Recap of Saturday, March 3


Bulls & Bears | Cavuto on Business | Forbes on FOX | Cashin' In

Bulls & Bears

This past week's Bulls & Bears: Gary B. Smith, Exemplar Capital managing partner; Tobin Smith, ChangeWave Research editor; Scott Bleier, president; Gary Kaltbaum, Kaltbaum & Associates president, and Adam Lashinsky , Fortune magazine senior writer.

Trading Pit: Buy or Sell After Last Week's Sell-Off

Wall Street hit with a stunning sell-off on Tuesday. The Dow plunged over 500 points and would down 416 points on the day. That was just the first of wild swings for stocks. The fallout? By Friday, the blue chips had lost 533 points or 4 percent on the week. So what do you do now? Is Monday morning the time to buy or sell?

Tobin: I've got a list and I'm buying! This is just like May and June of last year when the fighting in Israel and Lebanon surprised everyone. When oil prices shoot up—stocks tank! Get out the list of stocks you want to buy and if you get your price, you need to buy now.

Gary B: I think Toby's right, Brenda. This is like May and June of last year…but the time to buy then was July! The Dow has been in a serious uptrend since we broke Dow 12,000 in late 2006. But that uptrend was broken this past week. Since 2004 there has been a much more steady and sustainable rate of growth, which would put us around Dow 11,000. I think stocks are going to drop more, so I'd wait to buy.

Adam: Last week's sell-off has echoes of 1998 when events in Russia and Thailand spooked stocks. The question now, as it was then: Is the economy in good shape? The good news for us in 2007 is that economy is in good shape. That's why I think stocks are going up from here, even if it's not right away.

Gary K.: Sell! I don't know what the market will be like a year or two from now. But, the complexion of the market changed this week in a big way. And it's not just our market, but the world's markets, and that just doesn't change very quickly. I think there's at least as much downside as what happened last May, when the Dow and S&P lost about 9 percent and Nasdaq dropped 18 percent. We haven't had a bear market in four years. Bear markets do occur, and I think that could be where we're headed.

Scott: You have to sell here. I don't think we're going to have a bear market just because we haven't had one in four years. However, I also don't think you buy just because the market began its dip last week. Like Gary K. said, the complexion of the market has changed and it's going to take some time to work out. We need to find a bottom, which is probably about half of the gains we have made since July. Then we'll bounce around and establish a trading range. And that's when you'll find the opportunity to buy the stocks you want.

America's $trength

Deadly tornadoes rip through the Southeast. But this wicked weather is not the only thing hitting us hard. Add 'em up: the economy is weathering a war on terror, a manic market, a crazy guy in Iran, and the threat of tax hikes. Is our economy up to it?

Gary B: We have made it through two World Wars, double-digit inflation, and 9/11. It's going to take a lot more than this to really damage the economy! The only caveat is if a nuclear or biological weapon goes off in a major city. That could be the "straw that breaks the camel's back."

Gary K: If you had told me that all of these things were going to happen, I would have thought we would have been in a recession. The economy has been phenomenal, but I think there could be some issues within the next year.

Tobin: There is a reason why we are not in a recession. We have the world's most spread out economy, with many diversified sectors. The proof is that we've been hit with so much in the past ten years, and still haven't been knocked out. We're a service economy, not a manufacturing one. We're not an economy that needs to export as much as we need to consume. That is the inherit strength of our diversity.

Adam: In the last few years, there has been a lot of capital available at very attractive credit rates. No matter what happens to credit over the next few years, all the projects that have begun are going to filter out into the economy. Every time you see a hole being dug, or a crane in the air constructing a building, that's providing jobs and creating opportunity throughout the country. This is not ending anytime soon.

Scott: We are the most resourceful and richest nation in the world. Since 2002-2003 we have had a very powerful business cycle. People forget that cycles do wind down. That may be what's happening now. And that means the stock market will pull back and create a buying opportunity.

Stock X-Change

Stocks for everyone! No matter your time frame, our guys have picked their perfect pick for you.

If you want to watch what each had to say about their stock pick, click here.

