Lottery fever is gripping the nation
Mega Millions lottery prize is second-largest in U.S. history. Panel sounds off.
This is a rush transcript from "Your World," October 19, 2018. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.
NEIL CAVUTO, HOST: All right. You got to be in it to win it. And at better than a billion bucks, it looks like everybody wants to at least be in it.
Welcome, everyone. I'm Neil Cavuto.
Well, lines are popping up pretty much across the country of folks who are trying their luck for tonight's Mega Millions jackpot. The grand prize is now, as I said, worth a staggering billion dollars, and it is moving up fast and furiously.
We have got FBN's Kristina Partsinevelos in New York City, where lotto fever is hitting a fever pitch -- Kristina.
KRISTINA PARTSINEVELOS, FOX NEWS BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: What we know right now is that, yes, it's climbed to a billion dollars.
You add the Powerball, which is at $470 million, you're looking at close to $1.5 billion up for grabs. So, of course, you have got these lovely smiling people behind me right now.
Sir, what did you get? You bought your ticket?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No speak English.
PARTSINEVELOS: Oh, no speak English. OK.
So he just got a ticket. He is hoping he's going to win. Every single person that walks into this store has been buying tickets.
But what are the odds? What are the odds of actually winning the Powerball and the Mega Millions? One in 88 quadrillion. One in 88 quadrillion. If you were to focus just on the Mega Million, because that's the one that is being drawn tonight, your chances are about one in 302 million.
You are more likely to get hit by an asteroid, you are more likely to get a royal flush in poker and you're more likely to unfortunately get attacked by a shark in the ocean.
So, therefore, your odds aren't that great. And yet, are you buying a ticket?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I am.
PARTSINEVELOS: What would you do if you won the money?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Oh, God. What wouldn't I do, to have so much money? I don't even know where to begin.
PARTSINEVELOS: You don't even know where to begin.
Did you know that, after taxes, so after federal taxes, state taxes and local city taxes, you would only be able to take $565 million? Is that OK?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That's good. That's fine.
PARTSINEVELOS: We got many people that are so happy here. One woman telling me that her heart was palpitating when she was buying it because she was feeling lucky today.
So, Neil, there's a lot of people still waiting to buy it, excited about all the money that could be won.
CAVUTO: All right, so let me understand. You got the Mega Millions one at a better than a billion, and then you have got the Powerball. That's over $400 million.
So the odds again, you said of winning both of those?
PARTSINEVELOS: One in 88 quadrillion.
CAVUTO: Wow.
PARTSINEVELOS: Do how many zeros that is?
CAVUTO: That's a lot. Sure. Sure. Holy cow.
PARTSINEVELOS: Yes, exactly.
CAVUTO: Geez.
(LAUGHTER)
CAVUTO: All right, I better tell Hannity that, because he has no idea.
All right, thank you very, very much, Kristina.
It is stunning, isn't it?
All right, so what do you do? They say you have to be in it to win it. You know the drill and you know the odds. But record numbers are getting into this.
Let's get the read from radio host Mike Gunzelman, AKA, Gunz. Author Michael Parrish DuDell is here, and The Wall Street Journal's Jillian Melchior.
So, Jillian, end it with you, begin with you.
Kristina was interviewing a lot of people today. Some were spending hundreds of dollars on these tickets. It's one thing to pick up a $2 ticket and take your chances. But a lot of people, it's everything.
JILLIAN MELCHIOR, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL: Yes.
I mean, I think the clear winner here is the government. A lot of tax money going to go to this, but yes.
CAVUTO: You know, Stuart Varney hates that. He will not participate. He is so cheap.
(LAUGHTER)
CAVUTO: He will not participate, because half the money is going for the government. He finds that insulting.
MELCHIOR: Well, I'm not going to get a lottery ticket either, but I just...
CAVUTO: Really?
MELCHIOR: Yes. I really like my life so it is. I think that if I got a lottery ticket, not a lot would change. It always comes with a ton of drama.
(CROSSTALK)
MELCHIOR: I like my apartment. I like my job. Yes.
CAVUTO: You could buy the building.
(CROSSTALK)
MICHAEL PARRISH DUDELL, ENTREPRENEUR: Many buildings, in fact. Many buildings.
MIKE GUNZELMAN, INTERNET RADIO HOST: I'm set.
(CROSSTALK)
GUNZELMAN: I am set. One each. I don't need 100 of them. I don't have $100 to waste, but I had $2 each.
CAVUTO: What do you think of what she is saying?
DUDELL: I don't think that a lot of young people are buying lottery tickets. Maybe this time, because it's a billion dollars. Nobody has won since July.
But for the most part -- first of all, you have to buy lottery tickets with cash. Who has cash? What is cash? I don't ever have any cash on me. It's all cards. I think less young people are buying it. People are going to come out today because it's an event.
(CROSSTALK)
CAVUTO: Yes, but someone wins.
DUDELL: Somebody sometimes win, yes, yes.
CAVUTO: And it's oftentimes someone who has never played. You ever notice that, someone who has never played the lottery?
GUNZELMAN: Which is great for me, because I can't afford to play a lot of the time. So, I'm set on this.
