The White House and Tuesday's Primaries, Watching (Safely) From Air Force One

The White House said today the political fate of two Senate Democrats and a House seat vital to any plausible GOP plan to knock Speaker Nancy Pelosi out of power barely raises a West Wing eyebrow.

"How closely has the president been following the campaigns," a reporter asked Press Secretary Robert Gibbs at today's briefing.

"Not that closely."

Right.

It's not as if Obama has endorsed party-switcher Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania or dispatched his Vice President to campaign for him

Oh wait, he has.

It's not like Obama had his White House team say complimentary things about Blanche Lincoln's bid to have big banks shed derivatives trading despite opposition from his Treasury Secretary and leading outside economic adviser Paul Volcker.

Oh wait, he did.

The White House has done plenty for Specter and Lincoln.

Except have Obama campaign for them down the stretch.

Specter clearly wants an Obama visit. Specter's leading get-out-the-vote voice, Gov. Ed Rendell, said today a last-minute Obama visit would mean at least one percentage point for Specter.

"It might jack up turnout."

Instead Obama will fly over Pennsylvania tomorrow en route for Youngstown, Ohio, and remarks about the economy.

Of course, there's another side to the Obama campaign coin. Last-minute trips did not deliver victories or even a measurable turnout surge in Virginia for gubernatorial nominee Creigh Deeds, New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine or Senate nominee Martha Coakley. But Specter wants Obama.

Specter could very well lose to two-term Democratic congressman Joe Sestak on the grounds that Specter's down-the-line backing of Obama's agenda isn't good enough - that he's still in a Republican in Democrat's clothing. Only one Democratic figure could vaporize that criticism: Obama.

But he won't. The assessment of a top Democratic operative in the nation's capital might explain why.

"We got Specter's vote on the stimulus, on health care and on Justice (Sonya) Sotomayor. I'd say we got our money's worth."

Politics is, after all, a transactional business.

And Beltway Democrats believe Sestak has a better chance of winning statewide against Republican Pat Toomey, if for no other reason he doesn't carry Specter's party-switching past and 30-year Senate resume.

As Gibbs pointed out today, "it's been a tough year for Democrats."

Obama hasn't been to Pennsylvania's 12th District, either, despite its evident importance to Democratic plans of minimizing GOP mid-terms gains. The sprawling western Pennsylvania district is the only one in the country that went from Democrat John Kerry in 2004 to Republican John McCain in 2008 -- this despite Obama winning Pennsylvania by 54.7%, the biggest victory margin there since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

In this special election to fill the seat left vacant by the death of Pennsylvania political powerhouse John Murtha, Republican Tim Burns is giving Democrat Mark Critz fits, despite the a 2-1 Democratic registration edge. The seat hasn't been held by a Republican since 1974 but rank-and-file union dissatisfaction with Obama's agenda could prove decisive for Burns, much as it was for Republican Scott Brown in the Massachusetts election to fill Sen. Edward Kennedy's open seat.

Already, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is pre-emptively trying to devalue a Burns victory, declaring it a "must win" due to massive GOP spending and expenditures from outside pro-GOP groups.

"The NRCC (National Republican Congressional Committee) has spent $958,897 - one tenth of their cash on hand - and nine (9) shady outside groups have spent more than $445,000 to defeat Democrat Mark Critz," the DCCC said in a memo to reporters today. "Republican Committee Chairman Michael Steele guaranteed victory for Republican Tim Burns."

Speaking of the DCCC, Obama raised more than $1 million for it last Thursday in New York City, saying this about the political climate.

"We've gone through a stormy time," Obama said. "And I know sometimes it's made you guys a little seasick -- but right now the waters are calm."

Calm?

In Arkansas, Lincoln's plans for a third term ran into a union-backed assault from the left in the form of Lt. Gov Bill Halter. The betting is Lincoln will win tomorrow, but probably not with the 50 percent she needs to avoid a June 8 runoff - a contest that will further deplete Lincoln's campaign war-chest. Meanwhile, Republican Rep. John Boozman is sure to emerge as the nominee and already leads Lincoln by double digits.

So, at a time when Democrats need to rally their base and unify against Republican, two party incumbents and a long-held House seat hang in the balance -- in part because of intra-party fissures.

"The Obama machine is just as divided as the Democrats are in Pennsylvania, or the Democrats are in Arkansas," said Democratic strategist Steve McMahon. "All those Democrats are Obama Democrats, but half of them it seems are anti-incumbent, anti-establishment, anti-Congress Democrats."

Republicans say it doesn't matter if the political seas are calm or roiling. No matter, they smell blood.

"There needs to be more than teleprompters and eloquence," said Rob Jessmer, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "People want policy and they want the president listening to them. The bottom line is people want a check on his agenda, and that's the problem (the Democrats) have."