Lights. Camera. Oscar?

From the Fearless Prediction Department: I hereby predict that Michael Moore (search) will sweep the Oscars with "Fahrenheit 9/11."

Now, I don't predict that because Moore swept the People's Choice Awards (search) — already there are indications that Moore-o-philes might have packed the Internet ballot boxes, so that result is meaningless.

And, I don't say it because the movie is good. I have no idea. I haven't seen it and don't intend to. One thing that I know for certain about that movie is that it's not a documentary. It can't be considering the statements of the moviemaker. At best, it's propaganda. At worst it's just a long press release from yet another re-defeat Bush organization.

I think Moore will sweep the Oscars because ... well, because Hollywood has to get back at the red states for their embarrassing Election Day defeat.

Remember, Hollywood and Europe had talked themselves into believing that their superior intelligence — and more nuanced world view — had swung the election in favor of Mr. Kerry. When it didn't work out that way, the silence from Hollywood was deafening. Especially so because they couldn't complain that this election had been stolen, or that Bush had been "selected" by the Supreme Court instead of "elected" by the nation.

Instead, it was a resounding defeat of everything Hollywood had put out there, including Micheal Moore's movie. This is, after all, the only business in the world where making a bucket of money isn't enough. Even turkey movies make money, so the fact Moore took home a hundred million bucks was ultimately meaningless. He didn't convince the country, which is what he set out to do. So he was embarrassed, humiliated and brought down.

You haven't heard much out of those people since the election. They drove their $100,000 cars though their electrified gates and sat in their media rooms watching their own movies over and over — "Rerun those credits again, honey" — and they plotted their revenge.

And here it comes: The Oscars. The red carpet, a billion people watching, Billy Crystal's Bush jokes and a sweep for Micheal Moore. The Academy members are filling out their ballots right now, muttering to themselves, "This will show 'em."

They're right. It will show us what we know all along.

That's My Word.

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