This is a rush transcript from "The Kelly File," October 5, 2016. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.
MEGYN KELLY, HOST: Breaking tonight, 34 days from the election and just four days from the next presidential debate. A life- threatening storm is now bearing down on the United States as residents up and down the East Coast scramble to get out of harm's way.
That's where we begin tonight's edition of "The Kelly File." Welcome everybody, I'm Megyn Kelly. Tonight, we have big news from the campaign trail and a big threat in the Atlantic. We will talk 2016 in a moment but we have to start with the massive hurricane that could now score a direct hit on the United States in less than 24 hours. Millions are bracing for the impact of this thing. Look at it. Hundreds of thousands are now evacuating their counties ahead of Hurricane Matthew. It is the first major hurricane threat for the United States in a decade.
The monster storm killed nearly a dozen people in the Caribbean already on its march towards Florida and the East Coast. Governors in four states already declaring an emergency. President Obama urging Americans to take this very seriously and Florida Governor Rick Scott warning of the possibility of quote, "massive destruction that we haven't seen in years." We have got every angle of this storm covered for you and will be updating you on its tract throughout the night and on its progress.
Meanwhile just four days remain before the second of three presidential debates. On the campaign watches say could provide a reset of sorts for Donald Trump. This showdown will be unlike any other we'll see with two moderators hosting.
CNN's Anderson Cooper and ABC's Martha Raddatz in a town hall format. Meaning half of the questions will actually come directly from the voters. The candidates are keeping very different schedules in the run up to Sunday night. Mrs. Clinton is off the campaign trail attending fund-raisers and focusing on her debate prep. Mr. Trump has been hitting the campaign trail hard in Nevada today. We hear he is going to ramp up his prep work later this week. Regardless both campaigns say they are ready to go.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KELLYANNE CONWAY, TRUMP CAMPAIGN MANAGER: The town hall format is really a sweet spot for him. Because he is the one out there with voters every single day. I'm not sure the town hall format is great for Hillary Clinton either. She seems much more comfortable behind the podium. We have seen her out there with people. That doesn't seem like her most comfortable arena.
HILLARY CLINTON, D-PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: I'm looking forward to our next debate next Sunday.
(APPLAUSE)
I thought the first one went pretty well.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KELLY: In moments we will talk strategy with Stuart Stevens, who was a campaign strategist for Mitt Romney. But we begin tonight with Jason Miller, Trump's campaign senior communications adviser. Great to see you, Jason. Thanks for being here.
JASON MILLER, TRUMP CAMPAIGN, SENIOR COMMUNICATIONS ADVISER: Good evening. Thanks for having me.
KELLY: She really -- listen, the polls say that she won that first debate but you tell me whether she would do better to be a little less glib and a little more likeable on the subject. I mean, self-deprecating is not really Trump's thing either. But you tell me whether she's going to win over voters on the fence by the, it went pretty well, thing.
MILLER: Well, I think the, why am I not 50 points ahead line, really gives you some insight into Secretary Clinton's thinking and just her attitude towards voters. And I think especially with the town hall format that we will see on Sunday night. This is really an opportunity for Mr. Trump to do well. I think this is the format that allows him to connect with people and I don't know if Secretary Clinton can memorize enough lines.
KELLY: But what about -- we saw Trump in the primary season in an Anderson Cooper town hall. And he kind of got in somebody's face. I mean, the guy asked him a tough question about why he said George W. Bush knew about 9/11 before it happened or intentionally lied to get us into Iraq. One of those two dies he thinks. And Trump was like, look, it's fine, I'm not getting your vote. I mean, has he been told it is not good to yell at the voters. Be nice to the people asking the questions, even if they are snarky question.
MILLER: People loving these town halls, he tells it like he sees it. He calls it like it is. It's not like he says, not a bunch of -- or things he has been memorizing. But I think he will do well on Sunday. I think we will actually doing the town hall tomorrow night in New Hampshire. Seven o'clock. So, that will be --
KELLY: Take a little practice?
MILLER: Mr. Trump does a whole lot of town halls and meets and talks with voters all the time. But one we do in advance and he will do debate prep tomorrow and Friday and getting ready.
KELLY: Are we going to we see a different Trump at this debate than we saw at the last one? Because, you know, some of the criticisms of him were punch back, right? Don't defend everything she lobs your way. Don't be on defense. But punch back. Punch at her and punch relentlessly actually as the night goes on.
MILLER: Well, the goal go into the first debate was to make sure that it was clear, who is the insider, who is the outsider. Who is the one who is going to fight to change the economy. Who is the one who is going to fight to make her country more safe and secure? So, we felt from our end that we're able to go and accomplish that. I think this time we will going to start getting a little bit more into some specifics. I think you will going to see really the consumer benefit of Trump presidency will do for the American people. And I think that's where things is going to start to separate. Because that's where Secretary Clinton has a tough time reconnecting with people.
