Let's get to Thursday's interesting facts, using DraftKings prices. We'll cover both the day (four games) and night (four games) schedules.
Five Things to Watch:
1. Rain is in the forecast for all four day games - Detroit and Chicago look the most dicey - and the White Sox-O's game at night. Unless you're going to keep a very close eye on the weather, you should probably avoid the day slate.
2. Jake Arrieta ($13,600) is the biggest favorite on the board. Let's hope the rain stays away from Wrigley if you decide to pay up for him.
3. Tanner Roark's four starts, in DK points: 1.8, 23, 4.1, 46.8. Roark's salary is $7,800, and he faces the weak-hitting Phillies.
4. The highest projected total for the day is Pirates-Rockies with 11.5, which makes sense since those teams combined for 13 runs on Monday and 17 on Tuesday. On the night slate, both White Sox-O's and Cardinals-Diamondbacks have projected totals of nine runs.
5. Cardinals SS Aledmys Diaz ($3,600) has 13 hits in his last 22 at bats, and has a 1.323 OPS on the season. He bats eighth, but in a four-game night schedule, how picky do you want to be?
Yesterday's recap: Steven Wright was a great call as D.J. Foster's "Deal of the day," racking up 29.55 DK points. Must-start Adrian Beltre had a hit and an RBI, which wasn't too bad.
Must Start of the day: Matt Carpenter, STL
Rubby De La Rosa can't get lefties out - their career wOBA against him is .377. Carpenter ($4,400) crushes RHP, with a career wOBA of .373 and an .856 OPS against them. Carpenter is also averaging 14.25 DK points over his last four games.
Deal of the day: Brandon Drury, ARI
D-backs 2B/3B Brandon Drury ($2,200) homered on Wednesday, and has three double-digit DK points over his last four games. Make sure he's in the lineup, of course.
Avoid of the day: Adam Jones, BAL
BvP isn't exactly the holy grail of analytics, but Adam Jones is one-for-33 in his career vs. John Danks. Yikes!
Stack of the day: St. Louis Cardinals
As noted above, use the lefthanded hitters against De La Rosa - Carpenter, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Brandon Moss, even Kolten Wong if he plays. To paraphrase my friend Matt Moore, the lefties have a fight at the bat rack over who gets to bat first when Rubby pitches.
For the positional picks, we'll include both day and night selections.
Tanner Roark, WAS: See "5 Things" note above. Using Arrieta makes you focus too much on mediocre hitters, and he's a rainout worry.
Kenta Maeda, LAD: At $10K, Maeda is a -140 favorite over Jose Fernandez and the Marlins. I'd probably avoid him on a larger slate of games, but it's also not worth arguing too much about a guy with a 0.36 ERA in four starts.
Chris Stewart, PIT: This assumes a day off for Francisco Cervelli after three consecutive starts. Stewart isn't much of a hitter, but he's $2,700 at Coors.
Welington Castillo, ARI: At $3,200, Castillo has averaged 17.66 DK points over his last six games.
Ryan Howard, PHI: If you don't want to pay for Rizzo or Miggy, Howard ($3,500) still has some pop in his bat.
Brandon Moss, STL: See "Stack of the day" note above.
Jed Lowrie, OAK: Lowrie has been batting fourth or fifth for the A's, has averaged 7.6 DK points over his last nine games, and goes for just $2,700.
Brandon Drury, ARI: See "Deal of the day" above.
David Freese, PIT: Freese bats third and has averaged 13.25 DK points over his last four games. At $3,900, he's a good deal for a Coors hitter.
Matt Carpenter, STL: See "Must-Start of the Day" above.
Addison Russell, CHC: If you don't want to pay $5K for Trevor Story, Russell ($3,800) has averaged 12.25 DK points in his last four.
Manny Machado, BAL: Machado ($4,600) is hitless in hit last four games, but he's too good a hitter to be this cheap vs. Danks. And as noted above, we won't complain if you use Aledmys Diaz.
Carlos Gonzalez, COL: The Rox are six games into a homestand, and CarGo hasn't homered yet. He's due!
Gerardo Parra, COL: I know, I know ... another Rockie. But Parra is batting leadoff these days, and he's hard to pass up at $4,200.
Jeremy Hazelbaker, STL: See "Stack of the day" note above.