Dems’ stumble on Kavanaugh could prove costly

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Senate Democrats react to FBI's report on Kavanaugh claims

Sen. Feinstein says the FBI investigation of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh was 'incomplete' and 'limited'; Sen. Schumer calls for the White House instructions to the FBI be made public.

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On the roster: Dems’ stumble on Kavanaugh could prove costly - I’ll Tell You What: Every Man A King - Fox Poll: Republicans make gains in red state races - Main Street GOP digs in for suburban showdowns - Oh, Leo…

DEMS’ STUMBLE ON KAVANAUGH COULD PROVE COSTLY   
The Republicans have an awful lot stacked up against them this midterm cycle. 

First, there’s history. In the 16 midterm elections since the end of World War II, the party of the president in power has lost seats in all but two – the 1998 Clinton impeachment backlash and the 2002 election conducted in the shadow of the 9/11 attacks. 

American voters tend to have a strong preference for divided government, and midterms is where that shines through.

Second, the president at the moment is generally unpopular with the broad electorate. And among Democrats, he generates the kind of white-hot anger that we have seldom seen. Democrats have historically had a midterm turnout problem with base voters, relying as they do on so many lower-income voters who tend to vote at a lower frequency. 

In the 2016 presidential election, about 60 percent of eligible voters cast ballots. In the 2014 midterms, it was only about 37 percent. Given the generally higher voter intensity among traditional Republican voters, the lag in midterm turnout has usually been bad news for Democrats. But with Trump’s seemingly infinite capacity for generating anger among Democrats, the blue team has an automatic turnout machine. 

There are strong shades of 2006 when George W. Bush was both driving persuadable voters away from the GOP and ratcheting up the intensity among core Democratic constituents. Trump is like the double espresso version of the Bush brew.  

The third disadvantage Republicans had been dragging along the campaign trail was a divided electoral base. 

We talked above about the traditional Republican voter, but 2016 was hardly the typical Republican coalition. Trump did 16 points better among the poorest voters – those with household incomes less than $30,000 – than Mitt Romney had four years earlier. But Trump was 9 points behind Romney’s showing among voters from homes with incomes between $100,000 and $200,000. There were similar shifts on education, too.

But many of those more affluent, educated voters who went against Trump still picked Republican candidates for Congress and state offices. Consider Wisconsin where Trump won by less than a point – just 22,748 votes out of nearly 3 million cast. But at the same time, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson decisively won re-election by nearly 100,000 votes. And so it was in House districts in Wisconsin and across the country.

The Republican majorities in the House and Senate depend on the support of traditional Republicans who dislike or are suspicious of Trump. And the big trouble for Republican candidates this year in districts with lots of affluent, educated voters was a sure sign that these voters were increasingly alienated from the Trumpified GOP.

Plus, there was a question about the Trump Democrats who put the president over the top in 2016. These folks likely supported Trump in spite of his party affiliation, not because of it. Republican messaging focused on tax cuts, regulatory rollbacks and a booming economy isn’t exactly ideal for motivating these $30,000-and-under voters.   

It’s impossible to say what motivated the majority of these voters, many of whom voted for Barack Obama before they voted for Trump, but one suspects that undoing Dodd-Frank was high on their lists. These are also the voters with whom concerns about Republican missteps on health insurance were most likely to do damage.

As a result, Republicans found themselves badly lagging Democrats in nearly every measure of voter intensity. And then came Dianne Feinstein.

We warned Democrats early in the Supreme Court nomination process for Judge Brett Kavanaugh that while there was considerable political opportunity in motivating their base in a rough and tumble nomination fight it also carried with it substantial risk.

The worst case scenario on the nomination for Democrats is that they would manage to both energize the opposition and leave their own folks dissatisfied. The serial mismanagement of the Kavanaugh nomination by Senate Democrats seems like it is about to accomplish that very fate.

Certainly Republicans continue to face their other main problems in November. Persuadable voters certainly continue to favor divided government and despite a small bump in Trump’s approval ratings, he continues to be both a drag in the middle and an intensifier on the left. 