KELLY: Does he get that she laid a trap for him with that Alicia Machado thing that he's -- right into and then he stayed in that trap for five days.
MILLER: Well, look, Mr. Trump is going to defend himself. And I think it's only right (INAUDIBLE) political attack at him that he can go and defend himself.
KELLY: But wait, it didn't help him. It didn't help. His ardent supporters, some of them were so disappointed that he stayed in that ugly place for five days when he had so much momentum behind him and they don't want to see him do that again.
MILLER: But what they absolutely love said that he did well for that entire debate and then he stood up and then he fought for himself and he didn't back down.
KELLY: Right. But we're talking about, you know, how they say, in like, drug addiction, the first step is admitting you have a problem. Right? The first step is admitting that that was a mistake. Don't walk into the trap. Don't stay in the trap. Don't enjoy the trap. Don't extend the trap by five days.
MILLER: I disagree with you. I saw the debate a bit differently. I thought Mr. Trump did fantastic. And there's a reason why we're seeing these crowds, we're seeing this energy, we're seeing this excitement. But let's look ahead to Sunday, what we think is going to come up.
KELLY: Yep.
MILLER: And that's the one where I reviewed a lot of game table of Secretary Clinton.
KELLY: Yep.
MILLER: She is always good on the first answer. She can come through. She will have memorized probably a couple of hundred lines. She will have those down. I mean, as you start getting to the second questions, third questions, that's where she gets tripped up. And that's where she has a tough time relating with people. She can't really connect. And I think that's -- because I think the Clintons are so separated from regular people.
I mean, they can't quite connect. I mean, how do you go from not been able to pay either of your mortgages when you leave the White House to being worth a couple hundred million dollars without ever doing so much as billing an hour of legal work or producing anything or winning Powerball or anything else. And so, they live in an alternate reality and I don't they get what it means to be in America.
KELLY: They gave a lot of speeches. A lot of speeches that paid very, very well.
MILLER: Would you paid them $500,000 for a speech?
KELLY: I do not give that kind of money away. And I think Bill Clinton lived a very different life. Very different life than I have.
MILLER: One of the thing though that I think is important about Sunday, just one of the things we're seeing with the election over all --
KELLY: Yes.
MILLER: -- is where the energy and the enthusiasm is in this race is clearly with Mr. Trump right now. We see with Secretary Clinton that there is just, you know, small crowds. Maybe a thousand. You know, if she's lucky at some of these --
KELLY: That's all true. But the cloud size does not determine what happens on Election Day. We saw that the last time around with Mitt Romney.
MILLER: Voter intensity. Voter intensity is there for Mr. Trump. It's why we see it in the polls. We feel pretty good about where we're at.
KELLY: Thanks for being here.
MILLER: Thank you, Megyn.
KELLY: Nice to see you.
MILLER: I appreciate it.
KELLY: Joining us now with more, Stuart Stevens, founding partner of Strategic Partners and Media. He served as a campaign strategist for Mitt Romney.
Let me pick on that last point though, it may be painful for you Stuart. Because I remember, we've seen those dwelling crowds for Romney, you know, especially in the last couple of weeks before the election. It was incredible. And people thought there's no way he is not going to win this. No way. And yet, as we now know, the crowd size was not predicted.
STUART STEVENS, STRATEGIC PARTNERS AND MEDIA: Well, you know, it is a big country. And if you have a crowd of say 60,000 a day, and you still need to get to 65 million, it is going to take you about five or six years to reach those people.
KELLY: Uh-hm.
STEVENS: I think it is nice to have voter intensity.
KELLY: And they do have it. They do have it behind Donald Trump.
STEVENS: I think Donald Trump has a smaller intense following. The question here is just, it is about addition now. Everything you do should be about addition at this stage of the campaign. What new voters is Donald Trump adding to his coalition. All those voters only get to vote once. So, a more enthusiastic voter has the same power at the ballot box. So, that's really I think going to be the challenge on Sunday night.
KELLY: So don't you expect him -- just to know that.
STEVENS: Donald Trump to go out and actively reach out for more voters.
KELLY: Don't we expect trump to know that? I mean, given what happened to him in the wake of the first debate, he will change a bit and be maybe a little softer. I mean, he will hit Hillary harder but he will be softer in dealing with the individual questioners at the town hall?
STEVENS: I don't know. It's a different format. It suites itself better to that. Personally, I think Donald Trump is still running against Donald Trump. And he should focus on telling people more about himself. He ought to ask people for a second look if he decided not to vote for me. I think really it is a referral on Donald Trump in that sense that he still has favorables under 40 and that just limits his growth.
