So I'm at this Wall Street event, and all of these big muckety-mucks are yapping about the market. Quite a few bears, I might add. Quite a few. And they're all sounding positively brilliant.
"We just don't see any constructive signs out there," says one.
Another chimes in, "even at these depressed levels, we are at over-valued levels."
Still another, "between war fears, terror fears and accountability fears, sit tight."
To a man, and one woman, they also sounded arrogant. As if they were all Nostradamuses who saw all this coming. Like broken clocks, they are celebrating the one of two times of the day they are right and they are making hay.
These are the "perma-bears." They've never liked much, bought much, or to me, at least, said much of value. And now, given market conditions, they are feeling brilliant. They are not.
Where were you, I asked, when the market was soaring? Bearish then. Bearish now. Sure, you've kept your clients out of stocks when things got bad, but where were you when things were going good? I'll tell you where — nowhere.
Eventually a prediction comes true.
I used to follow Jean Dixon, the astrologer, as a kid. She'd make some cockamamie prediction that something big was going to occupy the president's attention. Then lo and behold, Watergate. She said she saw it all coming, but I demand a bit more of my Nostradamases.
That's why I was taken aback by one bull at this conference.
Since this was an off-the-record event, I can't give you his name, suffice it to say he sheepishly grabbed the microphone, and said, "I got you into tech stocks, but I never got you out." He was straightforward, self-effacing, and very revealing. And he was nice.
I know, nice guys don't necessarily make you money. But neither do arrogant guys guarantee you'll keep it.
Give me an honest guy, one who shifts when he has to and doesn't when he doesn't have to and has the guts to say when he screwed up.
There are a lot of people going around, saying they saw all of this coming. Crepe hangers who love to hang crepe.
Well, that crepe's crap. And anyone who says otherwise is just bull.
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