But a fight over a Supreme Court seat – a matter of huge importance to traditional Republicans – contested on scorched-earth gender war conflict – something central to Trump’s cultural reactionary voters – seems to have solved the GOP’s problem with disunity and disinterest.

There’s still more than a month until Election Day and we could certainly see as much change in climate in the next four weeks as we have in the previous four. And just as the bid to stop Kavanaugh is endangering red state Democrats, it will have similarly bad consequences for Republicans running in blue states and districts.

But there’s no doubt that the Democratic bungle here seems to have cost the party its slim chance to retake the Senate. And there’s further reason to think that re-unified Republicans could manage to save some House seats.  

White House declares Kavanaugh cleared - WSJ: “The White House has found no corroboration of the allegations of sexual misconduct against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh after examining interview reports from the FBI’s latest probe into the judge’s background, according to people familiar with the matter. It was unclear whether the White House, which for weeks has raised doubts about the allegations, had completed its review of the FBI interview reports. Still, the White House’s conclusions from the report aren’t definitive at this point in the confirmation process. Senators who will decide Mr. Kavanaugh’s fate are set to review the findings on Thursday, and some of them may draw different conclusions.”

Vote set for Saturday - WashEx: “Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., took steps Wednesday that will set up a Saturday afternoon vote to confirm Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. McConnell filed a motion to end debate on Kavanaugh's nomination, and that motion will get a vote on Friday. Assuming at least 50 senators agree to end debate, Kavanaugh's final confirmation vote will come Saturday. McConnell has pledged that Kavanaugh would get an up or down vote this week. ‘It looks like we have to be here this weekend,’ Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., the top Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee, told reporters Wednesday.”

How would the vote work exactly? - USA Today: “A final up-or-down vote on President Donald Trump's nominee could happen as early as Saturday. … Senators would have up to 30 hours – divided equally between Republicans and Democrats – to debate the merits of Kavanaugh's nomination. The debate could take less than the 30-hour maximum if either party decides not to use all of its allotted time. After the time is up, the Senate would take a final vote on whether to confirm Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. A vote could happen as early as Saturday afternoon if McConnell orders the Senate to work over the weekend. It would take only a simple majority of 51 votes to approve Kavanaugh. Republicans hold 51 seats, while Democrats and two independents aligned with them hold the remaining 49.”

Heitkamp to vote no - The Hill: “Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.) said on Thursday that she will oppose Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. ‘The process has been bad ... I will be voting 'no' on Judge Kavanaugh,’ Heitkamp told a North Dakota TV station. Heitkamp, who is running for reelection, was one of three Democrats to support Neil Gorsuch, President Trump's first nominee.”

Senate Democratic staffer arrested for posting GOP senators’ personal data -WaPo: “U.S. Capitol Police announced late Wednesday that a former junior Senate Democratic staffer has been arrested for allegedly posting private information about Republican senators on the Wikipedia Internet website. Jackson A. Cosko, 27, of the District, faces five federal counts including making public restricted personal information, making threats in interstate communications, identity theft, witness tampering and unauthorized access of a government computer, police said. Cosko also faces District charges of second degree burglary and unlawful entry, police said. He is set to appear before U.S. Magistrate Deborah A. Robinson of the District on Thursday afternoon, the U.S. attorney’s office for the District said.”

The Judge’s Ruling: Capitol Hill shamelessly treats Supreme Court as political branch - Fox News Senior Judicial Analyst Judge Andrew Napolitano’s take on the current state of the Kavanaugh confirmation process: “I have argued countless times that the federal government has grossly exceeded the limitations the Constitution imposes on it. … And passing final judgment on all this -- ratifying the Wilsonian view of the federal government (the feds may do whatever there is a political will to do, except that which the Constitution expressly prohibits) and eschewing the Madisonian view (the feds may do only what the Constitution expressly authorizes) -- is the Supreme Court. As the reach of federal power has expanded, the power of the Supreme Court to restrain or unleash that reach has expanded. … The Supreme Court should not be political. It is the anti-democratic branch of government. Its constitutional obligation is not to do the people's will but to preserve personal liberty from the tyranny of the majority.” More here.

