10/31/04 FOX Poll: Neck-and-Neck to the End

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The presidential race is dead even among likely voters — 46 percent back both President George W. Bush (search) and Sen. John Kerry (search), a new FOX News poll conducted Friday and Saturday finds. Independent candidate Ralph Nader (search) receives one percent.

The Democratic challenger has a two-point edge among registered voters, receiving 47 percent to Bush’s 45 percent (Nader receives one percent). The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.

In mid-October, Bush held a seven-point lead over Kerry among likely voters overall. Since then, independent voters have shifted from giving an 18-point lead Bush to giving a slim five-point edge to Kerry today.

In addition, Democrats are now backing Kerry at the same level of intensity as Republicans have backed Bush for the past several weeks. Previous surveys showed that Republicans were more likely to support Bush than the Democrats were to back Kerry.

Opinion Dynamics Corporation (search) conducted the national voter poll for FOX News on October 29-30.

“While it has been said too many times to count, this race remains too-close-to-call with the outcome dependent on several key swing states,” comments Opinion Dynamics President John Gorman (search). “With less than two days to go, it is likely that any further last minute events will have little impact. However, it can be said the recent news of a bin Laden tape, while not necessarily hurting the incumbent, has clearly not helped him hold off Sen. Kerry.”

Fewer than one in 10 voters (seven percent) say they may change their mind before Election Day. Fully 91 percent of Bush voters and 93 percent of Kerry voters say they will definitely vote for their man.

• Pdf: Click here for full poll results.