Don and Nancy, at it again
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On the roster: Don and Nancy, at it again - Republican convention plans in flux - Trump takes role as drug pitchman to next level - McSally now trails by 13 in Arizona poll - Well, drunks do act like toddlers
DON AND NANCY, AT IT AGAIN
He calls her “Crazy Nancy.” She calls him “morbidly obese.”
It’s the plotline in the telenovela of Trump-era Washington that we just can’t escape: President Trump and his nemesis, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and their never-ending feud.
Most of the time, we can ignore the theatrics of who stormed out of which meeting or what put-down was leveled on a chat show or social media. It usually doesn’t matter because the leaders of our two major parties simply do not interact. Their bad blood is real but mostly irrelevant.
But, it looks like that’s not going to be the case for at least a while.
Trump is on Capitol Hill today as part of an effort to unite Senate Republicans behind some kind of coronavirus bailout legislation. Trump has talked about cutting the tax that funds Social Security, but has gotten a cool reception within his own party and among economists. Trump has also proposed a massive infrastructure spending package, but that too was coolly received.
The Republican conference seems to agree on a few points: 1) The next step should only come after a gimlet-eyed analysis of the previous bailout and the condition of the economy. 2) Any relief funds for states and municipalities should be fenced off from pre-existing debts. 3) The package should come with corona-related lawsuit limits for businesses and service providers.
Those are positions that would tend to be very popular in most Republican states. Because of America’s political geography, most of the hardest-hit states have been of the blue variety. There is obvious resentment among conservatives in less-affected states for the idea of more massive spending that voters are likely to see as benefiting others far away.
Such Republican reticence may do well for members seeking re-election in red states, but it is very much at odds with Trump’s re-election strategy. Staring down the possibility of an economic malaise lasting well into 2021, the president needs to change the trajectory quickly. Like Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, Trump believes Congress needs to authorize more cash pumping to stave off economic catastrophe.
If you want to find cash pumpers, look no farther than Pelosi’s Democratic caucus. The spending package House Democrats flung at Senate Republicans like a $3 trillion bale of wet hay is a Keynesian dream machine. Sure, it has lots of money for partisan spending priorities, but any demand-side estimation would have to say it would be stimulative.
Of course, Pelosi’s plan is political, not practical. She wants to keep the Senate on defense, as it was in the previous rounds of negotiations that resulted in the trillions already spent.
Because Trump cannot deal with Pelosi, he has designated Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin as his proxy. That effectively cut Senate Republicans out of the deal last time around. Pelosi and her Senate counterpart, Chuck Schumer, haggled directly with the administration, leaving it up to Mitch McConnell and his crew to like it or lump it.
That’s not going to happen again, as has been made obvious by McConnell’s assertive stances during the public pre-negotiations.
It will not benefit Trump to have the House and Senate stuck at stalemate. He needs voters in swing states to see and feel the warming blast of another geyser of cash, and soon. It’s just that the people in Washington most ideologically inclined toward his view happen to be in the other party.
We don’t know how Senate Republicans will react to Trump’s blandishments today, but we do suspect that he, or at least his designees, are going to need Pelosi sooner rather than later. Even if it’s only in a back-channel fashion, Trump needs the House to keep the pressure on Senate Republicans to get stimulative.
If past seasons are any guide, the next episode in the series will be a dramatic one.
THE RULEBOOK: YOU GOT TO GET DOWN TO BE DOWN
“Uniformity in the time of elections seems not less requisite for executing the idea of a regular rotation in the Senate, and for conveniently assembling the legislature at a stated period in each year.” – Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 61
TIME OUT: TOONS IN
WSJ: “Animation has seen a 22% surge in viewership during lockdown, more than any other category, according to Reelgood, a website that analyzes streaming viewer behavior patterns. This is likely because of the huge demand for content for children stuck at home, but it is also possible that the art form … is suitably escapist entertainment right now. The resilience of the medium stands in contrast to the rest of the television and film industry. In March, the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees [said] about 120,000 film-industry workers had lost their jobs because of the shutdown. In April, the Writers Guild of America advised its members to consider pursuing work on animated projects. … Unlike their live-action counterparts, animated series are typically ordered and in the can well in advance of their airdates because of lengthy production times. After industry wide shutdowns in March, a shortage of live-action offerings is likely. For animated programs, it should be business as usual.”
