US Circulating Potential Iran Sanctions; Top State Department Official: "We Have No Choice"

UPDATE: Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs P.J. Crowley told Fox News Anchor Sheppard Smith on Studio B the U.S. would move on Iranian sanctions within weeks and "at the end of the day, China will be there and will do its part."

More from Crowley:

"We've spent a lot of time talking to Russia about this. They share our concerns about Iran. We've done the same thing with China. We've consulted with them. We think at the end of the day, as we move towards a (United Nations) resolution, we think at the end of the day China will be there and do its part"

Crowley also told Fox the U.S. and the world "have no choice" but to sanction Iran. He included China in these calculations.

Crowley: "China has the same concerns we all have about the trajectory of Iran's nuclear program. China has historically not been a fan of sanctions, but I think they recognize at the end of this that we have no choice. We've spent this past year willing to engage Iran, willing to have them come to the table and explain their nuclear program. They've failed to do so. They haven't engaged constructively. We are looking at steps we can take."

Crowley also outlined how Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps fits into U.S. plans to punish the regime economically and militarily.

"One target is the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps that's playing an expanding role in Iran, in essence turning Iran into a police state. These are the steps we are considering and we will be taking action in the U.N. in the coming weeks. What we're looking at is how can we put pressure on the government and institutions of government while respecting and supporting the Iranian people. This is why we think the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is a good target. They're not like any military as we know it. They are into the repression of the Iranian people and their political aspirations. But they are also heavily invested in the Iranian economy and we think by targeting them... this will have the kind of impact that we hope will get the attention of the Iranian government."

Original blog post begins here:

The Obama administration has, according to senior officials, begun circulating a list of potential sanctions against Iran, including limits on oil exports and tighter restrictions on access to international credit as it seeks ways to intensify pressure on the regime's feared pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Officials stressed there is no draft of potential sanctions and many ideas are being discussed. Talks are limited to a close-knit number of nations as the US seeks to built momentum for a future package of sanctions. One official involved in the process said the U.S. is "intensely" discussing the contours of a sanctions package with members of the P5 +1, but that China is not yet part of the discussion.

The P5+1 includes the U.S., Russia, France, Great Britain (the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council) and China. The official said China is being kept at arms-length for now because the U.S. wants to first iron-out a package of sanctions and then see what China might be prepared to tolerate.

The administration strategy assumes China will use its Security Council vote to approve sanctions against Iran. But the US believes China can be persuaded to abstain, a move that would allow the sanctions to go proceed. All other permanent members of the Security Council - France, Britain, Russia and the U.S. support a sanctions package, the official said.

At the UN today, U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice implied the closely held talks on new sanctions against Iran were becoming more specific.

"We are internally and with partners beginning the process of thinking through what are the appropriate elements of pressure, " Rice said. "That will be a process that will continue over a period of time and I think we should be realistic about the pace."

Rice called Thursday's report from the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, a sign that Iran was is developing "a nuclear weapons program with the purpose of evasion."

The IAEA report said Iran was engaged in a pattern of deceptive behavior by shielding its activities from nuclear inspectors. It also reported for the first time concern about "the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile."

The report also said "Iran has not provided the necessary cooperation to permit the agency to confirm that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities."

Rice said the IAEA assessment, the most blunt and critical of Iran in years, underscores "the urgency of making the choice real to Iran that it could engage and uphold its international obligations or, on the contrary, face increased international pressure.

Rice said the US and other nations "are working on the beginnings of what might constitute appropriate pressure."

A senior official involved in the process said the sanctions discussions remain preliminary and the package that may ultimately be presented to the Chinese may have to be revamped to win their abstention.

"These are not ready for prime time," the official said about the sanctions. "This process is not formal in any way. There is not a document out there. But there are intense consultations going on about what a robust sanctions package would look like."

At least for now, the US is looking toward tighter restrictions on Iranian access to credit and financial institutions because those moves, an official said, were likely to be successfully implemented, limit the regime's ability to pay for its nuclear programs, and be less likely to punish rank-and-file Iranians.

The official said part of the U.S. strategy is to avoid harming average Iranians, especially those disenchanted with the government and organizing to oppose its increasingly authoritarian ways.

The issue of petroleum sanctions looms large in the U.S. calculus. The House and Senate have approved separate sanctions bill against businesses that aid Iran's oil industry. Both bills would any person or business that invested $20 million or more in Iran's petroleum industry or infrastructure. Sanctions would also apply to anyone who provided refined petroleum products or any or goods, services, technology, information to Iran worth $200,000 or more during any 12-month period.

Limits on Iran's oil exports could deprive the regime of much-needed capital but it could also irritate China, which imported 15 percent of its oil from Iran in 2009 and ranks as its third largest supplier. One potential solution to the Iran-China oil connection could be increased oil exports from Saudi Arabia to China, a topic that hovered on the periphery of Secretary of State Clinton's meetings Monday with Saudi leaders.

On this subject, Clinton said in an interview on Feb. 16 the U.S. was "very satisfied by our meetings with both the foreign minister and the king here in Saudi Arabia. We are very much on the same page about the need to rally the international community, to take strong action in the form of sanctions against Iran."

Clinton also noted that Saudi Arabia had grown "very impatient" with the process of confronting Iran over its nuclear program.

"If you believe Iran has actually funded terrorist attacks inside your country, as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia believes, you are going to be very impatient," Clinton said. "'Let's get on with it. Let's see what we can do here. Let's try to change their decisions.' But we are very much on the same page as the Saudis are about trying to, you know, alter the course of Iran's decision-making."

The House and Senate bills have not been combined and movement in Congress has slowed as talk at the White House has increased about United Nations sanctions against Iran.

Officials predicted a lengthy process to win approval for sanctions.

"It's going to take time and be a long, hard slog," one official said.

Rice said the administration would not be pressured by artificial deadlines.

"I think some of the stories I have read suggest a pace that is not consistent with what I understand to be the case," Rice said.