BY BILL O'REILLY
White working Americans and President Obama -- that is the subject of this evening's "Talking Points" memo. A new Associated Press poll says, "White working Americans are now President Obama's biggest nightmare."
Back in 2008, white voters without college degrees favored Republican congressional candidates by 11 percentage points. But now, according to the A.P., that figure has doubled: 58 percent of white working Americans say they will vote Republican in November. Just 36 percent say they will vote Democrat. So, what the heck happened?
Well, first and foremost, the economy is still very rough and workers are on edge, but minority workers are apprehensive as well. So, there must be more to this. "Talking Points" believes it is the class factor. President Obama and the Democrats, simply not in sync with white working class values. The president's positions on illegal immigration, the Ground Zero mosque, things like religion and guns do not correspond with the prevailing wisdom of white working class precincts.
Unlike President Reagan, who also had trouble in his first midterm election, Mr. Obama had separated himself from many blue collar working white people. Simply because they see he doesn't understand them. "Talking Points" has advised the president many times that suing the state of Arizona, failing to prosecute the Black Panthers who menaced the polling place in Philadelphia, and criticizing the Cambridge Massachusetts Police Department, among other issues, were all things that could have been easily handled in other ways. But the president sees it differently and has not reached out to white blue collar voters.
The liberal media would have you believe that white working class Americans are opposing Mr. Obama because of his skin color. That is a blatant lie. While there are bigots in every group, it is the cultural disposition of the president. That is his problem now. By the way, if you are going to go to the skin color route, what about the fact that 90 percent of African-Americans continue to support Mr. Obama? Any skin color in that?
Now, the liberal media ignores the cultural aspect of Mr. Obama's declining poll numbers because it, itself, looks down on white working class Americans. For proof of that, all you have to do is analyze the media's coverage of the Tea Party. Losing white working class voters is a serious situation for any president, but not a fatal one. If Mr. Obama could rally blacks, Hispanics, and committed liberals to his cause and the Democratic cause in great numbers, he might be able to retain power in November.
But, a new study from the Pew Hispanic Center says about half of Hispanic American voters might not show up in November, certainly bad news for Mr. Obama. In politics, as in life, perception is reality. White blue collar voters now perceive the president does not think the way they do. And, that is likely to be reflected in the November vote. And, that is "The Memo."
Now, for the "Top Story" tonight, Dick Morris continues to predict the big Republican victory in November. He joins us now from West Palm Beach, Florida. So, am I going wrong in my analysis of the blue collar precincts?
DICK MORRIS, AUTHOR OF THE BOOK "2010 TAKE BACK AMERICA": Not in the conclusion. But, I think your reasoning is a little off. I don't think it's cultural in terms of the mosque and immigration and that stuff nearly as much as it is fiscal and economic. The amazing thing that's happened at the grass roots level in this country is that whereas it used to be dominated by social populist, evangelicals and the like. Now, it's dominated by Tea Party activists, who are mainly focused on the debt, the deficit, the unemployment rate, the economy, Obama care, not social issues --
O'REILLY: All right, let me stop you. Let me challenge you on that. If that is true, then why are the minority blue collar workers staying with the president, because they are suffering probably more. The poverty rate is up. It's harder to get jobs for people, who are ill-educated in this country. But, they haven't bailed out on the president. So it's got to be cultural.
MORRIS: Well, no. Blacks are for Obama because he is black.
O'REILLY: Come on.
MORRIS: That's not cultural, that's just racial.
O'REILLY: You think every single African-American supports President Obama because of skin color? I don't believe that.
MORRIS: All right, I think a white democrat would also get 90 percent of the vote. But, there would be some disenchantment and now there is none among the black community.
O'REILLY: But, I can't understand why there isn't.
MORRIS: I think that Latinos --
O'REILLY: Go ahead -- Latinos?