Gary B.: ProFunds UltraShort QQQ (QID )

Tobin: Energy Conversion Devices (ENER )

Gary K.: Coca-Cola (KO )

Scott: Oceaneering International (OII )

Adam: NeuStar (NSR )


Gary B's prediction: Forget all the bad pre$$! Buy Bank of America (BAC )

Tobin's prediction: Goldman Sachs (GS ) up 10 percent by next week's "Bulls & Bears"

Gary K's prediction: Gain from losses; ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS ) up 20 percent

Scott's prediction: Gas goes up to $3/gallon; Tesoro (TSO ) gains 30 percent

Adam's prediction: Make a boatload of money with Carnival (CCL ); up 20 percent

Bulls & Bears | Cavuto on Business | Forbes on FOX | Cashin' In

Cavuto on Business

On Saturday, March 3rd, Neil Cavuto was joined by Ben Stein, "Yes, You Can Get a Financial Life" author; Gregg Hymowitz, FOX News Business Contributor; Joe Battipaglia, Ryan Beck & Co.; Tracy Byrnes, NY Post Business Writer; and Charles Payne , Wall Street Strategies CEO.

Bottom Line

Neil: Stock Shock. A week of manic selloffs and dramatic rebounds on Wall Street. Is the worst over or still to come? Ben, more turmoil to come?

Ben Stein: Well, there'll be more turmoil. As J.P. Morgan famously said when asked about the stock market, "It will fluctuate." But there's no reason we should have had this giant drop a few days ago. There's no reason why we should have a big drop at all. The market's not at all expensive by historical standards. There's no sign of a recession. Mr Greenspan has recanted now and says he doesn't think there was going to be a recession. Anyway, he's not much of a predictor. I don't know how we'll be the next few weeks. I know if you buy now, five years from now you'll be very happy.

Neil: Charles, what do you make of that? Maybe this week was an aberration and calmer times prevail?

Charles Payne: I don't think this was an aberration, but we go through this once or twice a year. Last year we went through it, but it was prolonged over a couple of months. We had to pull back and I think everybody expected it to happen. Nobody got in the way. Everybody talked all year long that the market was due. It's one of the longest rallies ever without a substantial correction. When it happened, we all moved out of the way.

Joe Battipaglia: Well, the problem here is that the U.S. economy is in a deteriorating pattern, corporate profits are rolling over, and the credit culture that we've had has run out of gas. Not only is it a problem in the subprime market, but it's also starting to affect the prime market. So when 20, 30, 40 percent of the borrowers in the economy don't have access to credit, it does eat away at the economy, businesses get defensive, and I think analysts overestimated profits, thus the correction

Neil: Joe, are you bearish?

Joe: I am. Last year, there were three things happening. One, the Fed stood aside. Two, the economy grew at 3.5 percent. And three, profits grew by 20 percent. We can't say the same things this year like we did last year.

Neil: All right, that's like me saying vegetables, everybody!

Gregg: It's a rare thing, but I agree with Joe. To Ben's point, I don't think you need this economy to go into what is classically defined as a recession, for the stock market to have some difficulty. Even one, two percent nominal growth here is going to feel a lot like a recession. I agree. Ben is right in the sense that the market is not expensive. That might create some underpinning here. But the economy is going to have some rough go ahead. If you speak to the stress debt investors and credit guys out there, all of them are bracing for the next economic downturn, and usually the fixed income guys tend to get it right much better than the equity guys.

Neil: Sensing that rates are going to stay low, Tracy…that could be the bottom for the markets, right?

Tracy: Absolutely. But at the same time, I think this cleanup is good -- a little correction. We can't call what happened the other day a full correction. You're looking at 7 or 8 percent before it could be a correction. But we have a lot of over-optimism there. We've got a lot of speculators in the market and prices are high, so maybe this is just a good thing for the market to just reset itself. Not to mention that the last eight times the market fell 3 percent or more, it recovered 30 days later. People don't need to panic with this thing.

Neil: Here is what worries me. Everyone seems to be saying, "Don't worry. Everything's going to be hunky-dory." Should I worry when no one else is?

Ben: There's never been a substantial market correction without serious mistakes in monetary policy precipitating it. I don't see any signs of serious mistakes in monetary policy. The two giant corrections that lasted for a long time were in the late 20's/early 30's and in the 70's, both because of mistakes in monetary policy. We're not seeing those same kinds of mistakes. Monetary policy's in firm hands. There is simply no reason to panic whatsoever. I'm not quite sure what Mr. Joe Battipaglia is talking about, that 20 to 40 percent of the people are deprived of credit. I'm not sure who you're talking about.

