Town Halls, Polls Raise Question of Who's in the Majority in Health Care Debate

Who's the majority?

Democrats say that the angry "mobs" they've encountered at town hall meetings in recent weeks represent only a small group of distrustful, anti-government citizens.

Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, a Democrat and leading proponent of health care reform, said Wednesday that the raucous participants she confronted at a town hall meeting in Hillsboro, Mo., did not make up even the majority of audience members.

And Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter said that an angry crowd who confronted him at a town hall forum in Lebanon, Pa., on Tuesday was "not representative of the American people" -- though they have a right to be heard.

"They are significant and their views need to be taken into account," Specter said, according to a report by Politico.

But while the Democrats continue to maintain that the protesters at town hall events do not represent the majority of voters across the country, recent polls show a majority of Americans now oppose President Obama's plan to reform America's health care system.

In a Quinnipiac University poll administered July 27 to Aug. 3, 36 percent of respondents said Obama's plan for a national health care option would "hurt" the quality of care they currently receive, while 21 percent said it would "improve" their care. Forty-two percent said the president's plan would increase their health care costs, while only 18 percent said it would decrease them.  The poll surveyed 2,409 registered voters nationwide and had a 2 point margin of error.

A Time Poll conducted on July 27-28 found that the majority say it is "very important" for Congress and the president to pass a major health care reform bill in the coming months, and an overwhelming majority -- 80 percent -- say they would support measures that require private insurance companies to offer coverage to anyone who applies, even if they have a pre-existing health conditions.

But 62 percent said the finalized legislation for a nationalized plan would likely raise their health care costs, and 56 percent said the legislation would give them "less" freedom to choose their doctors and coverage.  The poll questioned 1,002 adults nationwide and had a 3 point margin of error.

McCaskill said in an interview Wednesday that the "distrustful" crowd she faced in Hillsboro "wasn't the majority of the audience."

"It was a huge chunk of them, but I get that cynicism," she said on NBC's "Today" show. "There's a lot of distrust out there, and it's important that I get out there and listen to that."

"Just because you're loud, doesn't mean you're right," she added.

The most recent public opinion polls show that a majority of Americans -- while supportive of health care reform -- do not back Obama's call for a government-run plan. And political analysts say polling -- not town hall meetings -- is the most accurate way to measure public sentiment.

"Polling information measures public opinion on a much broader scale -- it includes everyone," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

"Most people don't have the ability to go to town hall meetings -- they have to work. If anyone does take a day off, it tells you they're not the norm," he said.

While Sabato added that one way of gauging public opinion at town halls it to ask for a "show of hands" in response to questions, he said short of the ballot box, polling is the most efficient method of measuring the so-called "majority."

The most accurate way to determine the majority would be a referendum -- a national vote. But there would be nothing "simple" about it. The country has never held a national referendum.

The idea was raised during Specter's town hall meeting when a participant suggested that the issue be decided by a majority rule.

"That's a fascinating idea, to have a referendum," Specter replied. "That's one of the ideas I'm going to take back to Washington," he added, though he noted that the federal government lacks any mechanism to hold a referendum.

Meanwhile, constituents still have the option to write and call their representatives at their offices. While opponents of reform may be corralled into the same small corner that lawmakers like McCaskill and Specter say contains a minority, it is another way to be heard.

Click here to see a list of key officials in the health care debate.