Presenting your 2020 New Hampshire field guide

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PRESENTING YOUR 2020 NEW HAMPSHIRE FIELD GUIDE
BEDFORD, N.H. — New Hampshire Democrats play favorites.

As they have in the past two open primaries, voters here are quite willing to go their own way. In 2008, that meant resuscitating Hillary Clinton’s candidacy after an embarrassing Iowa third-place finish. But in 2016, that meant spurning Clinton and giving Sen. Bernie Sanders from neighboring Vermont a huge victory.

Note that in both cases, New Hampshire complicated the contest for Democrats rather than clarifying it.

And don’t suppose that just because this is the most consequential New Hampshire primary for the party in a generation that the Granite State will be more obliging to the pressure from increasingly anxious Democrats across the country.

It isn’t just that Democrats here can be flinty New England contrarians (which they sure can be) it’s that the electorate is very different than in Iowa and much of the rest of the primary map.

This is not a convoluted caucus. This is a regular primary that doesn’t require participants to spend all night in a school gym.

Perhaps more significantly, independent voters are free to participate in the primary here. With a hot contest on the Democratic side and no Republican race, we can expect to see a serious influx of independent voters, including some who lean to the right.

For example, in 2016 when the real action was on the Republican side, there were 13 percent more voters in that contest than there were for Democrats. But when the roles were reversed in 2008, there were 20 percent more voters in the Democratic primary than the Republican one.

While every participant in Iowa was a Democrat, more than 40 percent of the voters here will be independents.

Another important thing to remember about New Hampshire voters: Taken as a bunch, this is a fairly high-end group. Thanks to good living on the Seacoast and high taxes in Massachusetts, the southern tier of the state is a haven for high-earning Boston workers and wealthy retirees. Income and college-education rates here outpace the rest of the nation significantly.

But beyond the overall strong economy and low unemployment, much of the state to the north and west is badly struggling with the same post-industrial blight that afflicts much of the Rust Belt and Appalachia.

Look for the dichotomy between these regions on Tuesday.

With all that in mind, let’s take a quick spin through the four major socio-political regions of the state:

NORTH COUNTRY
When you think of the scenic beauty of New England, you may be thinking of this remote-feeling corner of New Hampshire. Home to the White Mountains and the highest peak in the Northeast at Mt. Washington, it’s a breathtaking part of the world. There aren’t a ton of votes here, but it should be an absolute stronghold for Bernie Sanders. His coalition of college voters and downscale older voters should be a perfect fit.

Coos County
Population: 31,589

Median household income: $45,696

Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 18.1%

2016 general election: Trump 50.9%, Clinton 42%

Residents age 65 and older: 23.7%

Did you know?: The county’s name is pronounced “COO-uhs.” Those who say “COOs” will immediately give themselves away as outsiders.

2016 Democratic Primary result: Sanders 62.3%, Clinton 34.5%

2008 Democratic Primary result: Clinton 42.3%, Obama 28.7%, Edwards 21.6%

Grafton County
Population: 89,786

Median household income: $63,153

Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 40.5%

2016 general election: Clinton 55.7%, Trump 37.1%

Residents age 65 and older: 20.7%

Did you know?: This county is the home of Dartmouth College.

2016 Democratic Primary result: Sanders 66.4%, Clinton 32.3%

2008 Democratic Primary result: Obama 45.2%, Clinton 31.7%, Edwards 15.7%

Carroll County
Population: 48,779

Median household income: $61,116

Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 33.6%

2016 general election: Trump 49.4%, Clinton 43.9%

Residents age 65 and older: 27.9%

Did you know?: In 2008, then-Sen. Barack Obama was the first Democratic presidential nominee to win this county since 1912.

2016 Democratic Primary result: Sanders 62.6%, Clinton 35.8%

2008 Democratic Primary result: Obama 40.1%, Clinton 34.4%, Edwards 16.7%

CAPITAL CORRIDOR
There are lots of Republicans in the central part of the state, but the Democrats here are a prized commodity for mainstream candidates. With the state capital and lots of affluent, educated Democrats, this is where candidates like Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Joe Biden need to make a stand and not get steamrolled by Sanders.
  