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SCOREBOARD
PRESIDENTIAL POWER RANKINGS
(270 electoral votes needed to win)
Toss-up (103 electoral votes): Wisconsin (10), Ohio (18), Florida (29), Arizona (11), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15)
Lean R/Likely R: (186 electoral votes)
Lean D/Likely D (249 electoral votes)
[Full rankings here.]
TRUMP JOB PERFORMANCE
Average approval: 45.6 percent
Average disapproval: 51.6 percent
Net Score: -6 points
Change from one week ago: ↑ 0.2 points
[Average includes: Gallup: 49% approve - 48% disapprove; CNN: 46% approve - 51% disapprove; CNBC: 46% approve - 54% disapprove; Monmouth University: 44% approve - 51% disapprove; PRRI: 43% approve - 54% disapprove.]
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REPUBLICAN CONVENTION PLANS IN FLUX
AP: “On a call with reporters about election lawsuits, [Republican National Committee chairwoman Ronna McDaniel] initially demurred when asked about the GOP gathering, slated for Aug. 24-27 in Charlotte, North Carolina, where the party is set to formally choose President Donald Trump as its nominee. ‘It’s quite a ways away, and there's ample time for us to adjust, if necessary,’ McDaniel said. But later, in response to a question about the Minnesota Republican Party's online convention possibly being disrupted by hackers, McDaniel said: ‘We will not be holding a virtual convention.’ The RNC has hired a medical adviser for the convention, and McDaniel said the party will need to consult with the Charlotte mayor and North Carolina governor on logistics.”
What if they held a convention and nobody came? - NYT: “Three months before their national convention is to kick off in Milwaukee, Democratic Party officials are planning for three scenarios depending on the severity of the coronavirus pandemic at the time. But the planners face a substantial problem in putting on the quadrennial event, recognizable to Americans as the traditional launch of the presidential general election campaign: Many of the delegates don’t want to go. Interviews with 59 members of the Democratic National Committee and superdelegates who will formally nominate former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. in August found that the vast majority of them don’t want to risk their own health or the health of others by traveling to Milwaukee and congregating inside the convention facilities.”
Poll shows Biden pulling away in Arizona - US News: “Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump among voters in Arizona, according to a new survey that has consistently shown the former vice president ahead in a state that hasn't chosen a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton. An OH Predictive Insights poll found that Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, is leading Trump by 7 points in Arizona, which Clinton last secured for Democrats in a three-way contest in 1996. The latest poll shows support for Biden at 50% compared to Trump's 43%, a lead for the former vice president in the organization's third straight survey, which polls 600 likely general election voters in Arizona and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points. The Democratic candidate has repeatedly led Trump in state polling since February 2019, with just one exception in December that saw support for Trump at 46% compared to Biden's 44%.”
New Mexico governor in consideration for veep - Politico: “New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham told allies in recent days that Joe Biden’s campaign has begun vetting her for vice president, according to a source familiar with the conversations. Harry Reid, the influential former Senate majority leader, has encouraged Biden, a friend, to consider Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto. But as Latino lawmakers and donors step up their lobbying on behalf of both women, the two most prominent Latina prospects for vice president have been overshadowed by other contenders — another sign, some worry, of the stubborn disconnect between a critical segment of the electorate and the Biden campaign. Biden’s campaign has been slow to diversify its staff, and after paying little attention to Latino voters in the primary, has work to do to make up ground in reaching the group — a problem that pollsters say could result in persuadable Latinos moving toward President Donald Trump or sitting out the election.”
Peter Hamby: ‘Why the Uncle Joe-can’t-internet criticism is mostly malarkey’ - Vanity Fair: “The North Star for Biden’s campaign is the normie voter—the person who might not have the most sophisticated taste or the smartest opinion but lives in an economy removed from the one occupied by most of the media. Obama won because he reached low-information voters, and Biden will have to do the same. … There are plenty of tactics to borrow and advice to be had, but Biden will lose in November if he chases virality and follower counts that don’t actually grow support among voters, and he’ll lose if he tries to Xerox another candidate’s playbook. Biden isn’t Trump, nor is he Obama, Sanders, or Clinton. Biden can win if he understands that he doesn’t need to ‘win the internet’ to win the White House—and that Trump is actually losing in the polls despite being an omnipresent force online.”
