Why Trump is winning - and how he can lose

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CONCORD, N.H. – Spend some time up here, and it's no mystery why businessman Donald Trump finds himself at the top of polls for the Republican nomination in the nation's first primary. But it also becomes apparent that beneath the surface, his candidacy has a soft underbelly — and he could collapse by the time voters go to the polls in February.

Trump's passionate base of support, organizational prowess, skills as a retail politician, craftiness at attacking opponents, and ability to seize control of the media narrative, were all on display on Wednesday morning when he visited the state house to become the first major Republican to formally file candidacy.

Before he arrived, there were already throng of a hundred or so people lining up in place holding Trump campaign signs. Not all of them were necessarily enthusiastic supporters (one man holding a Trump sign told me that he actually was undecided, but was holding the sign as a favor to a friend who is affiliated with the campaign).

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