THE RULEBOOK: NUMBERS ARE HARD
“Nations in general, even under governments of the more popular kind, usually commit the administration of their finances to single men or to boards composed of a few individuals, who digest and prepare, in the first instance, the plans of taxation, which are afterwards passed into laws by the authority of the sovereign or legislature.” – Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 36

TIME OUT: WHO’S WHO?
Paris Review: “William Hooker did not have to look far to find another man with his name. … But the tale of two Hookers is a strange one, for both men were not only contemporaries, they were also both wedded to gardens and bewitched by greenery. … But there were two William Hookers, and only one of them was responsible for the most enviable of inventions: Hooker’s green. The better-known William Hooker was the director of Kew Gardens, one of the largest and most diverse botanical gardens in the world. … The lesser-known William Hooker was six years older than the knighted William. … He was particularly adept at depicting greenery, and one day, he mixed a color that would bear his name. He took gamboge, a yellow made from the sap of a deciduous tree, and swirled it with Prussian blue, the first modern synthetic pigment and a color phenomenon in its own right. … According to Kew Gardens, some of the works on paper stored in their vast collection are wrongly attributed to William Hooker the director, when it is more likely they were done by William Hooker the illustrator.”

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SCOREBOARD
Trump job performance 
Average approval: 42.4 percent
Average disapproval: 53.2 percent
Net Score: -10.8 points
Change from one week ago: down 0.8 points 
[Average includes: NPR/PBS/Marist: 43% approve - 53% disapprove; Quinnipiac University: 41% approve - 53% disapprove; Gallup: 42% approve - 53% disapprove; Pew Research Center: 40% approve - 55% disapprove; Fox News: 46% approve - 52% disapprove.]

Control of House
Republican average: 42 percent
Democratic average: 49.8 percent
Advantage: Democrats plus 7.8 points
Change from one week ago: Democratic advantage down 1.4 points 
[Average includes: NPR/PBS/Marist: 48% Dems - 42% GOP; Quinnipiac University: 49% Dems - 42% GOP; Pew Research Center: 52% Dems - 42% GOP; Gallup: 51% Dems - 42% GOP; Fox News: 49% Dems - 42% GOP.]

I’LL TELL YOU WHAT: EVERY MAN A KING
Did everyone do their reading? This week, Dana Perino and Chris Stirewalt bring back the I'll Tell You What book club! And it only seemed fitting that they review Chris's debut book, “Every Man a King.” Plus, the duo talk the latest on the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh and trivia. LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE HERE

FOX POLL: REPUBLICANS MAKE GAINS IN RED STATE RACES
Fox News: “A new round of Fox News battleground polls shows a Republican trend in the fight for the U.S. Senate. The GOP candidates are helped by increased interest in the election among Republicans and pro-Donald Trump sentiment. There’s been an uptick in GOP interest in all five states surveyed.  Compared to early September, the number of Republicans feeling ‘extremely’ interested in the upcoming election is up by 2 points in Arizona, up by 9 points in Indiana, up 8 points in both Missouri and North Dakota, and up 11 points in Tennessee.  In each state, Republicans are now just as likely as Democrats to say they are extremely interested -- erasing an edge Democrats had in several states last month. The battle over Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court might explain increased interest in the election among Republicans. And how incumbent Senate Democrats vote on Kavanaugh could tip tight races, especially in Missouri and North Dakota. Voting against his nomination hurts more than helps the Democrats in those states. However, the races are far from settled. Only one of the Senate candidates has a lead outside the survey’s margin of sampling error. And that same candidate is also the only front-runner above the important marker of 50 percent support from their electorate.”