And for anybody who says, oh, winning all that money would be terrible, you are an idiot. Winning that much money is going to be awesome. I will tell you when I win it in a couple hours. Let's go.
MELCHIOR: I don't know what the odds of this are.
But one time I went to a baseball game and struck up a conversation with the person behind me, and it turns out he was a lottery winner and was telling me about much family drama it stirred up and how much conflict. So, yes, I will avoid the curse of the lottery.
CAVUTO: In most places, you have to go public. Right? You can't hide your identity.
DUDELL: That is actually changing.
CAVUTO: Is it really?
DUDELL: Yes. There was a court case last year in New Hampshire. Someone wanted to be anonymous.
CAVUTO: I remember that.
DUDELL: Yes. So, this is happening in different states now.
(CROSSTALK)
CAVUTO: Well, if you won, if you played and you won -- apparently, you didn't have any cash. It's two bucks. I don't know what your deal is. Would you be OK with like the world knowing?
DUDELL: No, I wouldn't be OK, especially not Gunz.
(CROSSTALK)
DUDELL: I don't want this guy to know that I won.
(CROSSTALK)
GUNZELMAN: The first rule of winning is, the first rule of winning is, change your cell phone number. Get a good lawyer.
(CROSSTALK)
CAVUTO: To Jillian's point, a lot these -- this is an unusual case here. It would almost be impossible to lose this amount of money, although Mike Tyson lost a billion dollars from ring purses.
But a lot of lotto winners do go broke, right?
MELCHIOR: Yes. It's interesting. You can either take the payout out front or get it gradually over the course of your life.
And it's often a very instant gratification thing. I would like to see the lottery come with a bunch of financial advice for how to make that a sustainable thing for your family.
CAVUTO: Well, you got a lot of people volunteering to do that.
MELCHIOR: Yes, exactly.
CAVUTO: And that's the problem, because you got a lot of moochers who come in and all.
How would you handle moochers or friends or people...
GUNZELMAN: I would, like I said, change the number. And they're dead to me. You know what I mean? It's all mine.
But I would actually -- I would be a good millionaire. I would take care of some people. I would take care of you.
CAVUTO: That's so nice of you.
(CROSSTALK)
GUNZELMAN: It's a bribe.
CAVUTO: Do you get a little bit more excited, though, when the numbers are so big? This isn't a record, but it's certainly in the top.
(CROSSTALK)
GUNZELMAN: It's gone viral.
There's no doubt the reason people are talking about this so much is nobody has won, and it's been going on for over a week plus and it's gone viral.
People that don't talk about it are now talking about it because it's fun. And, hey, it's two bucks. Why not? Hey, everyone is talking about it online, Instagram, et cetera. So, yes.
DUDELL: It's $1 billion. I don't think anyone can really wrap their mind about what that means, to all of a sudden wake up one morning, have won a billion dollars.
(CROSSTALK)
CAVUTO: But would any of you be any differently if you won all that?
DUDELL: Entirely different, Neil. I would act completely different.
(CROSSTALK)
(LAUGHTER)
DUDELL: And anybody that says otherwise is lying to you.
(CROSSTALK)
DUDELL: We're talking about $500 million in cash overnight. I think I would be a better version of myself.
(CROSSTALK)
CAVUTO: Well, see, that's why Jillian doesn't want anything to do with it.
(CROSSTALK)
GUNZELMAN: I'm very humble. I don't know if you know this about me. I'm very humble. So, I could definitely say the same.
CAVUTO: All right. I'm just wondering what happens.
Now, there's a possibility we don't get a winner tonight, right?
DUDELL: That's true.
CAVUTO: Then it automatically goes up probably another quarter of a billion dollars.
DUDELL: And we will be back here talking about it.
(CROSSTALK)
CAVUTO: Would you come back in?
GUNZELMAN: Count me in.
CAVUTO: So, you would?
MELCHIOR: Yes.
CAVUTO: If you won -- I know you're not participating -- would you go back to work and all that?
(CROSSTALK)
MELCHIOR: I would. Yes.
CAVUTO: You would?
MELCHIOR: Yes.
(CROSSTALK)
CAVUTO: I don't believe that.
MELCHIOR: I would have to take a really nice vacation with my friends.
CAVUTO: Really?
MELCHIOR: But, yes, I would.
(CROSSTALK)
CAVUTO: And then you would put up with the nonsense of the abusive boss and all that other stuff? Not that that happens at The Journal. But you would go through all of that?
MELCHIOR: Yes. I love it.
(CROSSTALK)
CAVUTO: I was reading -- doing actually some research for this. It happens.
That a lot of the people who say they go back to work and go back, they're not there very long. Usually, it's less than a year.
GUNZELMAN: Oh, it has got to be awkward. It has got to be awkward. It's terrible.
CAVUTO: And it's proportionate to the amount of money they win. If you win a real lot of money, and you say you are going to go back to work, you're out there. But the less you win, you might hang on a little longer. But you're out.
DUDELL: I think it's hard to sort of mentally think about compensation the same way if you have all of this money, every day you show up, and you're like, what am I doing? Am I really working -- what am I working for?
