This is a rush transcript from "Your World," October 16, 2018. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.
NEIL CAVUTO, HOST: All right, thank you, Shepard.
And indeed we are following two very big developments simultaneously right now, what went down between the Saudi king, the crown prince, our own secretary of state, and exactly, to your point, what went up with stocks and why they went up so much.
Welcome, everybody. We are on top of both. I'm Neil Cavuto.
And you are looking right now at the Saudi Arabian Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. Now, pressure is building on the Saudis, lots of unanswered questions about exactly what happened to missing journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
The Saudis are pledging an investigation after that meeting with the secretary of state. The secretary will be meeting with Turkish officials tomorrow.
Now, we're going to talk to two key members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, fair and balanced, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, Maryland Democratic Senator Ben Cardin.
But, before all of that, Blake Burman at the White House on these fast- changing developments.
BLAKE BURMAN, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hi there, Neil.
That's exactly right. The secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, will be in Turkey tomorrow. Today, he was in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, meeting with the Saudi Arabian King Salman, also the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman.
And after that, President Trump tweeted out that yet again Saudi Arabia's top leaders continue to say that they had no involvement whatsoever with the disappearance of the missing Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.
The president tweeting this out just a little while ago -- quote -- "Just spoke with the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, who totally denied any knowledge of what took place in their Turkish consulate. He was with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during the call and told me that he has already started and will rapidly expand a full and complete investigation into this matter. Answers will be forthcoming shortly."
Now, just before that tweet there, the president wrapped up an interview with Trish Regan, and the president said he will soon hear from the secretary of state.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: We're trying to find out what went on. And a lot will be determined. He hasn't gotten back to me. He is going to probably over the next couple of hours, sometime prior to your show.
TRISH REGAN, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: OK.
TRUMP: But he will be getting back to me and you will start hearing what is happening. Turkey is looking at it very strongly. We are all looking at it together. But Turkey and Saudi Arabia are looking at it very strongly. And it depends whether or not the king or the crown prince knew about, in my opinion, number one, what happened, but whether or not they knew about it. If they knew about it, that would be bad.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BURMAN: The Khashoggi family released a statement today saying they are traumatized and they want an independent international investigation.
By the way, when you look at the Saudi stock market and the rial, the currency there, it's taken a hit over the last week or so. Yesterday was the lowest the rial has been against the dollar dating back to 2016, and the Saudi stock market, the Tadawul, has been down about 3 percent over the last week, running just behind the S&P 500, down 2.7 percent.
And that's even with a gain today for the Saudi stock market of about 1.3 percent -- Neil.
CAVUTO: Yes, they are certainly feeling it.
Blake, thank you very much, Blake Burman.
With us now is Maryland Democratic Senator, a key member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Ben Cardin.
Senator, very good to have you.
SEN. BEN CARDIN (D), MARYLAND: Neil, it's good to be with you. Thanks.
CAVUTO: So, what should we do?
The Saudis have this big investment conference next week, as you know. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is still tentatively set to go. But a number of others are not from Ford and Uber and Credit Suisse and Viacom, J.P. Morgan Chase, virtually a who's who in the financial community who have bowed out.
Should the treasury secretary bow out?
CARDIN: I think, until we know more, yes. He shouldn't be participating.
The story in Saudi Arabia is changing. We first had a complete denial. Now they are saying perhaps it was an interrogation that went wrong. We know that very few things happen in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the royal family knowing about it.
So, we need to get all the facts. But it's becoming more clear that the Saudi family has some accountability here.
CAVUTO: That's a big family as you know, Senator, and a lot of the finger- pointing has been at the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman.
Now, his father, King Salman, has not indicated which way he would go or whether he would push aside his son in favor someone else. There are a lot of picks. But should that be done? It seems that senators like Lindsey Graham have come out on record as saying that that has got to be at a minimum.
CARDIN: Well, the crown prince clearly has control at this moment.
We know the king is old and he is ailing. The crown prince has been all over the globe holding the power of the Saudi kingdom. So, it is clear that he has to account for what happened.
We got to get a clear understanding. America's foreign policy is strong because it is embedded in the principles of human rights and good governance. And it is critically important that the United States be in the leadership and dealing with what happened in Turkey.
CAVUTO: You know, as you have indicated in the past when we have looked at relations with other countries, we can't pick and choose our friends. And it's a region of the world where we want to count at least those who have worked with us very well, because after them it comes down to the Israelis.
Is it your fear that this is going to sour our relations permanently?
CARDIN: I think it will affect our relationship. We have a strategic need for the Saudis. I think that will continue. It's mutual.
But I think it has to change as a result of this activity, assuming, again, the facts points to where it looks like it's going. There has got to be repercussions from that. If not, we will see other world leaders look at the United States and say, look, we can do whatever we want to, there is not going to be any consequences.