Reade legal time threatens critic - Politico: “Tara Reade’s attorneys have sent a ‘cease and desist’ letter to one of her most outspoken critics, the owner of a not for profit who has publicly accused Reade of being ‘manipulative’ and ‘a liar.’ Lynn Hummer, the owner of Pregnant Mare Rescue in Santa Cruz County, Calif. where Reade volunteered from 2014-2016, received a letter from Reade’s lawyers dated May 17, calling on her to stop making comments ‘to the media and online’ about Reade, which they call false and defamatory. A copy of the letter was provided to POLITICO. … Hummer has portrayed Reade as dishonest in media interviews, including with POLITICO, and on social media, accusing her of taking advantage of the not for profit. Hummer has said that Reade charged Pregnant Mare Rescue for a costly veterinarian bill that serviced Reade’s personal horse.”
Team Trump wants 50,000 poll monitors in November - NYT: “Six months before a presidential election in which turnout could matter more than persuasion, the Republican Party, the Trump campaign and conservative activists are mounting an aggressive national effort to shape who gets to vote in November — and whose ballots are counted. … Democrats and voting rights advocates say the driving factor is politics, not fraud — especially since Mr. Trump’s narrow win in 2016 underscored the potentially crucial value of depressing turnout by Democrats, particularly minorities. The Republican program, which has gained steam in recent weeks, envisions recruiting up to 50,000 volunteers in 15 key states to monitor polling places and challenge ballots and voters deemed suspicious. That is part of a $20 million plan that also allots millions to challenge lawsuits by Democrats and voting-rights advocates seeking to loosen state restrictions on balloting.”
RNC pumps up field staff - Axios: “The RNC will [add] 300 more Trump Victory staff who'll deploy to target states by June 1, bringing the field staff to [more than 1,1000]. The RNC says Trump Victory, the joint field effort between the party and the Trump campaign, has transitioned volunteers to digital organizing tools like ‘Trump Talk,’ which lets them phone bank from home. … The party says Trump Victory teams made 10 million calls last week, an RNC record.”
TRUMP TAKES ROLE AS DRUG PITCHMAN TO NEXT LEVEL
NYT: “President Trump said on Monday that he had been taking hydroxychloroquine, an antimalarial drug the Food and Drug Administration warned could cause serious heart problems for coronavirus patients. He said he was taking the drug as a preventive measure and continued to test negative for the coronavirus. ‘All I can tell you is so far I seem to be OK,’ Mr. Trump said, adding that he had been taking the drug for about a week and a half, with the approval of the White House physician. ‘I get a lot of tremendously positive news on the hydroxy,’ Mr. Trump continued, explaining that his decision to try the drug was based on one of his favorite refrains: ‘What do you have to lose?’ But Mr. Trump’s announcement surprised many of his aides and drew immediate criticism from a range of medical experts…”
Barr waves off Trump on Obama prosecution - WSJ: “Attorney General William Barr said Monday he didn’t expect former President Obama or Vice President Joe Biden to be investigated as part of an examination of the origins of a federal probe into whether the 2016 Trump campaign colluded with Russia. Mr. Barr last year appointed John Durham, the U.S. attorney for Connecticut, to review the origins of the 2016 probe into possible links between the Trump campaign and Russian election interference. … Mr. Barr didn’t provide details on exactly what or whom Mr. Durham was investigating, but he expressed concern generally about a trend to ‘gin up allegations of criminality by one’s political opponents based on the flimsiest of legal theories.’ … But Mr. Barr said, as he has in the past, that Mr. Trump was the victim of a years long ‘utterly false Russian collusion narrative’ and that standards at the Justice Department were abused to reach a particular result. ‘We can’t allow this to ever happen again,’ he said.”