MELCHIOR: Well, hopefully, you're doing it for your enjoyment, then. Hopefully, you're doing it for your enjoyment.
DUDELL: That's the hope, yes.
MELCHIOR: But I just with like that much money, especially if you haven't earned it, it's hard to appreciate it and it's hard to make the same choices that you would.
(CROSSTALK)
CAVUTO: This Powerball Debbie Downer here.
(CROSSTALK)
DUDELL: There's a reason why they're on that side of the table and we're over here arguing for that $500 million.
GUNZELMAN: Show me the money. Show me the money.
(CROSSTALK)
CAVUTO: You would be corrupt.
(LAUGHTER)
(CROSSTALK)
MELCHIOR: I don't want that temptation.
CAVUTO: Yes. You don't want it. He does. And that's a worthy goal.
DUDELL: I would be different, but I'm going to be a nice version of me. Gunz, like, can't.
(CROSSTALK)
CAVUTO: I think you would. I think you would.
All right, guys, best of luck regardless. I know you're not getting involved. Wouldn't that be a kick if one of these...
(CROSSTALK)
CAVUTO: That's what I'm talking about.
GUNZELMAN: Show me the money.
CAVUTO: Just want to let you know, Gunz, I am a certified financial planner.
(LAUGHTER)
CAVUTO: All right. Let's take a look.
You kind of were looking at that today at the corner of Wall and Broad. I have a feeling that any of these potential winners wouldn't -- probably wouldn't be focusing on day-to-day movements in the Dow.
But, today, we finished on the upside. Remember, a lot of this, of course, occurs on the anniversary, the 31st anniversary, before any of these people were born, of the 1987 stock market crash, when a lot of people thought we'd never come back, and we did, and we fell, and we came back after that, and we fell, but the inexorable direction was up, whether you were participating in the lottery or not.
More after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CAVUTO: It's a bigger caravan, a caravan of migrant bound for the United States are tearing down a border gate in Guatemala, rushing toward a border bridge in Mexico, this as the secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, is in Mexico, meeting at this hour with President Nieto, in a bid to shut this down or at least get the Mexicans to control this.
No indications they have made much progress.
Griff Jenkins is on the U.S.-Mexico border in McAllen, Texas.
Griff, are they prepared for this?
GRIFF JENKINS, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Neil, I'm not sure they're ready for that caravan to get up here
Here in McAllen, Texas, behind me, the processing center, they had a busy day, more than 60-plus arrests. I was there for most of them. But the scene there on the Mexico-Guatemala border is just chaos, the massive caravan of migrants mostly from Honduras charging bridges, scaling fences to get over there.
The officials here keeping a very, very close eye on both the talks with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the progress we're making.
The officials here in the Border Patrol tell me, Neil, that they're very encouraged by what's really unprecedented cooperation with the Mexican officials. But, as you can see, that problem that's unfolding there all day long on the Mexico-Guatemala border is one that will be headed shortly for this border here.
Now, in McAllen, Texas, this is the RGV, Rio Grande Valley, sector. It is the single busiest sector in the entire U.S.-Mexico border, and this day has an overwhelming spike in numbers already before that caravan of migrants gets here. They have on average, Neil, more than 641 illegal arrests a day. It's overwhelming.
About half of them are made up of family units of which they're seeing in this area a 300 percent increase from last year. Overall, we had more than 16,000 family member units arrested just last month.
That is an 80 percent increase from July, when the administration reversed its zero tolerance policy. The reason being is that the cartels see the fact that our detention centers are full as a driver, as an incentive for them to come.
And it's the same reason why that caravan of migrants is driving so hard to get across the Mexican border and ultimately up here and try and end up in a processing center right behind me here in McAllen -- Neil.
CAVUTO: All right, Griff, thank you very, very much, Griff Jenkins following this very, very closely, as this caravan makes its way here.
The question is, how many of those who are in that caravan will be at the U.S. border? Remember in the case of the last one, it has whittled down to quite -- quite a smaller number, but we will be watching it.
In the meantime, Turkey's foreign minister is saying that his country will share evidence with the world on the killing of that journalist. Now, if that is the case, what's the weight and what's the president doing to respond?
After this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS, I-VT.: He's not such a tough guy when he has to deal with this billionaire friends in Saudi Arabia...
(BOOING)
SANDERS: ... who just tortured and murdered a courageous journalist.
Not such a tough guy on that one.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CAVUTO: All right, that's Bernie Sanders, of course, in Bloomington, Indiana, today. He's taking a swipe at the president over this entire Saudi crisis.
We're awaiting word on what response the administration is going to have, earlier on promising that there would be severe consequences for the Saudis. He went on to say that it does indeed look like Jamal Khashoggi, the journalist in question from The Washington Post, is in fact dead.
So the question is, what do we do about that?
John Roberts, how all of this is playing on at the White House -- John.
JOHN ROBERTS, FOX NEWS CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Remains to be seen what we do about it.