The United States is truly the world leader in promoting the human rights agenda, and we need to be very clear in our language and our actions as to what happened in Turkey not being acceptable.
CAVUTO: You know, many have looked at $110 billion defense deal we scored with the Saudis last year, Senator, and said, all right, just shelve that. The president has said ,be careful what you wish for. The Saudis can easily go to the Chinese or the Russians.
Is it worth canceling a deal of that magnitude over this incident?
CARDIN: I'm not exactly sure what the status is of that deal. So, we need to know that.
But we have relationships with the Saudis that deal with their military needs, with their economic needs, their energy issues. We have multiple issues that we can choose from. In addition, some of us have indicated that the imagine the Magnitsky-type sanctions, which are individual to the people responsible, should be considered.
CARDIN: And we have already sent a letter to the administration asking for that.
CAVUTO: Do you think that we have been snookered, and this is over a number of administrations, this one, the -- Barack Obama, President Bush before that, with the Saudis -- that they have a long history of being two- faced and that we can't trust them? Do you share that?
CARDIN: Well, they don't share our Western values.
There is no question about that. We understand that. We have to have friends around the world. We have a strategic need for the Saudis in regards to our war against terror. We understanding that.
But the Saudis need to understand that to do business with the United States, that we're going to demand that there be respect for international human rights.
And for reporters, I mean, they have been under constant attack. This is an issue that really demands the United States to stand strong in our language and in our actions.
CAVUTO: All right. Senator, thank you very much. Good talking to you, Senator Ben Cardin...
CARDIN: Thanks, Neil. Thank you.
CAVUTO: ... on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, a key player there.
Well, if Wall Street was worried about any of these developments here, what is that always say, they had a funny way of showing it. Take a look at what's happening on the corner of Wall and Broad, about a 550-point surge.
Now, remember, it was a week ago tomorrow that the big aggressive sell-off really took steam. It accelerated on Thursday. Over two days, we lost over 1,400 -- close to 1400 points and then the markets started clawing its way back, continuing that theme today buoyed by much-better-than-expected earnings out of corporate America and a sentiment building that maybe the sell-off was overdone.
Also had a very positive read on industrial production. For the fourth straight month, manufacturing activity was picking up steam ,and maybe not as much as Wall Street had thought. But that was also seen to be a benefit to the bond market because it didn't ignite inflation fears.
I could go on and on. But why don't I let my local brainiacs do that, including FOX Business Network's Deirdre Bolton, Danielle DiMartino Booth, and market watcher Art Hogan?
Art, what happened today? Why the big comeback?
ART HOGAN, MARKET STRATEGIST: Yes, it's interesting.
So a lot of things that we were really hyperventilating about last week calmed down this week. So, when we think about the yield on the 10-year, when that spiked from 3 to 3.75, that is sitting at 3.15 now. The volatility index, the VIX, was 10 handles higher last week than it is this week.
Price of a barrel of oil has come in four handles. And certainly when you think about the dollar index, that has come off from a 97 handle to a 94 handle. So, lot of the things were we were ultra-concerned about have calmed down a bit.
But I also think what's really happening is, we're earning seasonings and economic data continues to look good and several companies have reported really good earnings. And I think that we're coming into earnings season sitting on support vs. bumping up against resistance.
I think that's the turn that we saw today.
If you look at all of the numbers that were coming in from corporate America -- and we're still early on in this process, Danielle, I mean, they were off the charts. They might have quarter will end up being better than the 19 or 20 percent earnings surge that was factored in here.
Is that the wind at this market's back or are there some headwinds you're looking at?
DANIELLE DIMARTINO BOOTH, FORMER FEDERAL RESERVE ADVISER: Well, you know, I would still, being a former Fed insider, be a little bit concerned about what we might hear tomorrow out of minutes.
But, look, the day started off with news that we had more job openings than we have ever had before. It was a record number. I think that that put a bit of a hop in the market's step. And then we saw very strong earnings coming out of the financials.
Obviously, there has been a lot more trading activity. Volatility begets activity on Wall Street. And that is very good for earnings and that's exactly what we have seen pan out.
And, of course, we have seen some strength in the energy names as well. It doesn't hurt these names that oil prices have rebounded to the extent that they have. But, again, to Art's pointed, they have also come off their highs. That takes a little bit of pressure off the consumer.
So, everything that possibly could have gone right today definitely lined up and went right. And we just got blowout earnings from Netflix.
CAVUTO: We did, indeed. I want to go into that a little bit here.
Can we do a Fox News Alert, guy? I love when you do that, because I get -- it scares me when I hear it.
There you go. Netflix is out with earnings that handily beat the Street, to Danielle's point.