Stabenow opens wide lead in Michigan - WDIV: “Sen. Debbie Stabenow continues to hold a double-digit lead against Republican challenger John James, according to a new WDIV/Detroit News poll. Debbie Stabenow leads John James by a margin of 52.7 percent-34.7 percent -- an 18-point lead. Third party candidates take 2.8 percent. 9.8 percent of voters are undecided. Debbie Stabenow has 98.8 percent name identification breaking 48.5 percent favorable to 32.2 percent unfavorable. Her favorable has fallen slightly from the early September survey when it was 54.3 percent.John James has 58.0 percent name identification breaking 22.2 percent favorable to 16.5 percent unfavorable. 19.3 percent have no opinion of him. But 39.5 percent of likely voters still do not know who John James is. John James name identification in early September was 54.3 percent reflecting a minor increase in his name identification over the past month.” 

MAIN STREET GOP DIGS IN FOR SUBURBAN SHOWDOWNS
Roll Call: “…it is clear that the midterm results will move Republicans further to the right. … In the House, GOP losses will be disproportionately large in the suburbs and among members of the Republican Main Street Partnership, the House GOP group… Reps. Barbara Comstock of Virginia and Mike Coffman of Colorado are headed for defeat, and Democrats are likely to flip the seats of retiring pragmatists such as Florida’s Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Pennsylvania’s Ryan A. Costello, and New Jersey’s Frank A. LoBiondo and Rodney Frelinghuysen, as well as the seats of former Pennsylvania Reps. Charlie Dent and Patrick Meehan. Reps. Tom MacArthur of New Jersey, Kevin Yoder of Kansas and Peter Roskam of Illinois are running even or behind their Democratic challengers, as are Mimi Walters of California and Leonard Lance of New Jersey. (Roskam is not listed as a member on the Main Street website.) … But at least 30 of the House members listed on the Main Street website are now at risk in the midterms, and when Rep. Fred Upton of Michigan starts to crawl on to some endangered Republican lists, you know that most of the remaining GOP pragmatists on Capitol Hill have reason to be nervous.”

Dems looking up in California House contests - LAT: “Republicans are at risk of a wipeout in California’s six most hotly contested congressional races, a new poll shows — a result that could radically reshape the state’s political map, with major consequences nationally. But the poll, conducted for the Los Angeles Times by UC Berkeley’s Institute for Governmental Studies, also underscores how close many of the contests remain. The Democratic tide threatens to swamp congressional districts in Southern California’s suburbs that Republicans have controlled for decades. That would significantly boost Democrats’ chances of gaining the additional 23 seats they need to win a majority in the House. But if the tide ebbs only slightly, the GOP could emerge with much of its control intact. With the Nov. 6 midterm election less than five weeks away, none of the Republicans in the state’s six most competitive races have a lead. The Democrats lead strongly in one race and narrowly in three others, and two are dead heats, the Berkeley IGS Poll shows. Reaction to President Trump appears to drive the results more than any specific issue and, in most cases, more than the individual candidates.”

Trump’s next campaign swing covers six states in 10 days  - Reuters: “U.S. President Donald Trump plans to visit six states over the next 10 days to energize his supporters to turn out for Republicans in tight races for the House of Representatives in upcoming congressional elections, according to a White House memo. Trump’s Republican Party is at risk of losing control of the House in the Nov. 6 midterm vote at a time when, historically, the party in control of the White House loses ground in Congress. Trump heads on Thursday to Minnesota where Republicans want to give a boost to two House candidates: one in an open race and another, a first-term incumbent, who is running in a Democratic-leaning district. He then plans to visit Kansas on Saturday, Iowa on Tuesday, Pennsylvania on Wednesday, Ohio on Friday and Kentucky on Saturday, Oct. 13, according to the internal memo seen by Reuters.”

Bishop struggling in Michigan - NYT: “Elissa Slotkin is a former intelligence analyst and senior Defense Department official [with] 34% favorable rating; 27% unfavorable; 39% don’t know. Mike Bishop is the current representative and a former state lawmaker [with] 40% favorable rating; 38% unfavorable; 22% don’t know. This district includes Democratic-leaning areas near the state capital and Michigan State University, and extends to the Republican-leaning outer suburbs of Detroit. Mr. Bishop served as a state lawmaker before his election to Congress in 2014. His congressional votes have aligned with President Trump on nearly all measures, including the tax overhaul and efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Ms. Slotkin, a political newcomer, won endorsements from several prominent Republicans who knew her from her national security days in the Bush and Obama administrations.”