Belknap County
Population: 61,022

Median household income: $68,368

Adults with bachelor’s degree: 32.4%

2016 general election: Trump 55.1%, Clinton 38.6%

Residents age 65 or older: 22.1%

Did you know?: The town of Wolfeboro has been a summer resort for centuries.

2016 Democratic Primary result: Sanders 61%, Clinton 35.5%

2008 Democratic Primary result: Clinton 37.3%, Obama 37%, Edwards 18.9%

Merrimack County
Population: 151,132

Median household income: $72,478

Adults with bachelor’s degree: 35.6%

2016 general election: Clinton 48.1%, Trump 45%

Residents age 65 or older: 18.2%

Did you know?: New Hampshire’s state capital, Concord, resides here.

2016 Democratic Primary result: Sanders 58.3%, Clinton 39.5%

2008 Democratic Primary result: Obama 38.1%, Clinton 36.2%, Edwards 17.1%

Sullivan County
Population: 43,144

Median household income: $60,780

Adults with bachelor’s degree: 26.8%

2016 general election: Trump 47.6%, Clinton 45%

Residents age 65 or older: 21.5%

Did you know?: Claremont was a haven for British royalists during the Revolutionary War. Patriots called the woods outside of town where King George III’s supporters hid out the “Tory Hole.”

2016 Democratic Primary result: Sanders 68.4%, Clinton 28.9%

2008 Democratic Primary result: Obama 39.4%, Clinton 36.2%, Edwards 17.4%

BOSTON BURBS/SEACOAST
When Elizabeth Warren contemplated her presidential run, she surely had voters like these in mind. Not only are they within the broad confines of Metro Boston and well acquainted with the Bay State’s senior senator, but there are so many affluent, reliably liberal voters here. The region is also home to lots of Republicans and conservative independents on the coast. If there’s going to be an independent surge for any Democrat, keep an eye on Rockingham County.

Strafford County
Population: 130,090

Median household income: $70,650

Adults with bachelor’s degree: 35.6%

2016 general election: Clinton 50.6%, Trump 42.1%

Residents age 65 or older: 15%

Did you know?: This county is the home to the University of New Hampshire, located in Durham, New Hampshire.

2016 Democratic Primary result: Sanders 62.9%, Clinton 34.9%

2008 Democratic Primary result: Clinton 40.7%, Obama 34.1%, Edwards 17.8%

Cheshire County
Population: 76,493

Median household income: $63,057

Adults with bachelor’s degree: 32.6%

2016 general election: Clinton 52.7%, Trump 40.3%

Residents age 65 or older: 19.9%

Did you know?: The city Keene, located here, hosted the New Hampshire Pumpkin Festival for over 20 years. The 2014 festival gained attention after parties held by Keene State College students led to riots a short distance away from the festival grounds.

2016 Democratic Primary result: Sanders 69.8%, Clinton 28.8%

2008 Democratic Primary result: Obama 39.2%, Clinton 33.8%, Edwards 16.7%

Rockingham County
Population: 309,176

Median household income: $ 90,429

Adults with bachelor’s degree: 40.7%

2016 general election: Trump 49.9%, Clinton 44.1%

Residents age 65 or older: 18%

Did you know?: This county is named for Charles Watson-Wentworth, 2nd Marquess of Rockingham, a two-time Prime Minister of Great Britain.

2016 Democratic Primary result: Sanders 56.5%, Clinton 41.5%

2008 Democratic Primary result: Clinton 42%, Obama 34.7%, Edwards 16.9%

MANCH-VEGAS
New Hampshire’s two largest cities Manchester and Nashua, are both here in the south-central portion of the state. It also happens to be among the most politically competitive. With the largest trove of votes and an electorate that cuts across demographic lines, this is where the showdown happens.

Hillsborough County
Population: 415,247

Median household income: $78,655

Adults with bachelor’s degree: 37.3%

2016 general election: Trump 46.7%, Clinton 46.5%

Residents age 65 or older: 15.7%

Did you know?:  U.S. President Franklin Pierce was born in Hillsborough in 1804.

2016 Democratic Primary result: Sanders 56.8%, Clinton 40.7%

2008 Democratic Primary result: Clinton 41.7%, Obama 34.7%, Edwards 16.3%

Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.