Second straight poll points to Warren-Biden battle for NH, with Sanders a distant third

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MANCHESTER, NH – For the second straight week, a poll in the New Hampshire Democratic primary race shows a battle for the top spot between Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and former Vice President Joe Biden.

The new survey, conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center and released Tuesday, also shows Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont – who crushed eventual nominee Hillary Clinton in the 2016 New Hampshire primary – in a distant third place.

Warren, the populist senator who’s pushed out one progressive policy proposal after another, stands at 25 percent in the survey. Biden, the front-runner in most polls of voters nationwide and in early primary and caucus states since before announced his candidacy in late April, is at 24 percent. The margin between Warren and Biden is well within the poll's margin of error of 4.8 percentage points.

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“There remain several months before New Hampshire Democrats cast their primary ballots, but Warren and Biden have clearly separated themselves from the rest of the field,” New Hampshire Institute of Politics executive director Neil Levesque emphasized.

“If the dynamic of Warren as the candidate that best expresses Democratic voters’ policy preferences and Biden as the one who has the best chance of beating Trump sets in with voters, this is likely turning into a two-person race absent a big shake-up,” he added.

Sanders, the populist independent senator, stands at 11 percent in the survey, with South Bend, Ind. Mayor Buttigieg a point back at 10 percent. Sen. Kamala Harris of California registers at 5 percent in the survey to round out the top five.

The poll’s release comes hours after Sanders reported raising a whopping $25.3 million during the July-September third quarter of fundraising, with Buttigieg hauling in $19.1 million and Harris bringing in $11.6 million.

SANDERS HAULS IN AN EYE-POPPING $25 MILLION JULY-SEPT. CAMPAIGN CASH HAUL

Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii are each at 3 percent in the survey. Businessman and billionaire environmental and progressive activist Tom Steyer and tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang are each at 2 percent, with Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey at 1 percent. Everyone else sampled came in at less than 1 percent, with 9 percent undecided with just over four months to go until primary day.

Levesque highlighted that “there is still some fluidity in this race, as 65 percent of Warren supporters, 72 percent of Biden supporters, 56 percent of Sanders supporters, and 73 percent of Buttigieg voters indicate that they expect that their choice could change between now and the primary election.”

Among voters who were not firm in their choice of candidate, was the second choice of 26 percent, followed by Biden (12 percent), Buttigieg (11 percent), Sanders and Harris (7 percent each)

Warren also topped the field of candidates on the question of who would make the best president (27 percent, compared to 19 percent who picked Biden). But Biden came out on top when voters were asked who would be the strongest nominee to take on Republican President Donald Trump in next year’s general election (37 percent, compared to 26 percent who picked Warren).

The St. Anselm poll came out a week after a Monmouth University survey in New Hampshire grabbed national attention for indicating that Warren and Biden fighting for the top spot, with Sanders a distant third.

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Previous Granite State polls released earlier in September and in late August were all over the board, with one suggesting Sanders holding a lead; another indicating a three-way tie among Biden, Warren and Sanders; and a third showing Sanders trailing Biden and Warren.

The Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll was conducted Sept. 25-29, with 423 registered voters in New Hampshire who indicated they were likely to vote in the state’s Democratic presidential primary questioned by live telephone operators.