And, Neil, we just heard from the president for about 15 minutes as he was signing a bill that preserves water in the Western part of the United States, the president saying that it's too early to tell what the United States might do, that we have yet to get fully to the bottom of this investigation to find out the who, what, why, when and where of it, as the president put it.
But he did say that he is troubled by what he hears. Listen here.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Something that we don't like. It's very serious stuff. And we're going to get to the bottom of it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Now, in terms of what the White House might do, the president said he would have his recommendations.
But as he did in the Kavanaugh case, where he left it up to Congress to determine the way forward, he said he would do that in this case as well. Listen here.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: We will very much listen to what Congress has to say. They feel very strongly about it also. So I'll be doing this with Congress.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Now, President Trump didn't have much to say about the investigation itself. But there has been some interesting movement.
There are reports that, at the very beginning, King Salman Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia didn't know much about this, but then when he learned more about it, he became increasingly troubled that this would reflect very badly on Saudi Arabia.
And so he dispatched one of his closest advisers, Prince Khalid al-Faisal, who is the governor of Mecca, one of the most important holy sites in all of the Muslim world, to Turkey to negotiate with the Turks about the way forward in the investigation.
It kind of sidelines Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince, a little bit. I think dad stepped in here and said, thanks, son, I'm going to handle this.
Also a development here at the White House. Steve Mnuchin yesterday said that he is going to cancel his appearance at the so-called Davos in the Desert investment summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, next week. However, Mnuchin still will be going to a national security financing conference that will take place in Riyadh.
The United States has had a long strategic relationship with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is on the forefront of the fight against terror. It's also crucial in trying to rein in Iran. So, Steve Mnuchin will still be going to that security conference.
But, Neil, folks here at the White House say going to a security conference that is all about financing to combat terrorism and rein in Iran is a lot different than going to a showcase investment conference, which is what that Davos in the Desert conference is all about -- Neil.
CAVUTO: That's exactly what it is.
John Roberts, thank you very, very much.
ROBERTS: You bet.
CAVUTO: Meanwhile, the search for that missing journalist now is extending to a forest way outside of Istanbul.
Benjamin Hall in Istanbul with the very latest -- Benjamin.
BENJAMIN HALL, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Yes, hi, Neil.
Well, it's been 17 days since Khashoggi went missing. And now we're hearing from the foreign minister here in Turkey that it's not going to be long now until we get the details and the final results in their investigation.
They're saying that they just need to wait for a few more lab tests to come through. But, as you said, sadly, the search seems to have moved on now to Khashoggi's body. And they are stretching outside of Istanbul itself to see if they can find where that may have been placed.
Now Turkish police searching a nearby forest which officials claim his body may have been disposed of. It's called Belgrad, and it's just north of Istanbul. They're also looking for farmland near the city of Yalova, where one of the suspects had a house.
Now, two of the vehicles allegedly traveled from the consulate on October the 2nd. According to their GPS, they moved to those parts of the country.
Now, at this moment, though, most of the crucial evidence still hinges on those infamous audiotapes which Turkish authorities claim to have of Khashoggi's murder. But despite repeated calls to release them, they haven't yet done so.
Yesterday, however, ABC News claimed that Secretary of State Pompeo had been given access to the gruesome recording, something he very quickly and strongly denied, saying -- quote -- "I have heard no tape. I have seen no transcript."
And indeed he went on to say -- quote -- "This is wrong to do to the fiancee of Khashoggi. This is a very serious matter that we're working on diligently. And so to put out headlines that are factually false does no one any good."
Now, as far as the Saudi side of the investigation goes, well, there are a number of efforts to claim that some of the suspects were not even in Turkey at the time of the Khashoggi's disappearance, though the fact is, many people believe that perhaps the Saudi investigation will not be neutral.
At the same time, people pointing out that Turkey has an important role here and that it suits them to drive a wedge between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. And the way they have leaked information slowly over two weeks also raised some eyebrows.
But we are hearing the Saudi investigation might be released Sunday or Monday, the Turkish one also very soon. So, we hope to be getting more answers in the coming days -- Neil.
CAVUTO: Benjamin Hall in Istanbul, thank you, my friend.
All right, with us now is former U.S. Army helicopter pilot Amber Smith. She joins us out of Richmond, Virginia.
Amber, I mean, looking at defense stocks that came back today, oil that was relatively stable through all of this, if I were to read just the markets' impression of this, it's that it's going to be a muted response, that whatever happens, it will not jeopardize our relations.
Whatever people think about politically, from a financial standpoint, that's just the way it's going to be. What do you think?
AMBER SMITH, FORMER U.S. ARMY HELICOPTER PILOT: I hope that is the case. But there is some risk involved here.
And that is the U.S.-Saudi strategic alliance. And it will survive this, which is why I feel like there won't be that much issue within the markets long term, but not just for economic and oil and military sales issues, but really for overall the stability that Saudi Arabia provides in one of the most volatile regions in the entire world.
And there's no one else -- I can't emphasize enough how Iran would benefit from any sort of severed or even strained relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia. We would really see a power scale tip in favor of Iran. And we just cannot do that.
