts have met the one-man-one-vote objective of equal population. Reapportionment happens. If, as an approximation, I allocate the 435 electors by percentages of the popular vote, Clinton won 226 to 219, but Trump still would have won the Electoral College, 279 to 259.) You may well say pshaw and poppycock because state laws are what they are, and they aren’t this. I think, though, that if states adopted the ‘Madison method’ of allocating Electors, it would make every vote cast more meaningful as well as offering a more transparent view of the election process and easier understanding of election results. Something worth considering, perhaps.” – Chris Sales, Fort Collins, Colo.

[Ed. note: I have become increasingly interested in Madison’s late-life proposal to choose electors by congressional district. He had never been a fan of the statewide system, but accepted the first iteration of the Electoral College as a necessary compromise. When he wrote down his proposal in 1823, the process had already been through major changes and was on the cusp of even larger upheavals with the first populist movement under the Jacksonians. In his 70s and long out of public life, Madison argued for a new system in a letter to George Hay, a prominent Virginia jurist and prosecutor who also happened to be son-in-law to then-President James Monroe. This was as close as Madison could come to re-engaging in public debate while still maintaining the dignity of his status as a former president. As Madison put it, the original plan was “not exempt from a degree of the hurrying influence produced by fatigue and impatience in all such Bodies,” and bemoaned the degree to which the statewide selection of electors had worsened factionalism by reinforcing geographical blocs. Madison’s concerns about the original plan were coming to pass, the very same problems that would play out in the Civil War. But creating opportunities for dissenting districts in states to band together on the presidential level would limit that geographic factionalism. Places like western Virginia and eastern Tennessee that were unlike the rest of their states in political attitudes would be empowered under a district system. He wrote “when they make their elections by districts, some of these differing in sentiment from others, and sympathizing with that of districts in other States, they are so knit together as to break the force of those geographical and other noxious parties.” I increasingly think that Madison was right. Though I am concerned about the continued dilution of state’s power in our allegedly federal system, faction has become such a terrible poison that we have to take seriously the proposals to limit its power. It strikes me as a compromise very much worth re-considering.]

“Seriously, a national mandate to wear a mask ‘outside the home’? If I am hiking in the Wyoming mountains, driving my tractor in Iowa, or riding my jet ski on a Virginia lake, should I really be required to wear a mask? This is ‘one size fits all’ mentality and pure idiocy without necessary qualifications. One important qualification might be that masks be worn only when other non-family people are in close proximity like in grocery stores, retail stores, etc. Big government Joe was way out in front of his skis on this one.” – Jim Miller, Southlake, Texas

[Ed. note: My favorite part of the former vice president’s response on that one was this line: “It’s not about your rights. It’s about your responsibilities as an American.” Ummmmmmmmm…. If that was so, there would be no need of a mandate. Instead Biden would be encouraging people to be responsible, not inventing new powers for the federal government. But his right about it in one sense. It’s not about citizens’ rights, it’s about presidential authority. In our system we refuse the chief executive and the government in Washington all kinds of powers to do things that would be hugely helpful in dealing with short-term problems. The people who are fighting the current president’s unconstitutional efforts to give away money during an election year aren’t necessarily opposed to increasing the dole during a crisis, but rather leaving the power to do so with the presidency. They would rather go without something helpful than have the power to deliver the help in the clutches of an office where it would be so ripe for abuse now and in the future. Our system is more interested in preventing the concentration and abuse of power than it is doing what is popular.]

“Seems to be an entirely different level of trash talking going on here. Everything said above on this day (14 Aug 2020) is counter to ONE party? What’s the point of having a ‘balanced approach’ – if you can’t maintain it in print? I have seen nothing like these statements concerning that other party lately. And yet to see any of the major networks (NBC, MSNBC, CNN, ABC. CBS) – to date – say anything about the 5-year-old who was murdered? Once again – what’s the point – join in / blend in?” –   Donald Tygart, Tualatin, Ore.

[Ed. note: It seems like your assertion here, Mr. Tygart, is that in our Friday note we unfairly dwelt on the ways in which President Trump is demonstrating desperation to stay in power without pointing out commensurate deficiencies with his challenger. You identify the murder of 5-year-old Cannon Hinnant of Wilson, N.C. by a man police say was a neighbor and associate of the boy’s father as the kind of story that should have been included for balance against the bad news for Trump. First, I understand that Trump says he is tougher on crime than Biden, but it’s hard for me to see how that is a political story. We certainly deal with crime as a campaign issue, but I would assume that particular tragedy doesn’t benefit either party. But as to the question of how much “good news” or “bad news” is in each note for each party, we’re not really paying attention. First, this isn’t a general interest product. We assume that if you’re into politics enough to want to track polls and developments on a daily basis, you’re not exactly a swing voter. Sometimes things are better for one side or one candidate, sometimes they’re worse. As Crash Davis said, “Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.” We do not care at all about influencing anybody’s vote. Not a whit. Democrats were unhappy with the news one week before the note that got your goat. That’s the way the Zoom call crumbles. Balance is about the approach to individual stories as well as story selection, not meeting arbitrary quotas for favorable and unfavorable stories. This has so far been a truly rotten election year for Republicans for reasons external and reasons of their own making. It was the same for Democrats in 2014 and 2010. When you’re down, it often seems like every break goes the other way. We know it can be frustrating. But some of that is just perception shaped by a feeling of victimhood. The secret for your party, or any party on the wrong end of a bad year, is to not get fixated on the negatives but find a way to stay positive about their chances.]

Share your color commentary: Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM and please make sure to include your name and hometown.

THAT’S NO WAY TO TREAT YOUR ONLY FAN
WINK: “A homeless man in Florida allegedly stole up to $1,200 of merchandise and food while living in the luxury suite of a Tampa Bay soccer stadium for over two weeks, police said. Daniel Albert Neja, 39, was arrested earlier this week when an employee of Al Lang Stadium found blankets in the luxury suite. The stadium is home to the Tampa Bay Rowdies soccer club. Neja stole up to $1,000 worth of merchandise from the team store as well as $200 worth of food items, according to St. Petersburg police spokeswoman Yolanda Fernandez. … Using surveillance footage, police determined that Neja had been living in the luxury suite since July 26. Neja was arrested shortly after officers got to the stadium, according to Fernandez.”

AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“Americans think chess is a game. The ‘Great Soviet Encyclopedia,’ in one of its few correct entries, defines chess as ‘an art appearing in the form of a game.’ And like all art under socialism, it is to be turned into an instrument of the state.” – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) writing in the Washington Post on March 1, 1985.

Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.