Plenty has changed in Florida since the days of dimpled chads and disputed ballots, much of it in President Bush's favor. Brother Jeb easily won re-election as governor in 2002, and the Republican Party has increased its numbers. The economy has shown signs of improvement, with nearly 300,000 new jobs.
But the race is as close as it was four years ago, when a mere 537 votes tipped the state and the presidency to Bush.
Since then, Florida has grown by more than 1 million — Democratic-leaning Hispanics and blacks as well as conservative whites, drawn by the state's warm temperatures and booming suburbs.
"This may be the most dynamic state in all the 50," says Jeb Bush, who hopes to deliver it to his brother Nov. 2.
Two hurricanes have pummeled the state this month, creating enormous opportunity and risk for the president. If the government response is swift, Bush may benefit politically. If Floridians feel neglected, they may punish their governor and the president.
The state's 9.3 million registered voters are a microcosm of America — black, white and brown; immigrants and Southern aristocracy; Panhandle conservatives, Miami-Dade County liberals and a growing number of independents; scores of voters driven by single issues such as Fidel Castro's rule in Cuba, Israel's security and even the disputed outcome of the 2000 presidential election.
They will determine whether Bush or Democrat John Kerry gets Florida 27 electoral votes, one-tenth of the total needed to win the White House. It's the largest prize of the battleground states, with each campaign spending more than $35 million in television commercials since March. Democratic-leaning outside groups have spent at least $8 million in Florida.
By the Numbers:
27 and 25 — number of electoral votes now and 2000.
16.8 — percent of population of Hispanic or Latino origin
537 — vote margin of George Bush's victory in 2000
47 — square miles of Walt Disney World, about twice the size of Manhattan
1,100 — miles of sand beaches in the state
Quotable:
"The eyes of the world are on Florida and it's a lot of pressure. We know even with the base, we have to fight a lot of cynicism," said Carole Shields, a Miami Democrat and former president of People for the American Way. "We don't know which people are going to not come to the polls because they don't believe that their vote is going to be counted. We don't know how much of that factor is going to be there."
"Clearly the Jewish vote will be more favorable to our side this time," said Sid Dinerstein of Palm Beach, a delegate to the Republican convention. "We deserve 90 percent but we'll settle for a third of the vote, and if we get a third, Florida won't be a close election."
"Let's go and vote because it matters," said Mitch Berger a Fort Lauderdale attorney, who is a Democrat. "And if you don't believe it matters, talk to the 900 families that lost their kids in Iraq."
Notable:
Bill Clinton in 1996 and Jimmy Carter in 1976 are the only Democrats who have carried Florida since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
What to Watch on Election Night:
Florida's election system is under heavy scrutiny after the problems of 2000. Fifteen of the state's largest counties are using touchscreen technology, which seemed to work smoothly during the Aug. 31 primary.
A key battleground area is the Interstate 4 corridor from Tampa Bay on the Gulf of Mexico through Orlando to the Atlantic Coast city of Daytona Beach. The influx of Puerto Ricans and other non-Cuban Hispanics in central Florida is good news for Democrats. They largely supported Al Gore in 2000 and could offset the Cuban-American vote for President Bush in South Florida.
Florida has the nation's largest concentration of elderly voters.
Keep an eye on the high-profile U.S. Senate campaign. Betty Castor, former education commissioner and University of South Florida president, hopes to keep the seat in Democratic hands. She faces former U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez, an immigrant from Cuba who will probably swell that part of the voting population.
In Florida Four Years Ago:
Who could forget?
After 36 days of wrangling, recounts and legal challenges, the U.S. Supreme Court declared Republican George W. Bush the winner over Democrat Al Gore by a margin of 537 votes out of more than 6 million cast.
The governor was, and is, Bush's younger brother, Jeb.
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