CAVUTO: Amber, I'm wondering what you make -- I know it's a different case, but last night when the president was in Montana, he actually heaped praise Congressman Greg Gianforte, the man who assaulted a journalist, and commanded the body slam.
His timing wasn't exactly good, to be reminding folks of this in the middle of the whole Khashoggi thing. What did you think of that?
SMITH: The timing wasn't great. And in this country, we value the freedom of the press. We value journalists. And we know just how dangerous their job is. They put themselves in harm's way every day to report on some serious, dangerous stories.
CAVUTO: Do you think the president believes that, though?
SMITH: I think the president does. I think that, in these rallies, he is on the camp -- on the campaign trail. He tries to energize the crowd. And, unfortunately, he said something that was super bad timing with everything that we're seeing out of the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul.
But I do think that the president respects the First Amendment and the freedom of the press, and it just was worded poorly, in my opinion.
CAVUTO: Maybe so, but he did go out of his way to talk about and condensing this particular congressman, who was penalized for this move on Ben Jacobs, the Guardian reporter.
Leaving that out of it, though, I do wonder, because a lot of people have looked at this and what punishment the president might want to meet out of the Saudis, besides our financial relationship, that it doesn't bother him that much. What do you think of that?
SMITH: Well, I think that what the president wants to do is, he wants to ensure that the very important strategic alliance with Saudi Arabia remains.
And so, like he said, he does want to wait and see what the outcome of the investigations are. I do think we're going to see two extremely different outcomes of the investigations from the Saudis and from Turkey.
But he does want to wait and see what actually comes out of it, and then, before making any decisions, have all the information and the facts, so they can make educated decisions, move forward as a whole with Congress in terms of what to do with Saudi Arabia.
CAVUTO: What would happen, Amber, your thoughts, if the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, remains, his father doesn't heave him out of there, the king, of course, King Salman?
Now, there are 12 other brothers, I guess. He could look to any one of them to rule the kingdom. But that looks unlikely.
So what would the fallout be of just that?
SMITH: Well, I think that what we're going to see out of any sort of Saudi information that we come out is anyone within the royal kingdom being cleared of all wrongdoing with this issue.
I think we're going to see them blame sort of some rogue Saudis who went up on their own. We have already seen reports that they may be looking to pinpoint this on one of their intelligence chiefs. And so that's what I think that we're going to see it pinned on, is an individual or a few people who did some wrongdoing on their own, so they can move forward, with MBS eventually moving into power.
CAVUTO: All right, you're talking about Mohammed bin Salman.
Real quickly as well, we're told that the Saudis have been looking at expanding oil shipments to China, that China make up for the slack that we provide.
What do you make of that?
SMITH: Well, absolutely.
That's the reason you -- when the United States leaves or that relationship changes with Saudi Arabia, they're -- Russia is looking to step in. You have got China looking to step in, and even with some of the arms sales.
When we're not filling those sort of relationship duties with Saudi Arabia, we're going to see the other superpowers in the world stepping in to do so.
CAVUTO: All right, Amber Smith, thank you so much, a former U.S. Army helicopter pilot, so much more, served this country very honorably and bravely.
All right, where were you 31 years ago today? I know where I was, covering what was at the time one of the worst market drops we had ever seen. In fact, you would have to go back to 1929. It was a scary time.
And I'm not just talking about my hair.
(LAUGHTER)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CAVUTO: Thirty-one years ago today, it was the crash that some news media said would bring on a depression, we would never recover from for years. We did within four months.
It's a timely lesson we need to know now. Stocks not only go up and down. They ultimately stay up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, OCTOBER 19, 1987)
CAVUTO: Well, there weren't exactly flinging themselves off buildings, at least not that we could see today.
But there were a near record number of people gathering outside the New York Stock Exchange today to sort of witness history in the making and the opportunity to see incredible drops in the Dow right before their eyes.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CAVUTO: I have told my crew not a word, not a word.
(LAUGHTER)
CAVUTO: I think my toupee today, again, is much better. Look at that. What the heck? They do this mercilessly to remind me, you know, you have aged, Neil.
All right, that was 31 years ago today. I remember it very, very well. And I remember as well the press coverage at the time, when the Dow lost about a quarter of its value, that it would be a while before we'd come back.
And through one crisis after another -- and we're going to get into that in a second -- somehow, we always do come back. That's not to say that I didn't want to mislead people to think that stocks always stay up. But they go up and they go down, but invariably over time they're a good bet.
Now the read on all of that with Susan Li and what we have learned -- Susan.
SUSAN LI, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: For the record, I thought you looked great, Neil.
So, yes, as they say, from the ashes of destruction grows opportunity and wealth. So let's put Black Monday into historical context. Yes, it was the single worst day for the stock market. Pretty stunning when it loses 22 percent, a quarter of its value, in one single trading session.
But the second worst day was going into the Great Depression of 1929, when the stock market lost about 12 percent.
Now, what about recent memory and the global financial crisis? Not even close. We were down maybe 7.9 percent on October 15, 2008. But take a look at the points losses. We have grown so big for the stock markets and grown so used to this volatility. We saw an 800-point drop last week.