KELLY: Uh-hm. What do you make, I'll ask the same question that I just asked about her with the -- I thought the debate went pretty well. I get that her supporters love that. They're like, yes, you go, girl. But these two candidates are fighting over this group in the middle that doesn't like either one of them. Right? These people who haven't decided, they don't like her and they don't like him. You tell me whether that sort of, yes, thing is going to go over well with these people.
STEVENS: Hillary Clinton has low favorables but he has higher favorables than Donald Trump. Plus, she has a much bigger, better campaign. They designed this campaign to place her in situations where she can do okay. They aren't asking her to go out there and win this race, carry this race on her back, like a sporting analogy. They believe that they have, an organization that can deliver a campaign message and that she has passed that threshold so people can imagine her as president of the United States. For a lot of voters, Donald Trump hasn't passed that threshold. Still a very high number of people who can't imagine Donald Trump being president. And I personally think that that's really what he should try to address on Sunday night.
KELLY: Uh-hm. And now they are both in their own version of a presidential protection program which you say they designed her situation so she is not in a place where she feels uncomfortable or is anything unexpected can come at her which is why she sat for half an with Mary J. Blige, the singer, which is why she did entertainment tonight this evening. Which is why we just found out that when she went on the Steve Harvey show, she have every single question given to her in writing in advance and then she feigns surprise when questions were asked.
And Donald Trump with all due respect, my friend at 10:00 will go on Hannity and pretty much only Hannity and will not venture out to the unsafe spaces these days which doesn't exactly expand the tent for either one of them there. That's my two cents. Stewart, I'll give you the last word.
STEVENS: I think that when you saw in the last debate Hillary Clinton was delivering messages that really resonate with certain audiences. Her comments about African-Americans and the legal system. I think the white voters like Hillary Clinton are not like Hillary Clinton. It just doesn't have the resonance it does with African-Americans. I think they have a plan, they know what their vote goes are, and they know how to put together these coalitions.
KELLY: Yes. And we will see. The electoral math is looking better and better for her. Stewart, always a pleasure.
Breaking tonight, new details from the national hurricane center on Matthew. The storm now has sustained wind of over 115 miles an hour. It is tracking straight toward the southeast coast of Florida. Moments ago we got word that the Ft. Lauderdale Airport is shutting down completely tomorrow morning. We will go to our weather center in moments for the latest predictions.
Plus, did the Clinton campaign just make a big political error when it comes to this storm? Yes, even Matthew will be politicized.
Chris Stirewalt and Dana Perino are next on what Mrs. Clinton's team just announced and why it could cause them problems in the key swing state of Florida?
And then, we're getting reports that ObamaCare is suddenly facing new and serious trouble from the exact problems that the critics predicted, including right here on this broadcast two years ago.
We will speak once again with Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel. A key architect of the health care overhaul. About what they told us then and what is happening now.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: You talk to somebody who said, I don't know, I was watching Fox News and they said this is horrible. See for yourself what the choices are, then make up your own mind.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KELLY: Fox extreme weather alert for you tonight as we track a deadly storm that could soon impact an estimated 15 million Americans. We're getting new pictures of the devastation from the category 4 hurricane, Matthew is its name, in Haiti. Where the U.N. has declared the worse humanitarian crisis since that 2010 earthquake that left more than 200,000 dead. Look at this. Look that. We just got word that the Fort Lauderdale Airport in Florida is shutting down at 10:30 tomorrow morning. Gas station and parts of the state are running out of fuel and grocery aisles are already being cleared out as residents deal with mandatory evacuation orders.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. RICK SCOTT, R-FLA.: Regardless if there is a direct hit or not, impacts will be devastating. I cannot emphasize enough that everyone in the state must prepare now for a direct hit.
OBAMA: If you get an evacuation order, just remember that you can always rebuild. You can always repair property? You cannot restore life if it is lost.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: For those of you that are wondering whether you should leave or not, I again will tell you, that if you do not leave, you are putting a law enforcement officer or national guardsman's life on the line when they have to go back and get you.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KELLY: Uh-hm. Meteorologist Rick Reichmuth is live in the Fox Weather Center for us tonight, Rick?
RICK REICHMUTH, FOX NEWS METEOROLOGIST: Always such a great point, when you stay, you are putting somebody else's life in danger if they have to come get you. So I'm happy to hear Governor Haley say that. Here is the storm right now. Spent the time over in Haiti and Cuba, not a lot of time, but it was enough to kind of disrupt it a little bit destruction. So it weakened down to 115 miles an hour. Still a major category three storm. Don't be fooled by that. Latest satellite imagery representation, right here, the latest images, all indications are that it is about to go through a strengthening cycle.
