Young Democrat voter leaning towards Trump amid Biden missteps
Republican voter Stacey Fox and Democrat voter Jahmiel Jackson discuss their top issues and candidates ahead of the 2024 presidential election
Gloomy on the economy. Fears over inflation. Doubts about Biden administration policies. It all leads to high disapproval among groups the president is counting on to win re-election.
Here are five takeaways from the latest Fox News survey.
-- Inflation worries aren’t fading, as 91% are concerned about higher prices. It was 90% in May and March.
-- 8 in 10 are concerned about housing costs, and almost as many about paying their bills.
-- Views on the economy remain negative by more than three-to-one.
-- A growing share think the administration’s actions to get inflation under control are hurting the economy, up 13 points compared to earlier this year.
-- President Biden’s political base appears wobbly with record disapproval among loyal constituencies.
Here are the numbers behind those findings.
Biden receives career-high disapproval among suburban voters (61% disapprove), women (60%), and voters under age 45 (58%), and he’s only one point away from record disapproval among Hispanic voters (57% disapprove).
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A Fox News poll on President Biden's job performance. (Fox News)
Eighty-one percent of Democrats approve, down from a high of 95% in April 2021.
Overall, 41% approve of Biden’s performance and 58% disapprove. His marks have only been lower once: 40-59% in July 2022. Last month, it was 42-58%.
A Fox News poll on President Biden's job performance. (Fox News)
In addition, a record 44% strongly disapprove of Biden, more than double the 19% who strongly approve.
Four years ago, former President Trump’s ratings were a touch better: 45% approved and 54% disapproved in September 2019, including 26% who strongly approved and 43% who strongly disapproved. Trump’s strongly-approve number never fell below 25%.
Just 22% of voters say the economy is in excellent or good shape, down from 30% earlier in Biden’s term (September 2021). Three times as many, 78%, rate economic conditions negatively (only fair or poor).
On the individual level, 37% feel their finances are excellent/good, while 63% say only fair/poor.
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The White House in Washington, DC. (Yasin Ozturk/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Fully 91% are worried about inflation, including 96% of Republicans, 90% of independents, and 85% of Democrats. Some 63% are extremely concerned, up from 59% a year ago.
Eight in ten are concerned about the cost of housing (79%), while three-quarters feel that way about their taxes (75%). Seventy-four percent are concerned about being able to pay their bills, up 10 points since May.
The number worried about unemployment stands at 65%, down 6 points compared to two years ago.
A Fox News poll on what voters are most concerned about. (Fox News)
Overall, 53% think Biden’s efforts to get inflation under control are hurting rather than helping, up from 40% in April. Some 36% didn’t think the administration’s actions had made much difference in April, now just 22% feel that way. The portion feeling Biden is helping held steady at 24%.
A Fox News poll on the Biden administration's handling of inflation. (Fox News)
"Virtually all voters who came to a decision about the effect of Biden’s policies over the summer decided they were doing more harm than good," says Democrat Chris Anderson, who conducts surveys for Fox with Republican Daron Shaw.
The feeling that Biden’s policies are making inflation worse is increasing across the political spectrum. Since April, it’s up among Black voters (+16), independents (+15), Republicans (+14), women (+12), and Democrats (+10).
The numbers are closer on White House efforts to support small businesses (34% helping vs. 37% hurting), increase salaries for workers (32% vs. 35%), and make it easier for businesses to attract workers (27% vs. 37%).
"The president’s camp has made a major push to sell Bidenomics in advance of the 2024 campaign," says Shaw. "At the risk of sounding like a dog-faced pony soldier, the data suggest they’re running up against a reality starkly defined by higher prices."
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President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the Supreme Court's decision on the Administration's student debt relief program in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on Friday, June 30, 2023. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
Biden receives lopsided negative ratings across the issues: inflation (29% approve-69% disapprove), immigration (32-64%), the economy (35-63%), and taxes (35-60%). His best marks are on foreign policy (38-58), but he’s still underwater by 20 points.
Among Democrats, 73% approve of Biden on foreign policy, 70% on the economy, 68% on taxes, and 63% on immigration, compared to 59% on inflation.
Like on his job rating, Biden’s personal favorable ratings are trending negative. While 40% have a positive view of him, a record 60% view him negatively. His favorable rating has only been lower once, and that was in 2005, when he was unknown to most voters. Last month his ratings were 43-57%. And in fall 2020, 55% viewed him favorably and 44% unfavorably.
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It’s the same story for Vice President Kamala Harris, as 38% view her favorably (a near record low) and a new high of 60% unfavorably. Her highest favorable was 54% in December 2020 and her lowest was 37% in December 2022.
A Fox News poll on Kamala Harris' favorability. (Fox News)
While these numbers paint a bleak picture for the president, they don’t necessarily spell checkmate for the 2024 election, largely because some voters who somewhat disapprove of Biden may still vote for him. In a hypothetical matchup against Trump, 38% of those who somewhat disapprove of Biden support him, while Trump gets 46% of that group. Plus, almost all of those who somewhat approve of Biden back him. That’s how the race is tight among voters overall: 46% Biden vs. 48% Trump.
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Conducted September 9-12, 2023, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,012 registered voters nationwide who were randomly selected from a voter file and spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for all registered voters.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
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