So, yes, none of these points drops really compares. But, as you said, what grows and grows and grows is the stock market. Let's take a look at what's happened since 1987, a 1000 percent gains for the Dow, the S&P and even the Nasdaq.
And, really, it's been the tech names that have driven the longest bull market run that we're currently in. What about those blue-chip stocks that we trade a lot of those, that have been listed for a long time, and even before 1987?
So let's take a look at Wal-Mart. We will take a look at Apple. And I will even throw in Home Depot. Some distortion effects here, since Home Depot split 13 times since it listed, and also same thing for Apple as well, four times since it became a public company.
Wal-Mart has never split. So there might be a distortion effect. But, as you see, with stocks, you probably get better odds than you do with the Mega Millions -- back to you.
CAVUTO: That is true.
LI: Yes.
CAVUTO: You know, you weren't even born at the time, young lady.
LI: Oh, I remember.
CAVUTO: All right. Oh, stop it.
(LAUGHTER)
CAVUTO: All right, Susan, you're the best. Thank you very much.
These kids today.
All right, this guy might have been around back then, but he was also a calming force, the former CKE Restaurants CEO Andy Puzder.
Andy, good to see you.
ANDREW PUZDER, FORMER PRESIDENT & CEO, CKE RESTAURANTS: Good to be here, Neil. Thanks.
CAVUTO: You know, it's interesting, because we want to -- another chart I thought was kind of riveting, to me at least, it's from the '87 period, looking at the growth in the markets through the Asian financial crisis, the Russian ruble crisis, certainly the financial crisis meltdown, 9/11 tucked in between.
Big gyrations in those moments. I'm not minimizing them. But look at that, up, up, up through that.
So what does that tell you?
PUZDER: Well, as long as the underlying economy is strong -- and it is strong today -- you will see -- I think you will see, over time, stocks keep going up.
And, really, these dips that happen, you know, if there's a dip because of Saudi Arabia or one of the historical events that you mentioned, that's a buy -- that's that's an opportunity to buy.
And I think people realize that. I think the bigger threat right now would be interest rates. I know people -- I'm holding back some cash, because I think interest rates are going to go up.
CAVUTO: Really?
PUZDER: I would invest that cash in stocks maybe two, three years ago. But with interest rates going up, I'm going to wait a little bit, see where they go and see whether that's a better investment.
But the economy is strong. The market is strong. Could you imagine? We have had six interest rate increases since President Trump took office. We will have a seventh in December. Could you imagine if, during the Obama era, we had six interest rate increases? The market would have tanked. It would have been a really huge problem.
But I think the economy is so strong, the market is still 40 percent up, even with the recent dips. We have got great underlying fundamentals. And I think that, if it dips, it's a good time to buy.
CAVUTO: It also produces a lot of panic, though, right?
In the middle of that -- I can remember, in the '87 experience, a lot of people telling me, I'm getting out. I'm getting out. I can't deal with this. It's crazy, crazy.
But if you had just waited it out -- time, perspective is everything. The younger you are, the more time you can wait. If you're retiring the next year, whatever, it's scary.
What do you tell folks when it comes to market gyrations?
PUZDER: I'll tell you.
One thing back in 1987, I was 37. I was a young lawyer at the time. But a lot of...
CAVUTO: I wasn't even born. It's just a hologram they were doing there.
(LAUGHTER)
PUZDER: My hair looked a lot more like yours than it does today. I'll tell you that.
(LAUGHTER)
PUZDER: But the people that were -- that were affected by that and that panicked at that time were people whose parents had lived through the Great Depression.
CAVUTO: That's right.
PUZDER: And probably had been around in 1928.
CAVUTO: That's exactly right.
PUZDER: So it was -- that was more of a realistic -- a realistic thing to them than maybe it is to us today.
Today, when the stock market goes down, whether it's my kids that call or friends that call, I tell them, look, if it's down, you have got a stock that you like, you got a shock you think is going to perform well over time, now's the time to buy it.
Look, I'm -- when it goes down, I have been looking at Amazon. I think Amazon is a great company to own. And if it dips, I will be in there.
CAVUTO: But there are some safe places to go. Of course, you can -- CKE Restaurants. The same people always have to eat in good and bad markets alike.
PUZDER: Absolutely.
CAVUTO: There are safe areas to invest.
Are you worried that a market that has run up so far so fast could just, by natural order of things, correct?
PUZDER: I -- there could be a correction. Again, I think, if there is, it would be a time to buy, not a time to panic.
And I -- but I do think the bigger threat is that interest rates will pull money out. Money that would -- that would have created demand for stocks will no longer be creating the demand. I think that's -- that's a bigger concern. It should be a concern of the Fed's. It's certainly a concern of the president's.
And I think it's a realistic concern.
CAVUTO: Andy Puzder, thank you, my friend, very, very much.
PUZDER: My pleasure.
CAVUTO: Want to get a read from NYSE trader Peter Tuchman. He was there, by the way, in 1987, at the time then.
Very good to have you, Peter.
You're a very familiar face to people. You were probably the most photographed face on the floor the New York Stock Exchange, right?