Democratic candidate takes the lead in key Minnesota race - NYT: “Angie Craig is a former health care manufacturing executive who ran two years ago [with] 39% favorable rating; 31% unfavorable; 29% don’t know. Jason Lewis won this open seat in 2016 and is a former radio talk show host [with] 31% favorable rating; 42% unfavorable; 27% don’t know. This district is a mixture of Twin City suburb and rural farmland. It is a classic battleground in presidential elections. Mr. Lewis was criticized by Ms. Craig and Emily’s List when misogynistic comments he had made on his radio show resurfaced. He has become known for his unwavering support of the president, even being called ‘Minnesota’s Mini-Trump’ by The Atlantic. Ms. Craig, who in 2016 also faced a significant third-party candidate, has been outraising the incumbent.”

PLAY-BY-PLAY
McConnell designs gambit to handle other issues in Senate, while advancing Kavanaugh nomination - Fox News

Capitol police probe additional doxxing incidents targeting senators, including Rand Paul - Fox News

Senate sends opioid legislation to Trump - WaPo

Ellison may step down from the DNC over domestic abuse claims - WCCO

AUDIBLE: WE’LL TAKE ‘REGRETS, HE’S HAD A FEW’ FOR $800
“I didn't realize I was to ask a simple question and then let the gentlemen go at each other.” – Alex Trebek, the Jeopardy! Host, in an apology for his performance Monday night as a moderator in the Pennsylvania gubernatorial debate between Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat, and Republican Scott Wagner.

FROM THE BLEACHERS
“Hi Chris, I’m curious about your choice of descriptive words in response to Mr. Ciao when describing Judge Kavanaugh’s defense of the charges against him. ‘I would hope that Kavanaugh would work in his demeanor and his decisions.’ He was being accused of some heinous acts by some late comers when he got emotional and wrought up about those things being leveled against him. I submit that anyone’s life being destroyed by accusations both in the committee hearings and in the media they would be hard pressed to maintain ‘composure’. I contend that if he had just acted rational and measured, he would be criticized just about as much, at least by the pundits in the media.” – Will Gibbs, Mossyrock, Wash.

[Ed. note: I do not like walking along high edges – steep canyon trails, rooftops, etc. I’m fine with heights, but not the sensation of being on the edge. I’ve been known to sit right down in such situations. It’s understandable and quite human, so I don’t worry too much about it and make sure to avoid situations where that might be a problem. But if I wanted to work in construction on high steel it would be a serious problem. Just watching those folks hop from girder to girder gives me the willies. It takes something special to do that kind of work. I understand that you believe Kavanaugh’s response was understandable, but we ask judges, especially on the highest court, to do more than what is understandable.] 

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OH, LEO…
WTHR: “A child, a paper shredder and envelope full of cash. You know where this story is going. Ben Belknap is a huge Utah Utes football fan. When his parents bought him season tickets, he and his wife Jackee decided to pay them back. So they saved up enough cash and put it in an envelope to give to them in person. This past weekend, though, the envelope disappeared. After tearful consideration, Jackee realized her son Leo had shredded the money – more than $1,000. Luckily, the Belknaps could get it all back through a government department dedicated to mutilated money. Ben Belknap checked and got the answer from Uncle Sam. ‘He said, ‘Bag it up in little Ziploc bags, mail it to D.C., and in one to two years, you'll get your money back.’’” 

AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“One of the more salutary outcomes of the recent election is that Democrats are finally beginning to question the wisdom of basing their fortunes on identity politics. … They’re reconsidering now not because identity politics balkanizes society, creates state-chosen favored groups and fosters communal strife. They’re reconsidering because it’s not working.” – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) writing in the Washington Post on Nov. 24, 2016. 

Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.