We generally see that during the overnight hours. That is why we will get back up to category four storm. We have hurricane watches in effect all across the Georgia coast all the way down throughout the keys. But the hurricane warnings from right up here at Daytona Beach down towards Miami and that's where we will going to be watching the brunt of this starting tomorrow afternoon. I also want to point out, it goes inland. So Orlando, you are under a hurricane warning. Not just a coastal event.
And take a look at what one of our model predictions of the wind field does. By tomorrow probably around noon, we've got tropical storm force winds around Miami. And then take a look at this, Megyn, during tomorrow night, right around this time, potentially major hurricane winds right on shore here and it tracks right along the coast, all night tomorrow night, all throughout the day on Friday, the entire Eastern Coast of Florida looking to be pummeled by potentially a major hurricane starting tomorrow night.
KELLY: We will make sure that we are live on the air and covering that for everyone there. Rick, thank you.
REICHMUTH: You bet.
KELLY: Well, it's political season. So you know that even before this storm makes land fall it is already impacting this presidential race. Team Clinton decided this was a good time to make a big advertising buy on the weather channel. In a series of major Florida markets, right? And some critics are questioning whether this move could actually end up angering some of the voters she is trying to reach.
Joining me now, the new co-host of Perino and Stirewalt. I'll tell you what, did I had it right, Chris?
CHRIS STIREWALT, FOX NEWS DIGITAL POLITICS EDITOR: Oh, it's so beautiful. It sounds so good to hear.
KELLY: I'll tell you what.
STIREWALT: I'll tell you what?
KELLY: Chris Stirewalt who is also our Fox News digital politics editor and Dana Perino, former White House press secretary under President George W. Bush and co-host of "THE FIVE." You have too many titles. You're going to have to choose which ones you want. I don't have the time.
DANA PERINO, CO-HOST, "THE FIVE": Well, that other show is temporary so that will go away.
KELLY: Okay. Well, let's leave just what that other show's title for now. I am going to start with you Dana because you are here live on this set. Ad buy on the weather change by Hillary. I understand the goal and running for president is to reach people.
PERINO: I think it depends on what the ads are. If it's really -- if there are ads that slash and burn against Donald Trump, I don't think that would be very welcome. But if there are ads that are uplifting, it might just have a positive impact. I also think that the impact of the storm is going to be so big that they might not have a lot of commercial breaks because the impact of the storm is, if what Rick is saying actually ends up happening, we could be in a really dire situation for millions of people, for a long period of time.
KELLY: How does that play politically, Stirewalt, because we saw with super storm Sandy, it did have an impact. And you know, you could argue it had an impact all the way to 2016 and cost Chris Christie a lot of Republican voters because he was hugging Barack Obama on the board walk but he denies the hug but they were exchanging little fuzzy animals that President Obama got him on the board walk.
(LAUGHTER)
KELLY: I keep saying to Governor Christie, because they were like, there was no hug. And I keep saying, don't make me show you the video of him winning you that little fuzzy bear. Okay. But anyway, how is that play, Chris?
STIREWALT: Well, President Obama played it well. He took good advantage of that. Not only that he demonstrates bipartisanship by getting Chris Christie to accept his care bear but he also was able to blame global warming. He even stayed on, brought his actual message points from the campaign into it. Meantime, Mitt Romney couldn't even get in the state. He couldn't get around. Christie told him to stay away which is probably right. Because what is Mitt Romney going to do other than stand around and have nice hair. He blows nicely --
KELLY: Even in the storm.
STIREWALT: The breeze is coming in. Right. He's blowing as the breeze is coming in. He won't be able to do anything. So, that's where running against an incumbent makes it harder because Obama could go there, he could push his message about global warming --
KELLY: But not the case here.
STIREWALT: But that is not the case here. We got nobody. We got people who are, who are a never was and a former. So what? And all they can do is stay away and hope that people from their parties, that the Republican governors of the states, and that president and his organization, don't screw up because if they do, it will be bad for them.
KELLY: You know, Dana, we also have a presidential debate this Sunday night, you know, within 24 hours of this storm hitting land fall.
PERINO: Yep. So you're going to have, this could be upwards of 15 million and multiples of that that are going to be focused on the storm. And pay little attention to the debate. Nobody pays attention as much as we do. But it is possible that night that you could end up with Trump, like a split screen with Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, and then the weather map. Or coverage.
KELLY: Yes.
PERINO: Because people are going to want to know what is happening to their communities.
KELLY: And what about, you know, early voting, right? Because this is also going to impact North Carolina and Florida and you tell me whether, you know, turnout for that is a factor or is this going to depress any of that or change any of that?
PERINO: Well, I have to say -- if I could defer to my co-host who I believe is working on a data dial --
KELLY: I'll tell you what, you may. Stirewalt --
(CROSSTALK)
See how well they work together?
PERINO: I don't know any answers, I just defer to him.