And, Deirdre, I will take this up with you, 89 cents a share, significantly bigger than the 68 percent expected. They added a lot of customers, too, about almost seven million. That is, as they say, crazy good.
DEIRDRE BOLTON, FOX BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: It is. It is crazy good.
And, I mean, just to start with, that earnings figure that you gave me, I mean, that is better than 140 percent -- and I'm doing quick math -- vs. the third quarter of last year. Cannot overstate what a win that earnings number is.
And then revenue, if you like it, exactly in line, exactly what Wall Street was looking for. But the story that most investors care about is exactly what you just talked about, Neil, in the number of subscribers added. Right? This was the big question mark. OK, sure, you know, the skeptics were saying we know that Netflix can continue to add subscribers, but just how many? Is it going to peter out?
If this is the answer, that's why you are seeing the stock move up 13 percent after-hours. So, you said it, Neil, close to seven million new subscribers. As far as what the analysts, even the most optimistic analysts out there, were looking for slightly more than five million. I mean, Netflix had given five million as guidance.
BOLTON: A lot of analysts were saying, OK, 5.1, 5.2, but close to seven.
And then, even more importantly, Netflix is talking about the fourth quarter, saying they are going to have yet another large add of new subscribers. And I think this does have to silence the critics, at least for the next 24 hours -- who knows what comes next -- about...
CAVUTO: Who knows what comes up?
CAVUTO: Deirdre, you have got a little -- a lot of that.
And, Art, I'm wondering, too. Job openings hit a record, 7.1, almost 7.14 million in August. And that is the backdrop for this as well.
Now, I'm wondering how the Federal Reserve, something I will raise with Danielle as well, sort of digests that, because that is boffo, but it also means interest rates have to go uppo, right?
HOGAN: Right. That's really true, Neil.
And I think that's consistent with what we heard from the Fed so far. They're pretty consistent along this path, agnostic to anything they hear about what is going on in Italy, and certainly not moved by any financial market volatility.
They are on a clear and steady path, at least for December. Remember what's going to be important, Neil, I think next year. And Danielle can speak to this as well. Every meeting is live. They're having a press conference after every meeting this year.
I think that changes the dynamic of the pace and cadence of rate increases in 2019. But I think, for 2018, if all things remain equal, I think they are going to raise again in December.
CAVUTO: All right, so, Danielle, you are looking at all of this.
And the president in his interview with our Trish Regan on the Federal Reserve was critical again that they kind of overdo it, but that he has been consistently saying that, that they can sort of bash a party mid- party.
He's not the first president to think that. He is the first president to publicly state it again and again. Is he right?
DIMARTINO BOOTH: You know, yes. Nixon was obviously a lot more quiet about how he went about criticizing the Fed.
Should he be as vocal as he is? I have to say no. It is designed to be an apolitical institution. It is their duty to try and keep ahold of inflation, and not let that inflation genie get out of bottle.
When you see record job openings like we saw this morning, that's going to eventually translate into employers having to hire employees away from their competitors, and that can only mean one thing. That means, I'm going to give you a bigger paycheck, so that you come over to my greener pastures.
It's Powell's duty. He is duty-bound to follow inflation. And I think that's exactly what he is going to do. And I appreciate the president having an opinion on many things, but I wish that he had a quieter opinion when it came to the Fed.
CAVUTO: All right. Yes, that's a very politically correct way to frame that.
CAVUTO: All right, guys, I want to thank you all very, very much.
Now, we talked to a prominent Democratic committee member of the Foreign Relations Committee, his thoughts on what's going on in Saudi Arabia.
Fair and balanced, Rand Paul, the Republican who is also on that committee, his thoughts on that and some of the president's musings today and a host of other things.
Stay with us. You are watching "Your World."
CAVUTO: Well, he worked there, and now the folks who worked with him want to know, what the heck happened?
The Washington Post is now joining Jamal Khashoggi's family, calling for independent international investigation in the wake of the journalist's disappearance and presumed killing in Turkey.
Rich Edson live at the State Department on the latest -- Rich.
RICH EDSON, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Neil, President Trump says he has gotten another denial from the Saudi royal family, as his secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, is in Riyadh meeting with senior officials there, including the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, along with King Salman, the Saudi foreign minister, and other senior members.
The secretary was dispatched by the president Sunday night. He called him -- 24 hours, or less than 24 hours later, he was on a plane to Riyadh. All of this as senior members of Congress say they just don't believe the Saudi government's explanations. Democrats and Republicans are calling to cancel arms sales with Saudi Arabia and sanction those found responsible.
The administration has warned of consequences if it is determined the Saudi government is responsible for the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi, though has given no specifics on what it would do. The president has also rejected calls to cancel arms sales to Saudi Arabia.