Andy McCarthy: End politicized prosecutions - National Review: “Few have more closely followed the Obama administration’s Trump – Russia investigation, or been more critical of it, than I have. Still, if we want to preserve a Justice Department we value (the one I was proud to serve in for many years), we must end the politicization of law enforcement. If we can agree that this is an imperative, we must then ask: Is the best way to do that by bringing a ‘creative’ indictment – i.e., charges based on a flimsy legal theory –that would inevitably be condemned by many as the most politically controversial prosecution in American history? It is simply a fact that there is a salient distinction between abuses of power and penal offenses. This is a distinction I’ve tried to draw for years. It was a constant lesson of the Obama presidency, in which prosecutorial discretion, along with the government’s bureaucratic and administrative processes, were systematically politicized and weaponized against opponents and dissenters.”
Report: Portrait ceremony latest casualty of Obama-Trump feud - NBC News: “It's been a White House tradition for decades: A first-term president hosts a ceremony in the East Room for the unveiling of the official portrait of his immediate predecessor that will hang in the halls of the White House for posterity. … Yet this modern ritual won't be taking place between Obama and President Donald Trump, according to people familiar with the matter. And if Trump wins a second term in November, it could be 2025 before Obama returns to the White House to see his portrait displayed among every U.S. president from George Washington to Bush.”
MCSALLY NOW TRAILS BY 13 IN ARIZONA POLL
Arizona Republic: “Arizona Sen. Martha McSally is sliding in the polls, dropping four percentage points in a month. McSally now trails Democrat Mark Kelly by 13 points, according to the latest tracking poll by OH Predictive Insights. While the April poll of 600 likely voters favored Kelly 51% to McSally’s 42%, in May it’s now 51%-38%. The poll shows independents breaking more than 2-1 for Kelly. … The bad news comes from Maricopa County, where Republicans rule. At least, they did rule, until Democrat Kyrsten Sinema defeated McSally there in 2018 -- stealing 88 mostly-suburban precincts that normally would go to the Republican nominee. … In May 2019, this same tracking poll showed Kelly up over McSally, 46%-41%, among likely voters in Maricopa County. In May 2020, Kelly has climbed to 54% in Maricopa County while McSally has dropped to 36%.”
Speaking of Maricopa County, Sheriff Joe is back - McClatchy: “As Donald Trump carried Arizona on his way to the White House four years ago, voters were simultaneously ushering another nationally renowned Republican with polarizing views on law enforcement and immigration out of office. Now Joe Arpaio is back, mounting a campaign for his old job as sheriff of Maricopa County — the nation’s fourth-most populous county that could determine the outcome of the presidential election not just in Arizona, but nationally. Republicans are warily eyeing the return of the 87-year-old Arpaio, who was pardoned by the president in 2017 for defying a court order and still calls Trump his ‘hero.’ Democrats, meanwhile, view Arpaio’s crushing 13-point loss in 2016 as a harrowing omen for Trump this fall in a state that is quickly emerging as one of the most competitive 2020 battlegrounds.”
Election day for fight to replace retiring Walden - Roll Call: “The Republican primary to replace retiring GOP Rep. Greg Walden in the rural 2nd District has attracted more than $1 million in outside spending, since the winner is likely to come to Congress. President Donald Trump carried the district, which covers two-thirds of the state, by 20 points in 2016. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race Solid Republican. Walden’s retirement drew a crowded field of 11 Republicans, but four candidates have emerged as the top contenders: former state Rep. Knute Buehler, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2018; businessman Jimmy Crumpacker; and former state Sens. Cliff Bentz and Jason Atkinson. Most of the outside spending has been focused on attacking Buehler for statements he made in his bid to be governor of reliably blue Oregon. Buehler said he supports abortion rights, criticized Trump, and called on the president to withdraw Brett M. Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court…”
LEGAL BATTLES GROW OVER STATE CORONA RESTRICTIONS
Fox News: “Legal challenges to governors' coronavirus shutdown orders are piling up nationwide, putting state leaders on the defensive as citizens and businesses itching to get back to normal take their arguments to court -- in some cases succeeding at voiding the governors' actions. The Wisconsin Supreme Court, for example, struck down Democratic Gov. Tony Evers' ‘safer at home’ order on the grounds that his administration did not have the power to unilaterally impose the restrictions without the input of the state legislature. Evers Monday gave up his effort to reimpose statewide rules to slow the coronavirus' spread after it became clear he would not be able to come to an agreement with Republican lawmakers. ‘The Republicans made it very clear they don’t believe a statewide approach is the right way to go at this point in time,’ he said. ‘It doesn’t make a lot of sense spending a lot of time doing something we know isn’t going to be successful.’”