Joe: There's $1.3 trillion in subprime mortgages. 20 percent of them are already delinquent. There's $1.2 trillion of adjustable rate mortgages going up this year and already the delinquency rate is rising there. New home sales year over year have dropped 20 percent, so there's a part of our population that cannot get access to credit. They're turning off the spigot. It's a credit-driven problem.

Ben: It's nowhere near 20 to 40 percent of the population! It's 20 to 40 percent of the subprime borrowers, which is a small group. You're talking about a tempest in a teapot.

Head to Head

For this segment, Neil was joined by Chris Kofinis, Wake Up Wal-Mart spokesperson.

Neil: Wal-Mart versus General Motors: the Democratic-led House passing a bill this past week that will essentially make it easier for workers to unionize just like at GM. Wal-Mart -- as of now -- is non-Union. Which company is better for America?

Joe: If you compare the two, Wal-Mart has created jobs over the past 20 years and GM has destroyed jobs. Wal-Mart has created wealth for its suppliers and shareholders, even employees who became shareholders. GM has destroyed it. Lastly, Wal-Mart has helped keep retail prices low, which is a non-inflationary thing helpful to the economy.

Neil: Chris Kofinis, Mr. "Wake Up Wal-Mart"…how do you feel about that?

Chris Kofinis: I think it's a complete misunderstanding of the negative impact Wal-Mart has. You want to talk about apples and oranges, Wal-Mart has done more to hurt the middle class than any other corporation in this country. This is a company that fails to provide health care to 53 percent of its workers. It pays poverty-level wages. The average full-time worker makes about $17,000 a year. Wal-Mart's done more to ship American jobs overseas than any other corporation in history.

Neil: Ben, what do you think of that? Wal-Mart is Lucifer?

Ben: I love Wal-Mart, and I suspect I'm the only person on this set who's a Union member. I'm a member of three AFL/CIO unions and proud to be a Union man. If Wal-Mart workers want to unionize, it's fine by me. Wal-Mart is an incredibly great company. It has kept prices low. Everyone around a Wal-Mart essentially gets a wage increase because Wal-Mart comes in there. It doesn't destroy the middle class, it makes the middle class much better off. I also love General Motors. GM makes the best cars in the world; I drive only GM cars, and I would hate to see something terrible happen to that company. Going back, Wal-Mart is the bedrock of American shopping.

Chris: If Wal-Mart's the "bedrock of America," then we're all on shaky ground right now. That's a terrible statement.

Gregg: The Wal-Mart/GM question you pose is really the union/non-union question. GM's problems have not been only about the unions. There's a whole host of other problems that the auto industry in the U.S. has faced. There are plenty of companies that are unionized that do very well—UPS, Southwest Airlines—so it's not really a Union issue.

Neil: But that contract, the contracts that were signed for one era are not right for this one—

Gregg: To the question you asked about Congress' law, the idea of being able to make it easier to be a union. The card-check law is just that. It's supposed to allow employees to be able to make the decision to join a union without the interference of the company.

Charles: As Joe said, GM lost a lot of value for its people. There was a time when we needed unions in this country. I believe that the era of paying for the wrongs to the average worker is probably over. My point is that because of the unions, General Motors cannot compete.

Tracy Byrnes: Ford pays $41,000 a year more per employee because of these contracts that were signed moons ago by the unions. The unions had their time, they had their place. They now in some ways promote complacency. You can't fire people.

Neil: Chris, you've heard this. If Wal-Mart was to unionize tomorrow, would you be off their butt or what?

Chris: There are two ways Wal-Mart can become a more responsible employer. I think by unionizing and providing their workers with better wages and better health care, that'll be a great thing. They can also change on their own. This is a question about responsibility.

Neil: You didn't answer my question, Chris. It's a simple one, because I'm a simple guy. If Wal-Mart unionizes tomorrow, will you leave it alone?

Chris: If Wal-Mart becomes a responsible employer, either through unionizing or on their own, absolutely.

Ben: Nobody is compelling anyone at gunpoint to work at Wal-Mart. I suspect I'm not only the only union man on this stage, but the only one who shops regularly at Wal-Mart. Workers there are in a very cheerful mood, they're in a very happy frame of mind.

