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• The Edge: Iowa loss turns down Trump’s volume in N.H.
• Jeb says plan was to deploy Dubya ‘nearing the end’
• Bush, Christie camps coordinate to kill off Rubio
• Debate, poll foretell long slog for Hillary
• Still gotcha
THE EDGE: IOWA LOSS TURNS DOWN TRUMP’S VOLUME IN N.H.
We know that Iowa caucus results can change the discussion in New Hampshire and here’s the proof. Prior to Monday night, Donald Trump dominated media mentions within the state of New Hampshire the same way he dominated polls. But, according to research by The New Analytics Company, Trump’s lead in mentions has been cut in half.
Second-place Marco Rubio slipped a fraction of a point but Trump’s share of media time was robbed by a host of other candidates, especially those who are placing long-shot bets on the Granite State. Trump’s slippage brings him nearly into parity with Rubio in the New Hampshire media.
Iowa winner Ted Cruz got a boost and now the overall discussion in the first-in-the-nation primary state reflects what polls have been showing: a three-man race with no one else even close.
The team at New Analytics has built The Edge, a unique tool to measure which candidates are being talked about the most, and provided the first look to Fox News First.
Here are the rankings for the candidate’s shares of media mentions in New Hampshire after the Iowa caucuses. Points gained or lost from before Iowa are listed in brackets. See the full results here.
Donald Trump, 31.67 [-7.35]; Marco Rubio, 26.09 [-.45]; Ted Cruz, 21.58 [+1.48]; Jeb Bush, 7.28 [+3.77]; Chris Christie, 5.61 [+5.22]; John Kasich, 5.27 [-4.88]; Ben Carson, 13.97 [+2.21]
Q Poll shows three-man race - Fox News: “A new national poll shows Republicans continue to back Donald Trump for a White House bid but believe Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has the best shot of beating a Democratic candidate in the general election. Trump leads the GOP pack with 31 percent, followed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz with 22 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio with 19 percent, according to the Quinnipiac University National poll released Friday…The poll found that the strongest candidates to go head-to-head in a general election match-up would be Sanders and Rubio.”
JEB SAYS PLAN WAS TO DEPLOY DUBYA ‘NEARING THE END’
MSNBC’s morning show has become something of a therapy session by those upset by the rise of Marco Rubio. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush joined host Joe Scarborough, a former Republican Florida congressmen famous for his Rubio resentments, for some therapeutic venting this morning. Bush and Scarborough commiserated about the success of a candidate whom they both deem unworthy, but Bush slipped a bit when talking about his own campaign.
Bush was asked by another host why it took him so long to deploy his brother, former President George W. Bush, in the primary race. The super PAC trying to keep Jeb Bush’s campaign afloat unveiled an ad featuring the 43rd president, a sharp departure from the original campaign strategy of distancing him from his older brother. The struggling presidential contender explained the timing by saying that the “intention was to do it nearing the end.”
Who would have thought that the end would be near for former frontrunner Bush even before the first primary was held?
Righteous brother - “We are righteous in making sure there’s no coordination [with the super PAC he founded to back his campaign]. But I knew [George W. Bush] was going to campaign for me in South Carolina, for which I’m grateful…I love my brother and a lot of Republicans do as well.” – Jeb Bush on “The Kelly File” Watch here.
Bush, Christie camps coordinate to kill off Rubio - NYT: “Members of the Bush and Christie campaigns have communicated about their mutual desire to halt Mr. Rubio’s rise in the polls, according to Republican operatives familiar with the conversations. While emails, texts and phone calls between operatives in rival campaigns are not uncommon in the tight-knit world of political strategists, the contact among senior aides in the two campaigns has drifted toward musings about what can be done to stop or at least slow Mr. Rubio, the operatives said. In a sign of a budding alliance, the aides have, for example, exchanged news articles that raise potential areas of vulnerability for Mr. Rubio. There is no formal coordination, the operatives stressed, but rather a recognition of a shared agenda. ‘We do have similar goals,’ an adviser to Mr. Christie said.”
[The Hill: “Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R) will endorse Chris Christie in the Republican presidential race, a new report says.”]
Jeb & Co. focus on Santorum ‘accomplishments’ stumble - USA Today: “The intra-party battle against Marco Rubio is focusing on his Senate experience — or lack thereof…Bush told MSNBC’s Morning Joe, ‘and the net effect is that we’re languishing as a nation.’ Christie has leveled similar criticisms, noting that one of Rubio’s new endorsers — former presidential candidate Rick Santorum — couldn’t cite any specific Rubio accomplishments in the Senate. The New Jersey governor also describes Rubio as a ‘bubble boy’ who avoids tough questions. Rubio’s poll numbers in New Hampshire are rising in the wake of his strong finish in Iowa. Christie and Bush are looking to bring down those numbers, seeking to become the main establishment alternative to Iowa winner Ted Cruz and the still-well-polling Donald Trump.”
[NRO’s Jonah Goldberg makes the case that calling Rubio the “Republican Obama” may not actually be a bad thing.]
Fox News Sunday: The Anti-Rubio caucus - Mr. Sunday has the whole crew of candidates hoping to knock of Marco Rubio in New Hampshire: Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and John Kasich. Watch “Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace” at 2 p.m. and 6 p.m. ET on the Fox News Channel. Check local listings for broadcast times in your area.