Oregon restrictions upheld - CBS News: “The Oregon Supreme Court late Monday halted a rural judge's order from earlier in the day that tossed out statewide coronavirus restrictions imposed by Democratic Gov. Kate Brown. Baker County Circuit Judge Matthew Shirtcliff had ruled that Brown erred by not seeking the Legislature's approval to extend the stay-at-home orders beyond a 28-day limit. The Supreme Court's ruling stays Shirtcliff's decision pending a review by all the high court justices. In a statement, Brown praised the Supreme Court action. Shirtcliff issued his opinion in response to a lawsuit filed earlier this month by 10 churches around Oregon that argued the state's social distancing directives were unconstitutional.”
PLAY-BY-PLAY
Rep. John Ratcliffe clears Senate panel for top Trump intelligence position - WaPo
Rubio tapped as acting Intelligence Committee chair, replacing Burr - WaPo
Trump taps new company for Covid-19 drugs - NYT
Trump threatens to keep WHO funding freeze in place after WH investigation - Fox News
Pergram: Battle over House Dems' coronavirus aid bill sends these messages - Fox News
AUDIBLE: ‘SUNNY DAYS WILL RETURN AGAIN’
“When your children look back on the impact COVID-19 had on their lives, they won’t remember having frozen pizza three nights in a row, or that the laundry piled up for a week. They’ll remember that you helped with homework and read to them; that you sat with them for dinner and listened to their concerns; that you had popcorn for movie night, drew with chalk on the sidewalk, or went for a family walk. You can be the hero for your children. Love them, hug them, spend time with them, keep them safe, and tell them that sunny days will return again.” – Former first lady Laura Bush in an essay for the Bush Institute.
FROM THE BLEACHERS
“I realize that all the networks are headquartered in NY and they naturally believe that NY is the center of the Universe, about 20M people live in NY which means that 310M don’t. And most of them don’t give rip what Gov. Cuomo has to say. Why do you broadcast Cuomo’s little speeches every day? New Yorkers can tune to local stations if they want to listen to him. You don’t broadcast the other 49 governors.” – Phil Filiatreau, Sherwood, Ark.
[Ed. note: I don’t have beans to say about what airs on television when, and I certainly have written about the inherent bias in news coverage for the events in the Northeast. But I do think this one is a little different in the sense that New York has been ground zero for the worst natural disaster in memory. If Florida lost more than 30,000 people in a hurricane, we’d certainly want to hear from its governor about the recovery and relief efforts. As New York comes out of the storm, we presumably will hear less about it. Until then, that sounds like a good time to get yourself a delicious Squirt grapefruit soda.]
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WELL, DRUNKS DO ACT LIKE TODDLERS
WBAL-TV: “An Ocean City restaurant has a unique way to stay socially distanced while enjoying a cold one and a sandwich. Fish Tales Bar and Grill on Herring Way off 22nd Street received 10 ‘bumper tables’ over the weekend. The idea is the patron gets inside the table that's equipped with bumpers, keeping them 6 feet apart from everyone else. The tables are the brainchild of Revolution Event Design and Production. Company founder and CEO Erin Cermak is cousins with Donna Harman, who, with her husband, Shawn Harman, owns Fish Tales. ‘Anything event related that's tied to creativity is what our niche is,’ Cermak told WBALTV.com. ‘When COVID hit, our phones weren't ringing off the hook, so we were trying to envision what events were going to look like…’ Shawn Harman described the tables as basically an ‘adult version of a toddler walker.’ Revolution makes them at its warehouse and production facility in Baltimore.”
AND NOW A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“[Obama] leaves office as he came in: a man of the left, but possessing the intelligence and discipline to suppress his more radical instincts.” – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) writing in the Washington Post on Jan. 19, 2017.
Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.