STIREWALT: Dana is sweating me on this -- like crazy. I'm going to come up with something, it's going to be good, God damn it. But the early voting is a huge factor. Both in North Carolina and in Florida. If the storm is disrupted to a great degree that would be harmful for Democrats who like early voting and like long voting period so that they can mobilize voters, or hard to get out voters. So Democrats want this to be over quickly and not massively disruptive so they can take advantage of everyday on the map.
KELLY: It's fascinating.
PERINO: But in Florida, you never know what's going to happen.
KELLY: Look at Dana, we're sorry for putting her head over the satellite.
(LAUGHTER)
PERINO: Well, I think it is probably good. Put it back. I like it.
KELLY: Dana's floating head above the storm. I don't know, that is what we're trying to say about Dana like --
PERINO: I'm having one of those weeks.
KELLY: Okay. I know, remember she was crying last night.
(CROSSTALK)
PERINO: Only through one eye.
(LAUGHTER)
KELLY: I got to go. Bye guys.
Also tonight, well, a series of new polls show Hillary Clinton gaining ground. One major survey consistently shows Donald Trump ahead. And those pollsters are here to explain what is going on.
Plus, ObamaCare now facing major new challenges. With report surfacing that the law may not survive.
Up next, our old friend Zeke Emanuel. The key ObamaCare architect and renowned doctor joins with us what went wrong and why? Stay tuned.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: While good affordable health care might seem like a fanged threat to the freedom of American people, on Fox News it turns out it is working pretty well in the real world.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KELLY: Fox's extreme weather alert for you now. The U.S. military is sending hundreds of U.S. troops to evacuate -- hurricane-battered Haiti, I am told tonight. As we are getting reports of a rising death toll in that country. At least 26 people dead. You're seeing the latest track of the storm heading straight for Florida and for the East Coast. Nearly two million people have been urged to evacuate from their areas and local reporters on the ground say a lot of people are planning to stay. Stay tuned for more updates throughout the evening.
Well, ObamaCare has suddenly exploded back into the headlines these days after mostly sitting on the bench as an issue in 2016. It started again when President Bill Clinton called the law crazy on Monday drawing attentions to some major challenges now facing the President's signature health care law. Fox News was among those questioning for years whether ObamaCare was viable long-term based on well-documented concerns from economists and some health insurance officials and time and time again some critics of the law, Fox News Channel included, were called out by the president himself. Watch.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: We knew going into the debate that it would be some subject to distortions. It was subject to some misleading information.
We're going to need everybody out there to make sure -- get the right information. Don't just read a blog or you know, some commentary. From some pundit. That has a political agenda. Don't let people confuse you. Don't let them run the okey-doke on you. Don't be bamboozled.
If you talk to somebody who said, well, I don't know, I was watching Fox News and they said it's horrible. See for yourself what the choices are then make up your own mind.
While good affordable health care might seem like a feigned threat to the freedom of the American people, on Fox News, it turns out it's working pretty well in the real world.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KELLY: Tonight, we have one of the key architects of Obamacare, Dr. Ezekiel Emmanuel who joins us tonight. I last spoke with him more than two years ago. We will show you some of that in a minute. But first we turn to Trace Gallagher for the latest live from our West Coast newsroom. Trace?
TRACE GALLAGHER, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Megyn, one of the nation's largest insurers, Aetna, pretty much summed it up by saying that "policy holders are turning out to be sicker and costlier than expected and unless you have a balanced risk pool, meaning more younger and healthier people, it's impossible to provide affordable high quality health care. So, after losing $433 million over the past two years, starting in 2017, Aetna will stop selling Obamacare in 11 of the 15 states it now serves.
United Healthcare, the nation's largest insurer says it lost $1 billion over the past two years and in 2017, it too will exit most healthcare exchanges. As a result, consumers in a third of the country will soon have only one or two insurance companies to pick from. And the lack of competition means big time rate increases for example in Tennessee, Blue Cross Blue Shield is raising rates 62 percent in 2017. In Kentucky, Golden Rule Insurance is boosting rates 47 percet. In Iowa, Wellmark is uping premiums 42 percent, and the list goes on.
The government is also hemorrhaging money. So, if you're not getting hit with higher premiums, your tax dollars are certainly getting tacked. Many Republicans say they are still trying to repeal Obamacare but now Democrats are also voicing concerns, the most famous, being the former president. Watch.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BILL CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT: So you've got this crazy system where all of a sudden 25 million more people have healthcare and then the people are out there busting it sometimes 60 hours a week, wind up with their premiums doubled and their coverage cut in half. It's the craziest thing in the world.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GALLAGHER: Others think the way to cure what Clinton called the crazy system is to add the public option, an insurance plan offered by the government. You know, kind of like the V.A. And remember in 2009 when President Obama was giving his healthcare speech to a joint session of Congress and when he said the Affordable Care Act would not cover illegal immigrants? South Carolina Congressman Joe Wilson shouted you lie. Well now, California is negotiating with the federal government to have Obamacare cover illegal immigrants. Megyn?
