Iran is a complete economic basket case, Larry Kudlow says
FOX Business host Larry Kudlow discusses the blockade on Iran in the Strait of Hormuz on ‘Kudlow.’
President Donald Trump stood before the United Nations and presented Iran with a choice: reach an agreement that would allow the country to rebuild or face the destruction of the Islamic Republic. The following day, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian rejected surrender while leaving the door open to negotiations.
More than seven months into the war, Washington still has not answered the question that has dogged American policy since 1979: What political outcome is America trying to achieve, and how will military force bring it about?
I was an Army officer serving in West Germany when Iranian militants seized our embassy in Tehran on Nov. 4, 1979. Fifty-two Americans endured 444 days of captivity. That crisis began a hostile relationship that has outlasted eight American presidents.
TRUMP KEEPS NEGOTIATING WHILE IRAN PLAYS THE LONG GAME AMERICA KEEPS MISSING
In April 1988, after USS Samuel B. Roberts struck an Iranian mine, President Ronald Reagan authorized Operation Praying Mantis. In a single day, American forces sank two Iranian ships and wrecked two surveillance platforms. Yet the confrontation continued.
Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz are visible near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, Aug. 27, 2026. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA West Asia News Agency)
The 2015 nuclear agreement sought to constrain Tehran through negotiated restrictions and international inspections. Trump withdrew from that agreement in 2018 and restored economic sanctions. Neither approach settled the wider confrontation.
TRUMP’S IRAN WAR NOW COMES DOWN TO ONE BRUTAL QUESTION: WHAT COMES NEXT?
Trump went much further. American strikes in June 2025 hit three key nuclear facilities. Then, on Feb. 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, beginning the current war. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei died on the first day.
Seven months later, Iran has sustained extensive military losses, as Trump emphasized in his Sept. 22 U.N. address. But damaging Iran’s forces is not the same as achieving the campaign’s political objectives.
TRUMP HAS 3 CHOICES TO DEFINE VICTORY IF HE WANTS TO BEAT IRAN. NONE OF THEM ARE EASY
As a retired Army officer and former Pentagon strategist, I spent much of my career on the relationship between military operations and national objectives. Destroying an adversary’s forces is a military result. Victory is the political outcome those operations were meant to produce.
Nowhere does that distinction matter more than in Iran.
THREE CHOICES NOW DEFINE TRUMP'S IRAN WAR AND ALL OF THEM HAVE A COST
What is the Trump administration trying to accomplish? Secretary of War Pete Hegseth put it bluntly in March: "no nukes, no navy, and a complete dismantling of their missile program and defense industrial base." Reopening the Strait of Hormuz joined the list later. The administration has never explicitly declared regime change a goal, yet the president now speaks of destroying the Islamic Republic.
Those are military tasks, not a political end state, and even the nuclear goal has wavered. In April, Trump said of Iran’s buried uranium, "I don’t care about that." Two weeks later he promised, "We’re going to take it."
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL HINGES ON IAEA ACCESS TO LONG-BLOCKED ATOMIC WEAPON SITES, EXPERTS SAY
That matters because America has lost its best window into Iran’s program. Until Feb. 28, International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors were still working inside Iran, and the agency was tracking activity at the Isfahan tunnels where Tehran stored much of its enriched uranium. Iran had barred inspectors from the sites bombed in June 2025, but the agency still had eyes in the country. Since the war began, inspectors have been unable to visit any nuclear facility except the Bushehr power plant.
Destroying an adversary’s forces is a military result. Victory is the political outcome those operations were meant to produce.
Before the June 2025 strikes, the agency estimated Iran held 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60%, enough for about 10 weapons if refined further. The IAEA cannot verify where that material is today. On September 9, the agency’s board referred Iran to the U.N. Security Council. Without inspectors, no one can confirm what the bombing achieved.
AFTER 6 MONTHS OF WAR, US MUST PREPARE FOR A FUTURE AFTER IRAN’S GOVERNMENT FALLS
Beyond the bomb, the political objective is murkier. Is Washington trying to change how the regime behaves, or to end the regime itself? Those are different wars.
Changing a government’s conduct requires defined concessions and a means of verifying them. Replacing a government requires knowing who governs afterward. Iraq taught that lesson: defeating Saddam Hussein’s military proved far easier than establishing a durable political order.
IRAN REGIME CHANGE TALK RESURFACES AS TRUMP SAYS TEHRAN 'WANTS TO MEET' AMID US STRIKES
The Islamic Republic remains in power. Reuters reported in April that the Revolutionary Guards had tightened their grip on military strategy and major political decisions. The war has strengthened the institution most committed to continuing it.
Time favors Tehran. Iran’s leadership is prepared for a prolonged confrontation, while American presidents depend on public support, and that support is thin.
IRAN ‘MISCALCULATING’ BY BETTING ON MIDTERMS AFTER 3-HOUR TALKS, TRUMP OFFICIALS WARN
Americans who lived through the Cold War needed no briefing on the Soviet threat. Thousands of nuclear warheads were aimed at our cities. Iran’s threat is harder to see. The administration first cited an imminent danger, then shifted its rationale more than once.
A June Reuters/Ipsos survey found that only 24% of Americans considered the war worth its costs. In July, most said Trump had not clearly explained its objectives.
What Americans do understand is the price at the pump. Gasoline topped $4 a gallon in April for the first time since 2022, and AAA’s national average is about $4.43 today. The Strait of Hormuz helps explain why. Oil flows through the strait fell from 21.6 million barrels per day late last year to 4.9 million this spring. Crude shipments have since rebounded to near prewar levels, but shipments of refined fuels such as gasoline and diesel remain far below their prewar volume, helping keep fuel prices elevated.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian speaks as he holds a picture of the late Ali Khamenei, former supreme leader of Iran, during the 81st United Nations General Assembly at the United Nations Headquarters in New York, on Sept. 23, 2026. (TIMOTHY A. CLARY / AFP via Getty Images)
Trump himself told the U.N. he believes Iran is waiting for the November midterm results before making a deal. On Sept. 29, the Revolutionary Guards issued a 25-page open letter urging American voters to reject Trump’s policies. Tehran is working the American home front.
Renewed negotiations have exposed the gaps. Tehran has proposed reopening Hormuz in exchange for relief from sanctions and the naval blockade, while Washington continues to demand restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. Previous ceasefire arrangements have failed to hold. Any durable settlement will depend on verification, which brings the inspectors back to the center.
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Nearly half a century after the hostage crisis, America’s military capabilities have changed beyond recognition. The strategic question has not. Military success can be measured in destroyed targets. A durable political settlement requires a different accounting.
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The Cold War generation sustained a long and costly struggle because presidents explained the stakes in plain terms. Trump owes Americans the same plain talk now. He must tell them what victory in Iran looks like, and why it is worth $4+ gasoline.
