Turkey, Saudi Arabia present policy challenges for Trump

This is a rush transcript from "Special Report with Bret Baier," October 12, 2018. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIPS)

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: We have good news. Pastor Andrew Brunson is in the air from Turkey. He's going to be coming to the Oval Office, most likely on Saturday. He suffered greatly, but we're very appreciative to a lot of people, a lot of people. There was no deal made at all.

LAUREN BRUNSON, PASTOR ANDREW BRUNSON'S SISTER: It's been a rollercoaster ride. We have been finding our news out just like everyone else has. So we've been kind of glued to the news. It just seems really surreal right now. We're overjoyed, but it still doesn't quite seem real.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRET BAIER, ANCHOR: Great news. Pastor Brunson released from Turkey, on his way to the U.S. It's been a long time, two years, five days ago he was detained by Turkish police without charges. Two months later he was charged with membership in an armed terrorist organization for allegedly backing a coup attempt in Turkey, faced 35 years in prison. July he was taken from prison, placed under house arrest. And in August, the U.S. put some sanctions on a couple of Turkish officials. Today, again, he is leaving, time served already the sentence.

Releasing a statement, "We are grateful for the president's commitment and efforts in securing my release. My entire family thanks the president, the administration, and Congress for their unwavering support. This is the day our family has been praying for. I am delighted to be on my way home to the United States." Finally, a good news story on a Friday of a busy week.

Let's bring in our panel and start there: Matthew Continetti, editor in chief of the Washington Free Beacon; Karen Tumulty, opinion writer for the Washington Post, and Marc Thiessen, fellow at American Enterprise Institute.

Marc, good news story, and sounds like the president making clear no deal was done.

MARC THIESSEN, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE: Absolutely. And this is how he does it. It is a big news story. This is the 17th American by my count that President Trump has freed from foreign captivity. There was the four Americans in North Korea, American aid worker in Egypt, three UCLA basketball players, and a Texas businesswoman in China, a former CIA official in Portugal, American citizen held in Venezuela. He's been doing this fairly consistently. He's made it a priority of his foreign policy.

And he's done interest not by giving bribes, not by sending planeloads of cash with unmarked bills to foreign regimes because that creates an incentive to take Americans hostage. He's done it by exercising the coercive economic and diplomatic power of the United States of America. He put crushing sanctions on Turkey that sent the lira tumbling. And Turkey wanted out, and they finally found an opportunity to do it.

BAIER: Karen?

KAREN TUMULTY, THE WASHINGTON POST: And they had also made it -- the administration had also made it pretty clear that this was necessary for improving relations. The timing is interesting given that Turkey has also been turning over a lot of intelligence on the possible apparent murder of our colleague, Jamal Khashoggi, our colleague at The Washington Post. So Turkey could be playing sort of a double game here to sort of position itself in its rivalry with Saudi Arabia.

BAIER: Yes. Matthew?

MATTHEW CONTINETTI, THE WASHINGTON FREE BEACON: There are real economic costs to the captivity of Reverend Brunson. There's no question. And as Marc said, Trump's method is to leverage the economic weight of the United States against regimes that are doing no good. So this is a victory not only for the administration but also victory for religious freedom, because we can't forget why he was imprisoned in the first place, and that was his ministry. And so I think a lot of Christian around the world will appreciate that he's now been released.

BAIER: Karen, you mentioned the missing journalist, Khashoggi. The president talking about that today on the tarmac as well.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: We're going to find out what happened with respect to the terrible situation in Turkey having to do with Saudi Arabia and the reporter. I think a lot of records are overlooked. If look at Iran, if you look at so many other countries, take a look at Syria, you take a look at a lot of countries, a lot of countries' records have been overlooked. I will be calling at some point King Salman.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BAIER: So where does this go? There's reporting, multiple news organizations saying that there's U.S. intelligence showing that there's U.S. intelligence showing that there are intercepts or calls or recordings. The Turkish say that they have heard and seen evidence of this, although we have not been privy to that as far as we know. Is that correct?

TUMULTY: That's right. And the other thing, though, that we have gotten from the U.S. intelligence, The Washington Post reported, however, was that the crown prince had, in fact, okayed an earlier plan to lure Jamal Khashoggi to Saudi Arabia and essentially abduct him there. So there are a lot of signs, a lot of arrows pointing to the very top, top levels of the Saudi government.

BAIER: OK, let's just stipulate, this is heinous if it happened, and if they find out it happened, it's horrific. From people who look at regimes and how they deal with things around the world, is there any daylight in dealing with the regime that it turns out did this?

THIESSEN: It's very hard because this is both criminal, and it's a betrayal, a personal betrayal of President Donald Trump. President Trump has embraced MBS, the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman. It was his first country that he visited as president of the United States. He made deals with them. He's shifted our foreign policy in the Middle East away from courting Iran and trying to bring them around and towards supporting our allies like Saudi Arabia and Israel. And so he put a lot on the line. MBS, if he's behind this, betrayed President Trump and the United States.

BAIER: Matthew?

CONTINETTI: Which is why it would help to have evidence that the crown prince is behind it. We don't really have evidence yet. Even the plot that Karen described is far different from what the Turks are accusing the Saudis of doing, which is torturing, murdering, and then dismembering him in the consulate in Istanbul, not in Saudi Arabia.

I think a lot of people on Capitol Hill who are still looking for answers and evidence, as well as in the administration, we also have to remember that the Saudi-U.S. alliance carries great costs and has carried great costs for decades. But if that alliance were to break, there would be costs as well. And so as we evaluate the punishment that should be meted of the if the crime should be proven, we have to keep in mind that what the Middle East doesn't need is another failed state.

BAIER: Karen, last word?

TUMULTY: I do think, though, that it is incumbent on us to, on the United States to do what we can to get a clear answer. The Saudis are saying he left the consulate. If that is the case, there should be evidence of that.

BAIER: We'll follow it. It is an amazing story.

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