Fox News Poll: Women, GOP crossovers help Democrat in Arizona Senate race

Women voters along with crossover Republicans put Democrat Kyrsten Sinema narrowly ahead of Republican Martha McSally in the Arizona Senate race.

Sinema is up three percentage points over McSally (47-44 percent), according to a Fox News poll of Arizona likely voters.  Sinema’s advantage is within the poll’s margin of sampling error.

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The candidates hope to fill the open seat of retiring Republican Sen. Jeff Flake.


Sinema bests McSally by 15 points among women.  She’s also ahead by wide margins among voters under age 45 (+19) and non-whites (+32).

Meanwhile, 91 percent of Democrats back Sinema, compared to 82 percent of Republicans supporting McSally.  Some 12 percent of Republicans cross party lines and support Sinema.

Sinema is better liked than McSally.  She’s viewed more positively than negatively by 17 points (52 percent favorable vs. 35 percent unfavorable), while McSally’s net favorability rating is +4 (47-43 percent).

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Interest and certainty are also on the Democrat’s side: 77 percent of Sinema’s backers feel sure they will vote for her and 48 percent are extremely interested in the election.  For McSally, 70 percent are certain and 43 percent are extremely interested.

Overall, about one quarter of voters (24 percent) say they could change their mind before voting.

Health care (30 percent) is the top issue for Arizona likely voters, and those voters back Sinema by 45 points.  Immigration is the second concern, picked by 27 percent, and immigration voters go for McSally by 56.

President Trump won Arizona by nearly four points.  Today, views on him are split:  49 percent both approve and disapprove of the job he’s doing.

By a 30-21 percent margin, more say their financial situation is better compared to two years ago -- yet nearly half say it hasn’t changed (48 percent).

Almost equal numbers say their vote in the Senate race is intended to express support for Trump (31 percent) as to express opposition (33 percent).  For 31 percent, he isn’t a factor.

In the governor’s race, Republican incumbent Doug Ducey (51 percent) has an 11-point lead over Democrat David Garcia (40 percent).

Eighteen percent of Sinema’s supporters plan to split their ticket and back Ducey, the Republican, for governor.

The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R).  The poll was conducted September 8-11, 2018 by telephone (landline and cellphone) with live interviewers among 710 Arizona likely voters and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  Registered voters were randomly selected from a statewide voter file, and respondents answered screening questions about their likelihood to vote in the November elections.