KELLY: Well our next guest is known as a key architect of Obamacare and we asked him about this kinds of problems when he visited this show back in the winter of 2013.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KELLY: Don't you agree the system is going to collapse unless we get those young people -- those young people to sign up and...
EZEKIEL EMMANUEL, CENTER FOR AMERICAN PROGRESS SENIOR FELLOW: No, I don't agree -- I don't agree with that. The president has given you a plan that will cover everyone. So, if your employer decides he can't cover you or won't cover you, you have a safety net where you can get insurance.
The exchange going to be a stable way to buy insurance without it going into a death spiral because we don't have enough people in it. That's the key question and the answer to that question is.
Going forward is going to be a stable place to buy insurance.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KELLY: Joining me now, vice provost for Global Initiatives and Medical Ethics and Health Policy Department chair at the University of Pennsylvania, Dr. Ezekiel Emmanuel. Doctor, great to see you again. Thank you for being here. So let's just start with that.
EMMANUEL: Nice to be here.
KELLY: Stable market. Obviously it is not with this mass exodus of insurance companies, the decrease in competition, the hike -- an enormous hikes in premiums in so many states and counties, were you wrong?
EMMANUEL: Megyn, your reporter did a very nice job of cherry picking only the most extreme. They don't raise premiums to cross the board. Some have gone up higher than others but...
KELLY: Fifty plus percent.
EMMANUEL: The premium hikes are because they came in, they did mis-calibrate the market. They were trying to get market share. And it is a correction and you know, it is a problem that we do need to address. There's no doubt it needs to be addressed. But it is not across the board and on average, we do not have higher than 15 percent increases in the premiums and it is going to be a one-time increase to reflect...
KELLY: But the on average business doesn't help the person...
EMMANUEL: Wait a second...
KELLY: Hold on, but the on average person doesn't help (ph) the person in Arizona County who's got a 51 percent hike in their premiums. The people in Tennessee who have a 62 percent hike in their premiums.
EMMANUEL: Again, Megyn, what you are identifying is one product. There are many other products to choose from in those places. So, you can choose...
KELLY: In many of these places they only have one insurer. One plan to choose from and one insurance company.
EMMANUEL: You can you cherry pick but it's not the only -- it's not the average and it's not going to affect the majority of people.
KELLY: But the average doesn't mean anything to the person who is affected by the high cost and by the single insurer.
EMMANUEL: The second thing is Republicans bear some of the responsibility for this. Remember, Marco Rubio eliminated some of the risk adjustment that actually buffered and helped the insurance companies in this situation. He took it out of the budget and that was a serious problem.
KELLY: OK. But that's about the blame. I'm just talking about problem. OK, so there's plenty of blame it go around but I'm talking about the situation...
EMMANUEL: No, no, it's not plenty of blame. It's Republican clamoring...
KELLY: You are the architect on the law, sir, OK. So, let's just start with you when I get Marco Rubio here, we'll talk to him. You're the architect. You said that it was going be stable and what we're hearing today from the chief executive of The National Association of Health Underwriters is in many states the individual market is in a shambles. Shambles.
EMMANUEL: Megyn, you going to let me finish?
KELLY: Go for it.
EMMANUEL: OK. One of the things we built into the law was various ways of providing risk corridors and risk adjustment so that insurers would be protected against getting too many sick people which is the heart of the problem. Marco Rubio in the Senate took that away and destabilized the market. When I told you two years ago it was going to be a stable market, those risk protections were in place. And the Republicans took it away. But I may tell you...
KELLY: Okay. I get it. So it's Marco Rubio and the Republicans. But let me ask you because the other day we talked about...
EMMANUEL: They bear a major responsibility. Are there things we can do, Megyn, let me just finish.
KELLY: We talked about the fact that there was a risk --
EMMANUEL: Are there things...
KELLY: We talked about the fact that there was a real risk that the young people would not sign up that they'd rather pay the penalty. And you said they would sign up. And we talked about -- and you said, look, the very poor people are going to be covered by Medicaid and the next group of people they will sign up. We have that exchange from second sound bite per my control room. Can you play it? Watch.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KELLY: What we're being told right now is that young people who you have said in your writings and you acknowledge are critical to the success of this plan, are not signing up. Don't you agree the system is going to collapse unless we get those young people...
EMMANUEL: No, I don't agree. I don't agree with that.
KELLY: ... those young people to sign up and start paying?
