Flying mud and presidential politics. That is the subject of this evening's "Talking Points Memo."

The latest poll has Barack Obama defeating Hillary Clinton by 15 points in South Carolina. And "Talking Points" believes Mr. Obama will win that state on Saturday night.

In Florida, it's very close. McCain, Giuliani and Romney all have a chance to win, according to the latest polling. Governor Huckabee seems to be falling back.

Now we don't know who will win next Tuesday's Florida race. The following Tuesday is the deadly 22-state exposition, where Clinton and Obama will get exactly what is coming to them, whatever that may be.

Right now, Senator Clinton remains ahead nationally, but only by eight points. Obama seems to be closing. So there is tension in the air for both parties, but more so for the Democrats. There are now tough ads running in South Carolina.


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hillary Clinton. She'll say anything and change nothing. It's time to turn the page. Paid for by Obama for America.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Listen to Barack Obama last week talking about Republicans.

BARACK OBAMA: The Republicans were the party of ideas for a pretty long chunk of time there over the last 10, 15 years.



Well that ad has just been pulled, by the way. But even more than paid advertising is the ascending bitterness between the Clinton and Obama camps. Yesterday, Bill Clinton got teed off when asked about the personal nature of the campaign, including the race factor.


BILL CLINTON: You're asking me about this? You sat there, and not one single solitary soul asked about any of this. And they never do. They're feeding you this because they know this is what you want to cover. This is what you live for, but this hurts the people of South Carolina, because the people of South Carolina are coming to these meetings and asking questions about what they care about. And what they care about is not going to be in the news coverage tonight because you don't care about it.


President Clinton obviously angry about race questions, but his wife accuses Obama of working for an inner-city slumlord. So what does Mr. Clinton expect? Come on.

"Talking Points" believes the race issue is bogus, but that the bitter tone of the campaign is to be expected. Both senators want to be the most powerful person in the world, and that job comes at a price.

So 12 days from now, the winners and losers will be much more sharply defined. Until then, we believe the nastiness will continue.

And that's "The Memo."

Pinheads & Patriots

Two big moguls recently chatted about a "Factor" report. General Electric CEO Jeffrey Immelt sat down with ex-Disney boss Michael Eisner and addressed our story that GE does business with Iran.


MICHAEL EISNER, EX-CEO, DISNEY: Iran wants GE technology, and the U.S. government doesn't want American companies to deal...

JEFFREY IMMELT, CEO, GENERAL ELECTRIC: Once like that, Michael, we stopped taking orders in a place like Iran in 2005. Most of our customers in Iran were European companies, you know, European oil companies, things like that. So we just didn't just go cold turkey, you know. We finished the projects we started, but we took no new orders.


But of course GE continues to do business with the Iranian government. So Eisner is a patriot for even asking the question, even though the whole thing may have been rehearsed. As for Immelt, you make the call.

You can catch Bill O'Reilly's "Talking Points Memo" and "Pinheads and Patriots" weeknights at 8 and 11 p.m. ET on the FOX News Channel and any time on foxnews.com/oreilly. Send your comments to: oreilly@foxnews.com