Khashoggi wrote a column for The Washington Post. The paper's publisher and CEO has just released a statement, saying -- quote -- "The Saudi government can no longer remain silent. And it is essential that our government and others push harder for the truth. Until we have a full account and full accountability, it cannot be business as usual with the Saudi government."
The State Department has also announced that Secretary Pompeo will travel to Ankara, Turkey, tomorrow to meet with the foreign minister of Turkey after he leaves Saudi Arabia -- Neil.
CAVUTO: All right, Rich, thank you very, very much.
And, by the way, when we are talking about Saudi Arabia, defense issues all came back today. Remember, there was a concern we cancel all contracts, then defense stocks would get beaten down. That didn't happen today. Certainly continuing a surge, as was across the Dow Jones industrials, S&P 500.
We told you a little bit about Netflix with those boffo earnings coming in far better than thought, adding close to seven million subscribers. Well, stock is getting appropriately run up in after-hours trading, up 14 percent. That is in a matter of minutes.
I believe it was up, guys, what, 4 percent on the day anyway. So, add another 14 percent on that, and Big Blue not looking so big black and blue. IBM also out with numbers that beat the Street, earning about $3.42 a share. The market had been expecting $3.40.
I emphasize these numbers to illustrate the point this is the backdrop, the fundamentals that you hear a lot of bulls allude to, that no matter the gyrations you are seeing from abroad, this is at our core the wind at everyone's back, or so they hope. So far, so good.
More after this.
CAVUTO: It's race that has captured the nation's attention, because it's in Texas, reliably red, but maybe looking maybe not so red.
Five hours from now, a debate in that Senate race featuring the incumbent Republican, Ted Cruz, his Democratic challenger, Beto O'Rourke. They square off.
O'Rourke is a setting a record, by the way, with fund-raising. Many Democrats are outraising competitors with just three weeks to go. And that's surprising a lot of folks, particularly when it goes against Republican incumbents.
Democratic strategist Robert Patillo is here, conservative commentator Madison Gesiotto, and The Washington Examiner's Phil Wegmann.
Madison, to you first.
These are striking numbers in race after race, not across in every one, but particularly in Texas, where a lot of outside money has come in, thinking that O'Rourke has a chance at this. And he just might.
The money is off -- off the wall. What do you make it?
MADISON GESIOTTO, CONSERVATIVE COMMENTATOR: Yes, they can pour the money wherever they want, but at the end of the day, fund-raising is not necessarily indicative of Election Day results.
You can have all the money in the world. You can raise all the money in the world. But if you don't have the votes, you will not win. When it comes to November 6, money will be one of many factors, not the only or the deciding factor.
And the only thing we really need to do to look back at is 2016. Look back at 2016. Hillary Clinton in total money raised brought in over $1.4 billion. Donald Trump didn't even come in at $1 billion. He came in under $1 billion. And he won that election.
And that's just one example of something that we could see happen on November 6.
CAVUTO: Phil, what do you make of this phenomenon? That might be the case. And it might not pay for squat, but it is paying for something right now, right?
PHILIP WEGMANN, THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER: Absolutely.
Like, money is not the only rubric in politics right now, but it's an important one. And the fact of the matter is that, if you are a Republican, in a lot of these races, it's going to be very difficult for you to win, when you were being outspent, because you're going to have to match the message of your opponent.
This has got to keep guys like Representative Dave Brat in Central Virginia and a lot of other House members who are trying to keep their seats very worried, because they're being outspent sometimes 3-1.
Money isn't everything, but it's not a good indication that Republicans are going to have a good day on Election Day.
CAVUTO: All right, the fact, Robert, that Democrats in particular are pouring so much into this Texas race, when that -- once it seemed a given for the Republican. Now, the polls are all over the map.
I guess the RealClearPolitics average has them anywhere from five to seven points. But what do you think of the money that's just pouring into this just that race?
ROBERT PATILLO, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, I think it's important that the money is a measure of the groundswell support for many of these candidates.
You have a Democratic base which has been energized by the presidency of President Trump and also by many of the actions stomping down on what they believe is their free expression and their free speech.
So, I think the money coming in just from what they like to say big-money outside corporations. These are regular people making donations to campaign and candidates all over the country they think support their values. And I think it's a good sign for the Democratic Party.
CAVUTO: Madison, to your point, it doesn't necessarily spell the end result, but it does show a lot of passion going forward and Democrats in general targeting of races.
If there is too much targeting in Texas and ends up just being a wasted effort, are there other races that pique your interest?
GESIOTTO: Well, I think one of the other things we need to remember here is they can pour that money in, but at the same time it all comes down to, what do they do with that money?
Once the campaigns have a lot of money, some of them won't use it usefully. And when it came to President Trump's campaign in 2016, he was outspent 2- 1, but we were very lean and we were very smart about how that money was spent. It was very targeted. And so I think there are a lot of races.