EMMANUEL: Let me explain something. First of all, we -- our plan to have people go on Medicaid, about half of the people who are supposed to be covered under 133 percent of the poverty line are supposed to get Medicaid. The people above 133 percent of the poverty are going to get (inaudible) in the exchange.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KELLY: OK, but the young people are not signing up. They are choosing instead to pay the penalty, which is a problem. And for those people who are just above that price point where they can get Medicaid, they are not signing up either. The subsidies are not big enough and what we're being told is that they've enrolled only 17 percent of those customers. Only 17 percent of those people who make about 35 grand to 47 grand, only 17 percent signed up.
So you still have all these people without insurance. They can't afford it and that's why you're not getting the young people in. You're getting the healthy people in. So my question to you, doctor is, aren't the concerns that we talked about years ago coming to fruition to the detriment of the law and to those who are supposed to have been helped by it.
EMMANUEL: Look, we have actually had millions of people -- 11 million people who have come into the exchange, do we need to make adjustments in the interim? After six years we need to see that things need to be changed. We suggested some very simple adjustments that will make sense. First of all, from the time, the penalty is going up so it's actually going to be more real to more people.
KELLY: You're going to force them to buy insurance.
EMMANUEL: Wait a second, let me finish.
KELLY: No, I'm just explaining what you mean by the penalty.
EMMANUEL: We have saved a tremendous amount of money actually contrary to what your person said, the federal government is actually been saving -- is projected save between 2014 and 2019 about $1.5 trillion on lower spending. We can deploy some of that money to increase the subsidies and to make them more generous.
We could make some adjustments and increase the penalty and take it more seriously for people. These are not major shocks to the system. These are minor adjustments to a system that -- to the Obamacare that will make it more viable.
KELLY: I mean, the major shock came back, you know, after 2010 after the law was enacted.
EMMANUEL: I would say the most important thing -- the most important thing is to put those risk corridors -- to put those risk corridors back in that Marco Rubio took out. That would actually stabilize things for the companies.
KELLY: You know, you say that 11 million people have signed up. You were just on this show a couple years ago saying 34 million people -- 34 million will get coverage. Now it's down to 11. Eleven.
EMMANUEL: No, no, no. Get coverage through both Medicaid expansion and the exchanges. Now what happened? We have only 20 million people...
KELLY: Eleven million, 8 will million people already had insurance and your number that you're throwing out there, they already had insurance that they liked. They got kicked off of those policies and forced to buy new ones.
EMMANUEL: Megyn, no, we did not get 8 million people kicked off. You're now saying an untruth.
KELLY: OK, all right.
EMMANUEL: We've got 20 million people who got coverage and many more millions -- up to 4 million more people would have gotten coverage if places like Texas and Florida and Georgia would have expanded Medicaid as we wanted in the system. Now, it wasn't the 32 we predicted. But it is 24 million and that's a lot better than the previous system we've had. Remember the previous system...
KELLY: And a lot of people were not insured and did get some coverage. I'll give you that one.
EMMANUEL: And that's why the American public voted to change it.
KELLY: Let's leave it on that happy note where we have some agreement. And listen, despite all these disagreements that we have, I love having you on. You're smart, you know your stuff and you're a stand-up guy.
EMMANUEL: But you keep interrupting me, Megyn, so I can't explain my point.
KELLY: What it is because you go on and on.
EMMANUEL: No, I was just starting.
KELLY: I know how to keep you interesting. Trust me, you're in good hands.
EMMANUEL: I just know how to start.
KELLY: But I got go. Great to see you. Breaking tonight, there are now watches and warnings as far north as North Carolina. And reports that a lot of folks on the ground in Florida are refusing to evacuate. This always happens. As Hurricane Matthew marches toward Florida. We'll update you next.
Plus, out of nine major national polls, just one, from the L.A. Times shows Trump beating Clinton in this election. L.A. Times Washington bureau chief David Lauter is here to explain why that is. Don't miss it.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KELLY: We're now just 34 days away from electing the next president of the United States. In a series of recent polls show Hillary Clinton gaining ground. But one major survey shows Donald Trump still on top. It comes from a USC Los Angeles Times daily tracking poll. It shows Mr. Trump with a four-point lead over Hillary Clinton.
Joining me now, David Lauter, Washington bureau chief at the L.A. Times and Tom Bevan, co-founder and publisher of RealClearPolitics.com, great to see you both. So David, in this poll you found 3,000 people and you just keep tracking samples within that same group. You don't do sort of the random calling that most pollsters do. Why?
DAVID LAUTER, LA TIMES: Well one of the big problems that polls have is that when you call the different sample every week or every other week or every month, you never really know whether the people that you're getting from one sample are comparable to the people you actually got before. Maybe one week one side is much more enthusiastic than the other. Maybe something is going really well in the news and they really want to talk.
So, you'll have a surge of people who are Democrats for example one week or Republicans another week. And you'll have a poll that bounces around and you never really know is it bouncing around because people are actually changing their minds or because you're just getting different people answering the phone?