Chris: I have thousands of workers you can come and speak to. These are people who call me on the phone and cry because they can't pay their bills, and that's because they're getting paid so poorly. They get their hours cut, they don't have affordable health care.

Charles: Chris talks about Wal-Mart being responsible. Unions have to be responsible too. You talk about a couple of successful places…I'm not anti-union, but unions are totally irresponsible.

Neil: Joe, is this ultimately a union argument?

Joe: The unions for the last fifty years have argued for more benefits and more money against the auto industry and it came to terms and it continued to work. Fifty years later they have lost two-thirds of their work force, down to 500,000 workers. Is that a successful record?

Neil: Chris, last question to you: have you ever shopped at a Wal-Mart?

Chris: This is not about low prices, you don't think I love low prices? I do, but what I love even more is responsibility. That's what the American people want.

More For Your Money

Everyone picked stocks they say are panic-free!

If you want to watch what each had to say about their stock, click here.

Charles: Altria Group (MO)

Tracy: Proctor & Gamble (PG)

Gregg: Nabors Industries (NBR)

Joe: SPDRs (SPY)

Ben: iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA)

FOX on the Spot

Joe: Housing market still sliding; sell, home builders!

Gregg: Housing market avoids disaster with refinancings

Charles: Emerging market hype is over; buy U.S. stocks!

Tracy: Buy Dell (DELL) when others are selling!

Ben: Market will keep going, you won't. Say, "I love you!"

Neil: Market mayhem leads Fed to ease interest rates

Bulls & Bears | Cavuto on Business | Forbes on FOX | Cashin' In

Forbes on FOX

In Focus: Would Stock Market Crash If Dems Raise Taxes?

Steve Forbes, editor-in-chief: If they repeal the tax cuts of 2003 it would send the market down. If they raise capital gains by 1/3 or more it would send the market off 20 percent or more. It would be even worse than what happened in China last week. When you put burdens on risk-taking and innovation the markets feel them. The markets are already undervalued by fears of what the Democrats are going to do.

Elizabeth MacDonald, senior editor: Foreign investors came here in droves after the Bush tax cuts. The Democrats have yet to realize that they need a John F. Kennedy Democrat to win the White House. JFK knew to cut taxes and the economy rocketed. Reagan did the same thing.

Quentin Hardy, Silicon Valley bureau chief: They made these tax cuts in 2001/2002 saying they'll expire later. Now there's a gun to your head saying make them permanent. If you can't justify how your revenues are going to come in, that just doesn't work for me. If taxes have to go up, they have to go up.

John Rutledge, Forbes contributor: Tax cuts in this case took the stock market from 7,500 to 12,000. They tripled dividend income. If they hiked tax rates on capital gains you'd lose 1,500 points on the Dow right away and 2,500 over time. This week is a wake up call, higher tax rates are terrible for the stock market and another wake up call that we shouldn't lean on China.

Jim Michaels, editorial vice president: If Dems put in a tax increase tomorrow, it would hit the market hard. But it won't happen that way. The Democrats haven't proposed it yet. They have to get their party behind it, and then pass it through Congress. Then they have to worry about a Bush veto. It would hit the markets in stages. Each one would be discounted in.

Mike Ozanian, senior editor: What bothers me now is that even Republicans in Congress aren't standing tall against tax cuts. They want to keep the Alternative Minimum Tax the same. And to pay for that Republican support, they are going to increase taxes by $50 billion.

Is Our Economy Already in a Rece$$ion?

Mark Tatge, Chicago bureau chief: We're sliding into a recession as we speak. I think there is a real problem out there, look at manufacturing. We've lost a lot of jobs. We have auto companies that are about to slip in to bankruptcy, the housing bubble has burst, consumer spending is weak, it was a terrible Christmas. Where is this growth going to come from? They keep revising the numbers for growth down. I think we may already be in a recession.

Dennis Kneale, managing editor: We are not in a recession and we are not heading for one. Growth is still going well, there will be no Fed rate increase, and interest rates are still at historic lows. If you haven't sold your home, then you haven't lost money. Stop worrying and get back to business.

Victoria Barret, associate editor: Could we be in a recession? Yes! But our economy has weathered a lot and can weather a slowdown.