CAVUTO: No, no, you are right about that.
But, Phil, the Democrats do seem to be targeting these sort of swing districts? I'm now actually getting into the congressional battles as far as the House, and those that they feel they have the best chance of flipping.
WEGMANN: That's right.
And I think, to Madison's point, there is going to be a question come the day after Election Day when Democrats are going to look in the mirror, and if Beto O'Rourke doesn't win in Texas, they are going to say, wow, he was so cool and he was a lot of fun to watch, but did we really need to waste those tens of millions of dollars there?
But if you do look elsewhere, though, if you do look at some of these races that are incredibly tight, the ones that are going to determine whether or not Democrats retake control of the House, what we see is, yes, there is enthusiasm. And, yes, there is money, because, right now, Republicans, while they have been bringing in significant fund-raising totals on their own, Republicans aren't going to be able to match the glut of negative advertising that we are going to hear on radio and television going in to Election Day.
So, it's definitely reason to be concerned if you are a Republican strategist, because, again, you can't win if you are getting outspent. I know that President Trump did it in 2016. But he changed politics completely and it's a different ball game now.
CAVUTO: You never know.
But, Madison, I interrupted your point there, but it's all about momentum, too, right?
And I think the Republicans have great momentum. I have been going across the country. People are really excited. And one of the things I think that they are really disappointed in when it comes to Democrats, if there were voters who were on the fence, is the way they handled the Kavanaugh nomination process and the way that they have been handling their own party for the past two years.
They don't feel there is strong leadership in the Democratic Party and they don't feel that the Democrats have come forward with a message saying what they can do for the people. All they hear is, we hate Trump, we hate Trump, we hate Republicans. And they are sick of that.
They want to know what these candidates going to do for them. How are they going to positively impact their life? And I think we are going to have a red wave because of that.
CAVUTO: All right, Robert, if the market nastiness of late sort of anticipates as a factor, I don't know if it ever would have been one way or the other, does that hurt Democrats? How do you look at it?
PATILLO: Well, I think it hurts both parties and the political system in general.
That's not what motivates young people to come out and vote and get people involved in the system. It builds cynicism. It builds belief among the populace that there is no point in getting out the vote because have you negative people on both sides of the aisle.
Now, on the point of if some of these swing candidates don't win, what you see is, with these millions of dollars elections being poured into these elections, you're getting millions of young people voted on -- or registered and on voter rolls.
You're getting people involved in the political process. You're going people educated. So, even if it doesn't pay off in 2018, it pays dividends in 2020.
CAVUTO: All right, guys, I want thank you all very, very much. Much appreciated.
GESIOTTO: Thanks, Neil.
CAVUTO: By now, you have probably heard the back and forth on Elizabeth Warren testing her DNA to say that, yes, she does have some Native American blood in her.
That got the president to respond to that and maybe set up what some are saying is a preview of 2020? My gosh, we haven't even done the 2018 thing -- after this.
CAVUTO: All right, well, Lindsey Graham says it's time to quit booping around with the Saudis. Either the crown prince has sanctions and he's looking at worse, or we have to change the way we go about foreign policy in that neck of the woods.
Rand Paul reacts here and only here.
CAVUTO: All right, they are at it and it could be a preview of coming attractions.
The president and Democratic Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren going tit-for-tat on Twitter over Warren's claims she has Native American blood in her after all.
Here with me to discuss the fallout from this, not the DNA test, but maybe for 2020, RealClearPolitics associate editor and overall smarty-pants A.B. Stoddard.
A.B., always good to have you.
What do you make of this back and forth. Some likened it to an early look at 2020. What do you think?
A.B. STODDARD, REALCLEARPOLITICS: Well, it's not going to surprise you, Neil, that I don't like what the president said, managing to insult both the Cherokee Nation and the senator at the same time by saying even they won't have her. But we're not surprised by that.
I do think that she just stepped on this and it blew up in her face. Her timing couldn't have been worse. The morning after Democrats get up and have to deal with questions about Hillary Clinton's bone-headed, tone-deaf, defiant remarks in an interview on Sunday saying that her president as -- her husband as president didn't abuse power having an affair with a 22- year-old intern, Elizabeth Warren does this massive rollout three weeks before the midterm elections, when Democrats do not want to focus on either of them and they want to focus on winning the House back and trying to stay alive in Senate races.
The whole thing she is trying to do to convince the base that she is going to take on President Trump and fight with him, you know, she can be just as nasty as him, absolutely could have waited for November 7. And I think that you saw some reaction from Democrats both publicly and...
CAVUTO: Oh, yes. The Democrats themselves thought it was.
STODDARD: They didn't appreciate that.