KELLY: So in this group, in this group of 3,000, were they people who started off Dems or Republicans or undecided? Is that factored in?
LAUTER: Oh, sure. It's a balanced mix that's weighted to be representative of the population as a whole. So, you take this group that you've made representative of the population and you go back to them every week and you ask them the same questions in that way you can ensure that when there's a change in the poll, it's an actual person changing their mind rather than just to change and who answers the phone.
KELLY: Now, before I get to sound bite, I understand this is an experiment of sorts for you but how confident are you because your poll is of course an outlier.
LAUTER: Well, of course, you know, we don't have a crystal ball, right? So you never really know, but this group that is at USC that's doing the poll with us, they did the same technique four years ago, they produced very accurate poll. They were one of the only polls that got president Obama's re-election marching (ph) right.
So, we think they are doing a good job. They know what they're doing and you know, there's no guarantee that we're right and other people are wrong. But I think we got a pretty good shot at it.
KELLY: There's no guarantee in polling at all...
LAUTER: Now, that's right.
KELLY: But Tom, what do you make of it because RealClearPolitics, your awesome site has taken heat for including this poll in the average of polls because, you know, that people argue it's an obvious outlier whose methodology is untested except for in one other instance.
TOM BEVAN, REALCLEARPOLITICS EXECUTIVE EDITOR: Right. A David said, I mean, the people who are producing this poll did produce -- did do the 2012 election and came out with a very accurate result. And they actually had Obama -- they were on the high side of Obama and margin of victory in that election and that's what it turned out to be so, that's one thing.
The other thing is, look, they partnered with a major media organization, the L.A. Times. And the third thing I would say is that, you know look, it's our poll average has anywhere between 8 and 12 polls at any given time. Right now, we have nine polls in there and this is just one of the nine.
KELLY: So what do you make of it, Tom, as somebody who aggregates this polls, I mean, how reliable would you say it is? I mean, do you think these are the sort of -- this is the secret Donald Trump victory that nobody's seeing?
BEVAN: I wouldn't say that, but look, I'm not willing to just say it's, you know, completely off the board. I mean, just this one example, Megyn, when you have various polls, this one example. We had two polls come out in Ohio this week. One from Quinnipiac that showed Donald Trump up five point and one from Monmouth that showed Hillary Clinton up two points.
So, there's a seven-point gap right there. Now, it's a little more pronounced and again, the L.A. Times poll has been more favorable to Trump over a more consistent period of time. But again, you do have variance (ph) with the polls, and again, it's just one poll within a nine poll -- a basket of nine polls that we have in our average at the current time.
KELLY: Well yeah, you're hedging your bets but David's way out there and it would be fascinating if he can come back and do a victory lap if they get it right. Great to see you both.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Thanks.
KELLY: Up next, live to South Carolina as Matthew takes aim.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KELLY: Breaking tonight, unprecedented steps under way ahead of what may be a historic hurricane land fall on the United States. Some anxious drivers filling up their tanks emptying the gas station pumps, and for the first time ever, South Carolina's governor ordering interstate lanes reversed emptying coastal cities. Correspondent Jonathan Serrie live in Charleston, South Carolina for us tonight where residents are bracing for the storm. Jonathan?
JONATHAN SERRIE, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Megyn, all of the pumps here at this gas station are shut down. You can see they're surrounded by caution tape. Note on the door here announces that they'll be closed at least through Sunday because this is a low-lying area prone to flooding. One of the areas that is part of the evacuation notice declared earlier today by South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. State officials say there is enough fuel in the supply chain that people don't have to worry about finding gas to fill their cars at other stations.
Some of the larger stations have been busier than usual as residents line up to top off their tanks. And when we visited a local supermarket, we found lots of people loading their cars with extra food and water. The manager of a local hardware store told us he got a flood of customers almost immediately after Governor Haley ordered an evacuation of coastal areas in and around Charleston and Beaufort. And to speed up those evacuations, State Highway officials decided to reverse the eastbound lanes of Interstate 26.
In other words, all lanes of I-26 are heading westbound away from the coast. If you get in the reverse lanes, you need to make sure you have enough gas to get to Columbia because no exits are permitted along the 100- mile route. Evacuees looking for a hotel may have to drive a bit further going to perhaps Asheville or Charlotte, North Carolina because most of the rooms are taken up here in South Carolina. Megyn, back to you.
KELLY: Jonathan Serrie, thank you. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KELLY: Already getting a lot of reaction to our interview with Dr. Ezekiel Emmanuel which we'll post on our Facebook page. Check it out, facebook.com/thekellyfile. And what do you think of his plan to raise the penalties on the young people who don't sign up? Thanks for watching, everybody. I'm Megyn Kelly. This is "The Kelly File." See you tomorrow night.
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