WITH YOUR SECOND CUP OF COFFEE…
The ethics of animal conservation can be tricky. Sometimes conservation of one species requires the elimination of another. The New Yorker brings us the tale of the Channel Island Turkeys, which were eradicated from the islands to save the native foxes, but the story goes deeper than that: “The sheep on Santa Cruz Island, off the coast of Southern California, were the first to go. They had been imported by schooner in the mid-nineteenth century, and, beginning in the early nineteen-eighties, tens of thousands of their feral descendants were eradicated. Later it was the hogs’ turn to face the gun. Between 2005 and 2006, more than five thousand were killed. By the following year, Santa Cruz was certified pig-free—a boon, perhaps, for the island’s oak trees, whose acorns the animals particularly loved. The next round of exterminations targeted several hundred turkeys.”
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Real Clear Politics Averages
National GOP nomination: Trump 33.2 percent; Cruz 20.7 percent; Rubio 13.3 percent; Carson 7.8 percent
New Hampshire GOP Primary: Trump 32.4 percent; Rubio 15 percent; Cruz 12.6 percent; Kasich 11 percent; Bush 9.8 percent
National Dem nomination: Clinton 50.5 percent; Sanders 37.2 percent
New Hampshire Dem Primary: Sanders 57.8; Clinton 35.5 percent
General Election Clinton vs. Trump: Clinton +2.7 points
Generic Congressional Vote: Republicans +0.5
DEBATE, POLL FORETELL LONG SLOG FOR HILLARY
A contentious, sometimes nasty, Democratic debate between presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton and her rival, socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., foreshadowed a long, ugly march to victory for Clinton. And a new poll out today shows just how long it might be.
The Quinnipiac University national poll shows Clinton’s support has collapsed since the last survey in December, losing nearly 20 points to fall into a statistical tie with Sanders. Clinton is still popular with Democrats, but hard sentiment seems to be growing. Some 22 percent of Democrats hold unfavorable views of Clinton, more than double Sanders. The Vermont senator also holds the highest overall favorability among any candidate in either party at 44 percent and performs better in the general election matchup against all Republicans than Clinton. That’s strong evidence that her electability argument isn’t working.
Clinton’s battering of Sanders in Thursday’s debate suggests she is aware of her predicament. But she likely worsened her plight as she not only went scorched earth after Sanders but also made several head-scratching claims including that she was not part of the Democratic establishment.
She can still be considered a lock for the nomination but it is almost as if her preparations for a long, ugly process was a prediction rather than a precaution.
[Dan Balz was ringside for fight night at the University of New Hampshire. Read his blow-by-blow account here.]
POWER PLAY: SANDERS CHILLS HILLARY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is giving presumed Democratic nominee a run for her money in the Granite State. He’s favored to win and being from a neighboring state his favorability makes sense. But does his win actually hurt Hillary? GOPAC Inc., Chairman Dave Avella and Democratic strategist Joe Trippi weigh in to Chris Stirewalt. WATCH HERE.
Dem chairwoman holds the line for Hillary’s contested Iowa win - “There are over 1,800 precincts in Iowa. The party ran a caucus that is very complex. At the same time, in every one of those precincts. That said, challenging job, the closest race that we have had in their caucus’ history and I’m confident the process and outcome was effective and without question.” – Debbie Wasserman Schultz, DNC chairwoman, on the DMR editorial slamming the Iowa Democratic caucus in an interview with Shannon Bream.
[Manhattan Institute health care scholar Yevgeniy Feyman finds lots of similarities between the health plans proposed by Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.]
#mediabuzz - Host Howard Kurtz heads to New Hampshire this week to talk with New Hampshire Union Leader editor Joe McQuaid ahead of his state’s pivotal primary. Watch “#mediabuzz” Sunday at 11 a.m. ET, with a second airing at 5 p.m.
CBC: “Mousetraps: they just don’t make ‘em like they used to. A Victorian mousetrap is still doing what it was designed to do, catch mice — albeit accidentally. ‘Isn’t it amazing that a mousetrap that is 155 years old is still doing its job?’ says Guy Baxter, an archivist with the Museum of English Rural Life in Reading, England. Baxter says the mousetrap, which was on display at the museum captured a mouse…The trap was manufactured by Colin Pullinger & Sons’ in 1861. It’s a time when Queen Victoria was on the throne, the U.S. Civil war had just started and Canada was still ‘British North America.’ They also had mice. ‘Let’s pay tribute to the Victorians, and how wonderfully they managed to make things,’ Baxter says.”
Chris Stirewalt is digital politics editor for Fox News. Want FOX News First in your inbox every day? Sign up here.
Chris Stirewalt joined Fox News Channel (FNC) in July of 2010 and serves as politics editor based in Washington, D.C. Additionally, he authors the daily Fox News Halftime Report political news note and co-hosts the hit podcast, Perino & Stirewalt: I'll Tell You What. He also is the host of Power Play, a feature video series on FoxNews.com. Stirewalt makes frequent appearances on network programs, including America’s Newsroom, Special Report with Bret Baier and Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace. He also provides expert political analysis for FNC’s coverage of state, congressional and presidential elections.