CAVUTO: They immediately questioned whether they have more Native American blood in them than her.
And I'm just wondering about the timing of it. One argument had it that she wanted to get this out of the way before the midterms. Right after the midterms, she is off and running.
But how does she stack up with all the other -- she's obviously identified with the hard left. Very popular figure in the hard left. But so is Bernie Sanders. A more moderating influence might be a Joe Biden. But this is going to be a crowded field one way or another. Huh?
STODDARD: Oh, Neil, it's more than 25 people.
And if they didn't learn their lesson from the 2016 Republican primary, you know, I understand that they got behind a juggernaut in 2016 and they edged out Bernie and they just stuck by Hillary and they paid the price for that. So, they are trying to let 1,000 flowers bloom.
But they have a huge kind of meltdown coming in the party about whether or not they are a center-left party or super free lunch socialist party on the left. And they haven't had that discussion.
She is trying to prove that she can sort of build a national infrastructure and get out in front of everybody and sort of intimidate the candidates who are further back in the field.
CAVUTO: Right. Right.
STODDARD: But I don't think that she or Bernie Sanders at their age and their association with the far left and sort of bank-hating, as I said, socialism is really going to the necessarily be the path the Democrats take. It might be.
But she is still going to have an uphill challenge from people who are younger and who are more vital, energized voices in the party. And like I said, I think she is trying to do what Hillary did, which is to come in early and say, I'm the big foot.
CAVUTO: The president, obviously, the remarks he made about her and Stormy Daniels and horseface remark earlier, he is not exactly scoring brownie points with women.
But I'm wondering whether there is a strategy here to say that he is going to divide them, that women are going to be divided and their interests are such among all other candidates that they are not necessarily drawn to Elizabeth Warren, and post-Kavanaugh, they might not be a lock for whoever the Democratic candidate is or even in the midterms.
How does that all sort out?
STODDARD: Well, I do think that President Trump still has his coalition behind him. The non-college white male is firmly behind him, as ever. The non-college white female, there has been some slippage, if you look at focus groups and polling. They might stay home.
They are probably not going to vote Democrat. Obviously, he has largely lost the white-college educated female, and those are the voters that the Democrats are hoping to turn out, former Republicans and independents or Dem leaners. They hope to turn them out and take the House back with that more energized voter, because, Neil, you know that the Democrats don't have a midterm coalition.
STODDARD: African-Americans don't turn out. Younger voters turn out. So, they are counting on white college-educated anti-Trump energy from women.
And I think that Trump has pretty much admitted he has largely given up on them for 2020. He is going to battle it out with a divide strategy just, you know, finding a candidate who is the nominee and then attacking them for their weaknesses. It doesn't matter if they are male or female.
But I don't see him trying to work his way back to that white college- educated female voter in any way with the way he is talking on Twitter today.
CAVUTO: Yes, but he did OK with women in general in the aggregate in 2016, right?
STODDARD: Yes, but he didn't -- he won white women. He didn't win women.
CAVUTO: Fair enough.
STODDARD: And that's the same thing as his eight steel plants that he always says are opening. It's not true. He just likes to repeat it.
CAVUTO: OK. I will put you down as a maybe on that.
CAVUTO: A.B. Stoddard, it's always good seeing you. Thank you very, very much.
STODDARD: Thanks, Neil.
CAVUTO: Well, who is going to show up at this big Saudi investment confab? They call it Davos in the desert, right now, a lot of no-shows. What's going on?
Rand Paul coming up.
CAVUTO: Well, it's the Saudis' parity, and the world will send their regrets if it has to, because that's exactly what going on right now.
The Saudi summit of financiers from around the globe, the best and brightest, increasingly, they're bowing out in the light of the death of this reporter or the presumed disappearance and death of this reporter of The Washington Post.
And that list keeps growing and growing.
Kristina Partsinevelos is on top of it all -- Kristina.
KRISTINA PARTSINEVELOS, FOX NEWS BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Yes.
It's pegged the Davos in the dessert. And it was supposed to show how Saudi Arabia is breaking its dependence on oil and modernizing the kingdom. But now you have a massive CEO exodus, many people pulling out of this conference that is scheduled for October 23.
The ones that you are seeing on your screen right now, you have got J.P. Morgan Chase -- that's the CEO, Jamie Dimon -- the Ford executive, Uber CEO, Blackstone CEO, BlackRock, HSBC.
And the list continues. This only the faces that could fit on this screen right now. There are many more that have pulled out of this event. There are some big names that are still attending.
You have the IMF, Christine Lagarde, who is going, and of course the U.S. treasury secretary, Steve Mnuchin, who did say that the relations with Saudi Arabia are good, and that they are a good partner to the United States.