PETER TUCHMAN, QUATTRO M. SECURITIES: Yes, I am.
CAVUTO: Whether it's up or down, you always pop up. I see that.
So, this market, this, day looking back 31 years ago, any lessons from that?
TUCHMAN: You know what?
I think it's a totally different marketplace, per se. We obviously have the technology now that's a bit different. I think what happened that day was sort of caused by some new measures at the time that were put on to protect the market against volatility and stuff like that.
But back then -- right now, we have seen some sell-offs for similar reasons over the last couple of weeks, a spike in the yield and whatnot, but they're very smooth and orderly sell-offs.
We were down 1,300 points over two days last week. And it was completely orderly.
CAVUTO: That's right.
TUCHMAN: Back in the day, I was a clerk account at Cowen at the time in '87. And there was sheer panic on the floor at the time.
And I remember having stacks of orders. You would go into the stock. Basically, they would put the buyers on one side, sellers on the other. We'd add up how many shares there were to sell, and they would print stock down $2 or $3 in a clip. And it kept happening over and over and over, over a number of hours.
So if you look at that Quattro, it's a wonderful photo of the end of the day. You will see things like Digital Equipment down $46, and Procter down $17.
We have not seen anything like that since. We're talking, percentage-wise, it was by far the biggest one. So, for us, today, as the gentleman just spoke to you and said, today, if we do have a bit of a correction, if you want to call last week a small correction, these are more buying opportunities than, by any means, panic mode.
CAVUTO: So what happened last week, some of the gyrating days this week, even today, it's not like that?
TUCHMAN: Sir, not -- not by any stretch.
Literally, stocks were trading down three, four, five points at a clip, millions of shares trading in big prints. And it was sheer and utter panic. Firms went out of business. Stocks literally -- it was really kind of like a stock market movie in a way, because there was just fury, there was panic, there was anxiety, screaming and yelling.
CAVUTO: Yes.
TUCHMAN: It was a completely different place.
CAVUTO: All right, Peter, great talking with you. Thank you again.
TUCHMAN: Always a pleasure, Neil.
CAVUTO: All right, Peter Tuchman.
You know, another thing that was good about the '87 crash at the time is, it didn't occur in an election year. Technically, the gyrating market this year is, albeit it in a midterm election year, and certainly nothing like that.
Does that make a difference?
After this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CAVUTO: President Trump will be in Arizona today. He's going to be campaigning for the midterms. He's been busy. Barack Obama, Vice President Biden also hitting the road and the campaign for the midterms.
A scenario here for the GOP, though, to still hang on to the House? It might seem impossible to the consensus.
But former Deputy White House chief of staff, bestselling author Karl Rove is with us right now.
Do we have problems with Karl right now, guys?
Oh, Karl. I'm sorry. I thought we had a connection problem with you.
Karl, what do you think of the odds here of the Republicans actually hanging on?
KARL ROVE, FORMER SENIOR ADVISER TO PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: Well, a lot of observers are coming to believe that the so-called blue wave is not going to be as big and as blue as it was thought.
For example, David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report now suggests that the Democrats are likely to win between 25 and 35 seats, and gives the Republicans a 30 percent chance of holding on to the House.
I think it might be slightly better than that. It's an uphill fight. But the way to look at this is, let's take The Cook Political Report's numbers. They have 208 seats that are either lean, likely or solid Democrat, and 196 seats for Republicans that are lean, likely or solid Republican, which means this is going to come down to 31 tossup seats.
One of them is a Democrat-held seat, 29 are Republicans. So the Democrats would have to take a third of those seats, and the Republicans would have to take better than two-thirds in order to maintain control of the House.
So you can see the Democrats got an advantage, easier to get there, but not a lock. And recent news has indicated that some of those seats that are considered tossup might be actually in better shape for Republicans then had been thought earlier in October or in September.
CAVUTO: Yes, and I was hearing about a lot of those races, not all 29, but a good many of them, it's within four or five points. So they're very, very close.
Let's -- let's hypothesize beyond this, Karl, then that the Republicans hang on to the House. They might lose some seats, but they hang on to the House. They hang on or actually improve their numbers, as you have raised in the past, in the Senate. That is not something that's generally expected. What do you think?
ROVE: Well, the parties have to -- have held on to the House, control the House in the first midterm after they elect a president, but they generally -- they almost always lose seats.
CAVUTO: Right.
ROVE: The question is, how many do they lose? Only in 2002, 1998 and 1934 has the White House party, the party and power, failed to lose seats.
So the question is how many. The Democrats need to pick up 23. And I think this is going to be settled by a relatively small number of votes in a relatively large number of seats. That is to say, on election night, we may not even know on election night. There are going to be four or five seats in California that could literally determine who controls the Senate -- or -- excuse me -- who controls the House.
And they may not be settled for several days. But, again, the news recently has been for Republicans pretty good. Let me give you a couple examples.
North Carolina 13, Ted Budd; Ohio 1, Steve Chabot; Ohio 12, Troy Balderson; New Jersey 3 with Tom MacArthur; Virginia 2, Scott Taylor; Florida 25 with Carlos Curbelo, all of these are tossup seats that have recently seen public or private polling suggesting that the Republican is now in the lead and maybe in some instances pulling away.