MORRIS: But, I think the Latinos are moving away from obama. Now, they're voting with their feet, not their hands because the Pew study and others show that they're not likely to turn out and vote. But, I think that the reason that the white working class is moving away from Obama is far more economic, not in the sense of this unemployment, "I'm going to lose my job. There is a recession," not that at all. But, in the sense that they feel he doesn't believe in upward mobility. He doesn't believe in working overtime and getting what you want. He doesn't believe in the American dream. But, it's largely an economic narrative not about abortion, gays, guns, and that kind of stuff.
O'REILLY: I see. I disagree with you. I think that there is a heavy duty component with emotional stories like the mosque, all right? And I mean my mail reflects all of this. Yes, the economy is of great concern, but the president is perceived now. It's just -- look, every -- I'm a blue collar guy even though I'm wearing a green shirt tonight and I'm a rich guy, but I'm still that sensibility. You know that, Morris. You know me.
O'REILLY: All of my friends who are all blue collar, most of them blue collar say the same thing. "He doesn't understand me and he doesn't care about me. He doesn't understand what I do, why I do it, how I believe. He doesn't care. He doesn't get it." That's what they said.
MORRIS: But, Bill, bear in mind that in all the campaigns throughout the country, the republican candidates are pushing deficit and economics and debt and Obama care not mosques, social issues and that --
O'REILLY: That's true but Obama is on the ballot in this coming election. You know that. I mean you know --
MORRIS: Right. But, I want to make --
O'REILLY: It's about the president leadership --
MORRIS: I want to make two other --
O'REILLY: Go ahead.
MORRIS: I want to make two other points before you throw me out of here. One is among Hispanics that Pew survey you cited asked them how important are each of these issues and 58 percent said education was extremely important; 54 percent said jobs; 51 percent said health care; 35 percent said the deficit. Only 31 percent of Latinos said immigration was extremely important issue.
MORRIS: So, the Democrats have made a fundamental mistake in thinking they can get them back over immigration.
O'REILLY: Yes. I mean that's what that suing Arizona thing was all about.
MORRIS: The second thing I want to say is today is a very important day in the election cycle. It is the first day in 2010 that the Republicans have a lead in 10 seats occupied by Senate Democrats, enough to take control. Until now, they have been tied. They have been behind. They have been growing. Now, they have a lead. Some of the leads are huge. They're 43 points ahead in North Dakota, 18 points ahead in Arkansas and Indiana, 12 points ahead in Wisconsin. Seven in Pennsylvania. Five in Colorado. Five in West Virginia, which is extraordinary. Four in Illinois. Three in Nevada. Sharron Angle has now opened up --
O'REILLY: Yes, we recorded that last night --
MORRIS: A significant lead.
O'REILLY: Right. Now, significant 3 is not significant. What?
MORRIS: No, but it's been tied for straight weeks, Bill. And, Reid has always had a 1-point or 2-point lead, that's big. And, in the state of Washington for the first time, Dino Rossi, the Republican, is now ahead of Patty Murray.
MORRIS: Because he is doing a good job in answering her attacks. So, you know, it's like you get first place and then you win all the games and nobody else has to lose. You just have to win --
O'REILLY: Well, Morris, you are -- you are the guy --
MORRIS: That's where the Republicans are at now.
O'REILLY: I said last night, it pained me to admit it, but you might be right because you were the first one to say that the Senate would go to the republicans and we'll see in four weeks. Dick, as always, thank you.
MORRIS: And, by the way, Bill, every day now on my website, dickmorris.com, you can tune in and get an update on the election.
O'REILLY: As if no one knew that, Morris. As if you had to say that. Everybody knows that.
PINHEADS & PATRIOTS
And finally, "Pinheads and Patriots." When we last left ""P and P," there was this.
All right. The votes are in. Sixty-two percent said the flight attendant was a patriot for that routine; 38 percent believe she was a pinhead. And I think she's a patriot. I think the more fun we can have on the airlines which are usually torturing us, is a good thing.
Well, tonight, there is more dancing. This time from Prince Charles.
Well, not exactly Michael Jackson. Is the prince a pinhead or patriot for the umbrella exposition? Please cast your vote on BillOReilly.com. It does take a little guts to do that. But I want know what you think.