However, you had Senator, Republican of Arizona, Jeff Flake commenting on this, and he tweeted out -- and I quote -- "Secretary Mnuchin shouldn't be going to Riyadh."
So, many people weighing in on whether people should be attending or not. The Saudis today, according to The Financial Times, have retaliated against one company that has decided not to go. And that is company operated by Richard Branson.
Richard Branson runs the Hyperloop company. This is Virgin Hyperloop One. They have said -- the Saudi Arabians have said that they are pulling the deal right now. It's on hold. They were originally going to invest about $1 billion into research in Hyperloop. They have now said that they are pulling out of that deal at the moment. It's on hold.
So this could potentially be a bigger picture of more retaliation from Saudi Arabia because so many companies have pulled out, so many media companies have pulled out. This can effect the defense industry, the energy industry.
Oh, and speaking about defense, just last year alone, the president's son- in-law, Jared Kushner, secured a very big defense deal worth $110 billion. That could be at stake should the United States impose sanctions on Saudi Arabia.
And last but not, you have oil too that could be affected. Some analysts were saying that oil could jump to well over $100 U.S. a barrel. All of this though, is the what-if, worst-case scenario -- Neil.
CAVUTO: All right, Kristina, thank you very, very much.
Meanwhile, the president says that the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, has totally denied knowing anything that took place in that Turkish consulate regarding the journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Who are you going to believe? And are we hooking up with the wrong guy?
CAVUTO: All right, he has been busy.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo meeting with the Saudi Arabia crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, today regarding the disappearance of that Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
This is the same guy who has a history of doing things that might get people scared, including those he imprisoned in a hotel lobby. Some were family members as he was consolidating power.
So, the question again, are we hooking up with the wrong guy? And is it time to see if we can find an alternative to that guy, as if we have a choice?
Retired four-star general, Fox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane.
General, good to have you.
We can't pick and choose our friends, nor our enemies. But already a number are saying in Congress we can't let this guy get away with this, assuming is he behind The Washington Post journalist's disappearance and death.
JACK KEANE, FOX NEWS SENIOR STRATEGIC ANALYST: Yes, so, I certainly understand those feelings, the sense of moral outrage and profound disappointment that our -- members of our government feel, particularly after President Bush revitalized the relationship with the Sunni Arabs, particularly the strategic anchor there, the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, to be sure, and largely to counter the very aggressive moves that the Iranians have made these last years and the successes that they have had, and also to keep a lid on, as much as we can, radical Islamic terrorism, where the Middle East is the breeding ground.
And, you know, Neil, half of the global economy comes through the Middle East in terms of oil. So there is no doubt about our national interests here.
So, what do we do when we have a friend like this that appears to have misbehaved rather dramatically? Do we walk away and get a divorce as a result of that? With the nation's self- and our strategic interests, I don't believe so.
But I -- one is I think we must wait for the full accounting of what actually took place. I don't like the idea that the Saudis are just going to go out and do an investigation themselves.
I think we should have insisted that we want to participate in that. The Turks know an awful lot that they're not talking about. And they sort of clammed up a little bit in the last couple days.
CAVUTO: Yes, but they were the ones -- I believe the Turks, General, were the ones -- and you just can't trust one source. And that's a little unsettling too, because the Turks are the ones who said that they investigated and found blood in the embassy, what have you.
CAVUTO: But they have a vested interest in sort of stirring the pot here as well.
KEANE: They do.
But I would bring them in. I would bring them in and let them be a part of it.
CAVUTO: I guess what I'm asking, if he were to go, if he were to go, what would happen?
KEANE: If -- Mohammed bin Salman?
KEANE: Well, that would be up to one person and one person only, if that's going to happen. That would be the king, if that's going to take place.
CAVUTO: That would be the king.
Now, he has other children, obviously, there. If you talk about just the royal family itself, it spreads far and wide.
And I'm just wondering, do you think that if the prince were indeed behind this -- and, to your point, we don't know for sure -- that he flaunts it in our face, and that that is a sign that he feels he has nothing to lose?
KEANE: Well, I don't think that is happening.
But I can understand why people can draw that impression. I think we wait and we get this accounting that's going to take place. I do think this is a setback for the relationship.
And I do think we have an adult over there in Pompeo. And I believe he is already starting to set some conditions for what the future relationship will be like. There will have to be some changes made as we go forward.
We're not going to tolerate this kind of behavior. We want an accounting. We want transparency. We are not going to walk away from our values.
CAVUTO: All right, General, thank you very, very much.
No doubt Rand Paul was hearing some of that. I wonder what he makes of that. He is next.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM, R-S.C.: What I would do? I know what I'm going to do. I'm going to sanction the hell out of Saudi Arabia.
You know, we deal with bad people all the time. But this is in our face. I feel personally offended. They have nothing but contempt for us.