Same thing happening in open seats. In fact, the Democrats have pulled out of Minnesota 8 because Pete Stauber, the Republican candidate, is running so strongly there.
CAVUTO: When you look at what could be some of the late-breaking issues that might influence this race, the caravan comes to mind right now, the secretary of state just moments ago speaking with reporters in Mexico City, meeting with the powers that be in Mexico to try to get the Mexicans to get a handle on this.
But is that a potential issue? Saudi Arabia a potential issue? What is really galvanizing folks in the last few days, weeks?
ROVE: Yes, look, health care and the economy are driving the big issue. And for Democrats and for independents, the question is, how strongly do you feel about having a check and balance on President Trump?
But, yes, look, in the final stages of a campaign, when you have so many races that are so close, people's reaction to the administration's handling of, say, the crisis with Mexico or handling of the problem with the death of an American green card holder in a Turkish Consulate, it looks like, at the hands of a Saudi hit squad, all of these things have an impact.
The stronger the president looks, the more he looks presidential, the more he looks like he is solving problems and stopping bad things from happening and encouraging good things to go forward, the better off for his party, because, again, we're going to get down to a relatively small number of votes.
My suspicion is the caravan coming up from Guatemala has got the potential to be a plus for the Republicans if handled right by the administration. But if we have a lot of parents and children being separated at the borders, that could -- that could kindle some feelings among independents that we saw earlier in the year that wouldn't be helpful.
CAVUTO: All right, Karl Rove, thank you very, very much.
ROVE: You bet. Thank you.
CAVUTO: All right, what the Mexicans have apparently promised the secretary of state they will do to avoid a repeat of that -- after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CAVUTO: All right, we are confident this go-round, at least hearing from the secretary state, that the Mexican government is working on a plan to deal with this caravan and help us out on this if it gets to the U.S.- Mexican border, as it seems to be.
Asymmetrica president Vanessa Neumann on that.
It's open-ended. We have got a switch in governments happening. In December, the new president takes over, a far more left-leaning government. What can we anticipate from the Mexicans, Vanessa?
VANESSA NEUMANN, PRESIDENT, ASYMMETRICA: Well, AMLO is -- he did market himself in the campaign as being very, very leftist, wants to -- he wants to allow certain drug use, legalize certain drugs, because his country is racked by violence from the drug cartels.
What is interesting, however, is he has proven himself to be much more of a pragmatist and not as anti-Trump as he sort of messaged during the campaign.
After all, he made the new trade deal with the U.S. before the U.S. made it with the Canadians. So that shows his pragmatism. And by -- also, by offering to give it to the U.N., it also gives President Trump a very convenient sort of out, because if it goes horribly wrong, you can sort of blame the U.N.
And neither country really has to take the fallout for that. So it's a very practical decision. And that's what we can expect from AMLO when he's sworn in on December 1.
CAVUTO: Vanessa, do we know where most of these caravan participants are from? I mean, or is it a lot of countries, or what?
NEUMANN: Well, now the predominance of immigrants into the U.S. aren't Mexicans. They are what they call OTS, which is other than Mexicans, which is Hondurans, Guatemalans, Salvadorans. And don't be surprised if we start seeing more Nicaraguans because of the violence down there.
But those countries in general, the smaller countries, are referred to as the Northern Triangle. And they tend to be very weak, very corrupt, very weak in governance, because they have been awash with the drug cartels.
The U.S. and the U.S. military has provided a lot of security cooperation and a lot of money in various (INAUDIBLE) and various other programs to strengthen their governance to stem the migrant flow.
The problem is that what we're seeing is that this is a drug cartel business as well. So, even though the situation is improving in those countries, thanks to U.S. investment, you still have the drug cartels encouraging people to come to the U.S., because, for them, it's money. It's business.
CAVUTO: So, like, it's pretty coordinated?
NEUMANN: Well, exactly.
I mean, the drug cartels are highly coordinated. They're very effective. And while -- so, while their main business is -- arguably, actually, it's -- I was going to say their main business is drugs, but really there's a lot of -- a lot of studies, their main business is actually people smuggling now, because you try and get them across.
You make more money off people. And if they fail, they keep trying again, so you can keep billing the same family over and over again. So they cause the problem at the home country, at the point of origin, which is the Northern Triangle, where they do have violence and gangs and drug traffickers.
CAVUTO: All right.
NEUMANN: And then they should of whisper in the ear of people and say, we will take you to the U.S. Just pay us.
CAVUTO: Amazing.
Vanessa, thank you so much.
NEUMANN: Thank you.
CAVUTO: The fallout from that after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CAVUTO: All right, we could have breaking news tomorrow on that big old lottery, the caravan, much more on Saudi Arabia.
Good thing we're live from 10:00 to 12:00 with "Cavuto Live" with Democratic Senator Ben Cardin, Democratic Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, Republican Senator John Kennedy, all at the same time you're getting a sense of the race that's heating up and the issues that could decide it.
We will see you then.
"The Five" is now.
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