Steve Forbes: We are not heading into a recession. What is amazing is that after all the hits this economy has taken it's still growing. Consumer income is still going up, profits are going up. What is wrong with the country? Congress and the Federal Reserve that's what, not the economy.

Mike Ozanian: We have something to worry about when Congress is in session. No one is safe. They're conspiring to do three things that can really hurt us. Make trade more difficult, raise interest rates and take over more of the economy.

Neil Weinberg, senior editor: Just remember who got their money out of the stock market before the bubble burst in 2000. This whole expansion has been built on cheap credit. What happened in the stock market this week is investors decided on whether they want to keep doing this- with mortgages and junk bonds. If credit tightens, all bets are off and we'll go into a recession.

Informer: Rece$$ion-Proof Stocks

If you want to hear what each panelist had to say about his or her stock pick, click here.

Lea Goldman: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

John Rutledge: iShares Dow Jones U.S. Utilities (IDU)

Neil Weinberg: Exxon Mobil (XOM)

Victoria Barret: Laboratory Corporation of America (LH)

Dennis Kneale: Time Warner (TWX)

Flipside: Be$t Way to Win War on Terror: Boycott Europe!

Elizabeth MacDonald: I'm sick and tired of the way Europe has been acting. They're punting on the original war on terror in Afghanistan. They're pulling out more troops and the ones there won't fight. France won't even list Hezbollah as a terrorist group. Send a message. Stop buying European goods and stop vacationing in Europe. Boycotts have worked in places like South Africa.

Lea Goldman: We tried boycotts, remember freedom fries? It didn't work then and it won't work now. Americans want out of Iraq anyway, so why would they want to boycott.

Jim Michaels: Back in the 1930s Jewish groups boycotted German goods. And it didn't change their policy but it did hurt them. Don't have an open boycott and get their backs up. Do it quietly.

Quentin Hardy: This attitude of a playground bully never got us anywhere. Boycotting our allies will only worsen our relationship with them.

Steve Forbes: If you want to stay away from Europe go to Disney Land. The key thing is President Bush has to convince the American people that we're doing the right thing with the War on Terror. Then we can go after Europe.

Bulls & Bears | Cavuto on Business | Forbes on FOX | Cashin' In

Cashin' In

Our Cashin' In crew this week: Wayne Rogers, Wayne Rogers & Co; Jonathan Hoenig, CapitalistPig Asset Management; Jonas Max Ferris,; Dagen McDowell, Fox Business News; Patricia Powell, Powell Financial Group; Greg Warr, Warr LLC; and Rep. Tom Price , R-Ga., member of the House Financial Services committee.

Stock Smarts: What the Stock Market Can Learn From Ronald Reagan

It was a roller coaster week for investors with stocks taking a beating around the globe. If we look back to the stock market crash of 1987, President Ronald Reagan came out and reassured the nation that our economic fundamentals were sound and there was no need to panic. He was confident that stocks would come back over the long-term because he believed in the economy. What lessons can we learn from the Gipper?

Patricia: President Reagan was absolutely right that it really is about the economy. Sometimes the markets and economy get out of sync for a while, but long-term investors will be paying attention to the economy. Yes, the economy is slowing, but that's not new information. The economy is not crashing, and the stock market should not be crashing either. However, I think the market has more downside ahead. We're just about half way through the correction. This past week wasn't really much of a correction in the US markets. We're probably heading back down to 11,500. If we go down more than that, it could be a great buying opportunity.

Jonathan: What we saw on Tuesday wasn't anything like 1987. This was a 3 percent drop. We haven't had any volatility in the market. What we can learn from Ronald Reagan is that he generally trusted markets.

Wayne: I don't put a lot of credence in this. Technically, we did have a correction and we probably will see a little more correction. I think it will work itself out because the economy is in great shape. This drop that we saw is not an economic thing at all. It was just a matter of more sellers than buyers. The Chinese economy is very hot, and got a little overheated, so it had a correction. No big deal.

Dagen: It is important for our leaders to come out and reassure people, but they can't say too much. The White House said just enough this week, but maybe Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said too much. A lot of people on the street thought he overstepped his boundary by talking too much about the super risky mortgage loans that everyone is worried about. Tuesday was a great opportunity to just look at what you own and ask yourself, "Am I taking too much risk?" If you don't have enough cash, get more in cash. Put some in a savings account where you can get 6 percent.

