Can Democrats Win 15 Seats and Control?

This is a partial transcript from "The Beltway Boys," on November 4, 2006, that has been edited for clarity.

FRED BARNES, CO-HOST: Welcome back to a special edition of "The Beltway Boys." Let’s take a look at the battle for the House. As it stands now, the Democrats need 15 seats to take over. Here’s the current balance of power, as we’ll have a pretty good idea which way the wind is blowing fairly early Tuesday night. We’ll get our first inklings at 7:00 Eastern, when the polls close in Indiana. Three Republican incumbents are in tight races there—Chris Chocola, Mike Sodrel and John Hostettler. The race to watch here, Mike Sodrel’s race in the 9th District against former Democratic Congressman Baron Hill, who is the guy he beat a couple of years ago.

MORT KONDRACKE, CO-HOST: Right. Well, this would be, the Sodrel race would decide all these three, because the Hostettler, Hostettler is supposed to lose, Chocola is behind and right now the Democrats say that Hill is up by four.

BARNES: You know, they said that about all the races, though. You know what I’d like to...

KONDRACKE: No they don’t. No they don’t.

BARNES: You know—oh, really...

KONDRACKE: They really don’t.

BARNES: Oh, they do.

KONDRACKE: The Democrats I talk to don’t say that.

BARNES: OK. Anyway, Sodrel is not an ingrate. That’s what I like about him. He had Bush came in 2004 and helped him. He had Bush back this year, and when Bush was not quite as much help. All right, also closing at 7:00, Georgia. Republicans have a chance to knock off two Democratic incumbents here, Jim Marshall and John Barrow. The race to watch—Barrow versus former Republican Congressman Max Burns.

KONDRACKE: This is a Kerry district in 2004 and it’s 42 percent African-American.

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: So I think Barrow is going to—has a better chance.

BARNES: It was a Kerry district. They took Athens out of it, you know, the liberal college town.

KONDRACKE: Yes, still—it’s still a Kerry district.

BARNES: Yes, though I’d—Burns has a pretty good chance because Barrow has not bonded with the black vote there. At 7:30 Eastern all eyes will be on Ohio. The races to watch here are the open seat in Bob Ney’s district. State Senator Joy Padgett is the Republican running there. And three other Republican seats held by Steve Chabot, Jean Schmidt and Deborah Pryce. Pryce is the number four Republican in Congress. Now, the race to watch here is Steve Chabot’s in the 1st District. That’s Cincinnati. The Democratic challenger is John Cranley.

KONDRACKE: Yes, well, Cranley is a city councilman in Cincinnati, well known in the district. And, as we said before in the DeWine race, the political environment is just terrible for Republicans. So, you know, the Democrats really think they have a shot at the Chabot seat, for sure.

BARNES: Yes, they do. But he’s a tough guy who played football at William & Mary—of course you knew that. And...

KONDRACKE: (UNINTELLIGIBLE)

BARNES: ... if he loses, it’s going to be curtains for Republicans on election night. OK, at 8:00 Eastern there are three key streets to watch— Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida. In Connecticut, there are three Republican incumbents to watch—Rob Simmons, Chris Shays and Nancy Johnson. The race to watch here, Nancy Johnson’s race in the 5th District. Her Democratic challenger is Chris Murphy, who is a pretty good challenger.

KONDRACKE: Yes. Nancy Johnson is not being polite. She’s accusing her opponent of being soft on porn, soft on drug dealers...

BARNES: Right. Yes.

KONDRACKE: ... all kinds of stuff. She’s waging a tough race there.

BARNES: Like a lot of moderates, she’s tough and mean.

KONDRACKE: Yes.

BARNES: And they usually win. In Pennsylvania, four Republicans face tough reelection results, which is putting it mildly. Curt Weldon, Jim Gerlach, Don Sherwood and Mike Fitzpatrick. The race to watch here and keep an eye on is Jim Gerlach’s race against Democrat Lois Murphy...

KONDRACKE: Yes.

BARNES: ... who I think ran against him last time.

KONDRACKE: Yes, exactly. Yes. Gerlach beat Murphy by only 6,500 votes last time. Weldon and Sherwood are gone, and Fitzpatrick, it looks like, will pull it out for the Republicans.

BARNES: Yes, well, Republicans could lose four of those. I think they’ll win—they’ll lose only two. And Gerlach will win anyway. And in Florida, finally, four GOP seats are vulnerable here, open seats vacated by Mark Foley and Katherine Harris. Joe Negron and Vern Buchanan are the Republicans in those districts now. The seats held by Mike Bilirakis and Clay Shaw could be in trouble. The race to watch here, the open seat in Foley’s district, Republican John Negron versus Democrat Tim Mahoney. Of course, to vote for Negron, you actually have to vote for Foley, because his name is still on the ballot. Isn’t that true?

KONDRACKE: Right. But the Republicans are spending $2 million to try to say don’t—forget about Foley, vote—vote for Foley, you get Negron. It might work.

BARNES: Oh, come on.

KONDRACKE: It actually might work.

BARNES: Oh, I...

KONDRACKE: It could work. It really could work.

BARNES: Oh, I’m dubious.

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