Why would you put a guy like me and the president in this box after all the president has done? This guy has got to go. Saudi Arabia, if you are listening, there are a lot of good people you can choose, but MBS has tainted your country and tainted himself.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CAVUTO: All right, to Senate Foreign Relations Committee member Rand Paul on that.
Senator, what your colleague was saying was the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, has to go.
SEN. RAND PAUL, R-KY.: Well, I'm glad to hear that he is coming around to taking a tougher line on Saudi Arabia.
For over a year now, I have been trying to get Congress (AUDIO GAP) sending more arms to Saudi Arabia. And so far, Lindsey has been on the other side of that.
It's important to remember that Saudi Arabia is the largest state sponsor of radical Islam. They fund tens of thousands of madrasas around the world, Pakistan, India, Indonesia, Philippines, all teaching hatred of America.
They have been doing this for decades. They are not our friends. (AUDIO GAP) them, and then (AUDIO GAP) doing what they're doing in Yemen. It's a catastrophe, a humanitarian disaster.
So, this latest episode with killing the journalist is just proof, you know, that we need not to be arming them.
CAVUTO: Well, you wonder, then, if we take apart the deal that we scored with the Saudis last year, $110 billion worth, the president was arguing they will just go to the Chinese, they will just go to the Russians, whether it's this crown prince involved...
CAVUTO: ... or not. What do you think?
PAUL: Actually, we have extraordinary leverage over them.
It's been reported that their air force can't go a couple months without spare parts. Their air force is entirely U.S. planes. They are dependent on us for parts, mechanics. They are entirely dependent on us. They can't go months without our help.
So, we have the entire (AUDIO GAP) leverage (AUDIO GAP). We tell them absolutely we are not going to do business with a government that chops up journalists, puts them in little bags, and then escorts them out of an embarrass and dumps them somewhere.
This is not (AUDIO GAP) behavior. (AUDIO GAP) What they're doing around the world (AUDIO GAP) America is not civilized.
We have been turning a blind eye to Saudi Arabia for decades. They are the worst actor out there promoting terrorism.
CAVUTO: So, it sounds to me like -- and we have a very bad connection with you, Senator. I hope I don't have to hang up on you here.
But that the crown prince isn't alone in prominence. It's the royal family itself. It's the pattern of behavior over the years that upsets you. Right? So he could go, but you might have someone else who is just as inhospitable, right?
PAUL: In Pakistan, they fund over 20,000 madrasas that teach hatred of America and hatred of Western ways and hatred of Christianity.
They have polluted Indonesia, which used to have a much more mild, main (AUDIO GAP) Islam. They are polluting the Philippines with Wahhabism. So, yes, the Saudis are bad actors.
But here's the thing is, we don't need to just sanction 15 rogue actors that they hired to send over here, 16 thugs are 15 thugs. We need to not sell arms to the regime because the regime is a bad actor worldwide.
CAVUTO: Senator, I would be remiss if I didn't mention there is another development today, where a federal judge threw out the Stormy Daniels lawsuit vs. the president.
He went out a tweet after getting news of that: "Great. Now I can go after horseface," referring to Stormy Daniels, "and her third-rate lawyer in the great state of Texas. She will confirm the letter she signed. She knows nothing about me. A total con."
What did you think of that?
PAUL: You know, I'm agnostic. I spend all my time trying to get us out of the war in Afghanistan, get out of the war in Yemen, prevent us from bankrupting the country. I don't have time to get involved in things like that.
CAVUTO: Do you find it tacky at this time that he is?
PAUL: I just have no opinion whatsoever.
I stay completely out of that stuff, because, really, we have too many important things to talk about. We have been at war for 17 years in Afghanistan. And I do bug the president. When I talk to the president, what I talk to him about is, let's get the hell out of Afghanistan. We have no military mission over there. There is no military solution.
And so I guess I just want to spend all my time on that. I'm just not interested in all that other business.
CAVUTO: No, it's all right. I just wonder. You are trying to stick to that. The president did not. That worries some in your party that he is wandering off-script here.
I guess I just spend my time, you know, talking about the things -- you know, I did speak to the president this weekend. And I told him that we need to cut off arms to Saudi Arabia.
And I try to use any powers of persuasion I have to let him know they are not our friends, and that, really, the war in Yemen -- he talks about how the war in Iraq was such a mistake. He has been very consistent and strong on that.
CAVUTO: All right.
PAUL: The war in Yemen is exactly the same way. It's going to lead to chaos and it will lead to be another festering ground for terrorism.
CAVUTO: All right, Senator Rand Paul, thank you very much.
All right, just taking one last look at the corner of Wall and Broad, we were up about 547 points, worries subsiding. We will see what happens tomorrow.
"The Five" is now.
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