Jonas: Just before the market crash in 1987, Ronald Reagan reassured the country after a few days of minor corrections. This then led to a massive bloodbath October 19, 1987. But he then reassured us again. If the economy is strong, a 20 percent correction could be a buying opportunity. However, if things are a little overvalued and there's a 3-4 percent correction, that is not the time to get in.

Housing Market: Buy Now or Be Sorry Later?

Greg: Whenever something doesn't look good, that's the best time to get in. You've got to go against the trend. Right now is the absolute perfect time for real estate. Interest rates are low, so it's a time for good deals. However, some areas, like New York City, are very hot and hitting all-time highs. With Wall Street down this past week, there was $37½ billion that left the market. That's a trigger point. That money has to go someplace. It's similar to what was going on in 2000, with the exception that interest rates are already low. Also, there's no need to worry about the housing start numbers because those are lagging indicators.

Wayne: We're nowhere near the bottom of the housing market. We've seen sub-prime loans beginning to go south, but we haven't seen foreclosures yet. We're just in the beginning of the price adjustment phase, which takes about a year to run itself through. Then, comes the foreclosure stage.

Dagen: Wayne is absolutely right. Prices are absolutely going lower in most of the country. If you are in the market for a house, you can pick your spot. That will have to happen because homes are still not affordable in areas like California, Nevada, and Florida. The lenders have been tightening, which will hurt too.

Patricia: If you have to buy, be very careful about buying. If you don't have to buy, stay put. This is all about debt. We're just starting to see some of the numbers and some information coming out. Plus, there was big news from Freddie Mac this week that it was not going to be buying sub-prime loans. This ends liquidity in the market and I think the guys on the margin are in trouble.

Jonathan: It's just not a strong asset class. If billionaire real-estate entrepreneur, Sam Zell is selling, that's not a great time to be putting money into real estate. Why not buy a home you can afford? Those that are buying the McMansions with Jacuzzis are the ones that are getting in trouble. If you buy a home you can afford, you will do well even if housing prices drop 20 percent.

Should Congress Step In to Stop Credit Cards for Illegals?

A move in Congress proposing to stop banks from offering loans to customers using taxpayer IDs. If this proposal moves forward and is passed, it would effectively kill Bank of America's controversial new credit card program. Is this a good move for Congress?

Rep. Tom Price, R-Ga.: We're holding hearings so that the federal government's rules and regulations make sure that financial institutions have to show that the individuals they are providing credit to are here legally. It was never the intent of Congress to have a rule in place in which illegal immigrants can get credit.

Jonathan: I am against a bill. Don't you think that these immigrants that are here want $500 to spend on groceries at Wal-Mart? Don't you think they want to be here legally? Would you support finding a way to help them become legal?

Rep. Price: The need for hearings is to determine if there is a large loophole which allows financial institutions to provide credit for those that are here illegally.

Jonathan: What if they have credit? Are they violating your rights by buying $500 worth of groceries?

Rep. Price: They are not violating my rights, but in this post-9/11 world, what everyone in this nation is required to do is be a little more attentive. We need to make certain that the people that are in our country are here legally.

Wayne: It's a free market. If Bank of America wants to lend illegal immigrants money; it's the Bank of America's promise, not the government's problem. Some of them have very good credit, so why not let them engage in free market enterprise? If the government was giving loans, that's a different thing.

Rep. Price: This is back door amnesty. If you start offering credit, you're allowing illegals to have mortgages and allowing them to participate completely in society. This is back door amnesty. I don't think that's what the American people want.

Wayne: If that is true, then you need to change the immigration laws. You shouldn't penalize the private enterprise.

Rep. Price: The fundamental flaw here is the responsibility of the federal government. The federal government hasn't done its job in being able to provide financial institutions, banks, or employers with real time information that is reliable on the legality of the individuals.

Best Bets: Rece$$ion-Proof Funds

Click here to watch this segment in its entirety.

Patricia: T. Rowe Price Balanced Fund (RPBAX)

Minimum investment: $2,500

Jonas: Gateway (GATEX). I own this pick.

Minimum investment: $1,000

Jonathan: CurrencyShares Swiss Franc (FXF). I own.

Friday's close: $82.30