Does USC's poor opening game attendance mean Lincoln Riley's on the hot seat already?

The 2026 college football season is officially underway, and with it returns one of the greatest sporting traditions: criticizing crowd sizes and attendance.

This season, the culprit was USC, as the Trojans opened their 2026 season at home against San Jose State. Because college football scheduling is no longer based on what makes sense given a location, local time zones, time of year, or weather, NBC picked the 12pm Pacific Time window for kickoff.

That's always a tough time for Southern California locals, because Saturday traffic in the Los Angeles area, particularly for events around downtown LA, makes getting in and out of venues an hours-long slog. Combine it with the $60 parking a mile away, a poor quality opponent, and one of the most brutal weather days of the year, with atrocious heat and humidity, and it's a recipe for reduced attendance.

USC FOOTBALL RIPPED FOR PATHETIC CROWD AT HOME OPENER: 'ABSOLUTELY EMBARRASSING'

That's exactly what happened. And the college football world rushed to do what it does best, roast other programs. The crowd at kickoff was extremely small, though, it did fill in a bit more by late in the first quarter. Unsurprisingly, with the game already decided in the first 15-18 minutes and the awful conditions, it quickly emptied out.

Many commentators rushed to say that the low turnout is why USC will not make the College Football Playoff this year, while adding that Lincoln Riley is officially on the hot seat. And to be fair to those uninformed opinions, there's little doubt that USC's underwhelming performances in recent years contributed to the poor showing. But one thing those commentators, and most fans, completely misunderstand, is that attendance and fan support has quite literally nothing to do with team quality.

This phenomenon though, continues to have widespread support across college football. Fans show up to watch Arkansas on seven days a year, therefore Arkansas must be a good program with good players. Does it matter if the Razorbacks finish 2-10? Does that make them a bad program? Apparently not, because their fans showed up to watch them lose.

Then there's the other, oft-ignored part of this discussion: fan attendance at big programs in hot weather in the heat has often been a problem. Here's how one story covering the Florida Gators' struggles to fill up their stadium for noon kickoffs described "The Swamp."

"As I enter the stadium a few minutes before kickoff, the audio system rumbles through the cement pillars and I’m ready for an overwhelming surge of energy. But when I make it out into the open air, the first thing I notice are empty metal bleachers reflecting rays of bright Florida sun. While the alumni section I’m standing in is filled, the top third of the student section opposite me is mostly empty, a scatter-plot weighted toward the bottom. I was expecting the frenzied vibe of a rave; what I’ve got is more of a buzzy mimosa brunch."

And that was a highly attended game, according to Tyler Nettuno, a reporter for the school paper explained.

"The general admission seats above both end zones are patchy, too. 'For a 12 o’clock game,' Nettuno continues, 'this is the best I’ve seen it.'"

The story goes on to point out that "Ohio State, Virginia Tech and Ole Miss suffered declines of greater than 5%" in attendance. As well as the fact that Clemson didn't sell out a single game in a year they won a National Championship. While Ohio State fans explained they'd rather go sit at a bar with friends or at home instead of watching a blowout win over Florida Atlantic.

In 2025, crowd shots of a mostly empty "Death Valley" at LSU went viral on college football Twitter.

Attendance has little to do with whether a team is headed for a playoff spot. And the reasons behind the national decline in attendance are obvious. It's easier than ever to watch games through streaming services on phones. Ticket prices continue to increase, even as everyday life becomes increasingly expensive. Staying home in bad weather allows fans to track other games instead of being in miserable heat to watch a blowout win. Many younger alumni aren't as dedicated to football either, as schools bolster their academic admission standards or push for more STEM students.

Not to mention that we ran this experiment, on how much crowds impact outcomes in home games during COVID, and found that, at least in the NFL, league average home field advantage essentially stayed almost identical from 2019-2020. Fans and fan noise just don't matter as much as they'd like to believe.

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So with that established, did the Trojans 42-26 win over San Jose State tell us anything about their hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff? No, not really.

Opposing fans ready to bury USC and Riley, particularly the ever-disgruntled Oklahoma fans, jumped all over the poor fourth quarter performance. And justifiably so. But when USC's starters were in the game, they dominated.

In the first half, for example, San Jose State had five drives. On four of them, the Spartans gained a total of 36 yards. Their first quarter "offense" was six plays for 11 yards and two punts. They did have one drive go 66 yards on 14 plays before a turnover on downs. But overall, their offense averaged just 3.9 yards per play and gained 102 total yards. Their first drive of the third quarter was a three-and-out with six yards. So while the starters and second string were in the game, SJSU gained 108 yards on 29 plays.

To their credit, the Spartans were able to move the ball against the Trojans' backups and third stringers, with plenty of USC's players held out entirely due to injury concerns. But for those quick to bury them for 2026, we can look at some recent history to show that isn't warranted.

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In 2024, Oregon had a 17-14 lead over Idaho midway through the fourth quarter. They needed their starters to score a final touchdown with five minutes left to win 24-14 as 45.5 point favorites. They made the playoff at the end of that season.

In 2025, the eventual SEC champion Georgia Bulldogs had a two possession lead over FCS team Austin Peay until midway through the fourth quarter, leaving their starters in before securing an unimpressive 28-6 win as 48.5 point favorites.

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Also in 2025, eventual undefeated national champions Indiana beat Old Dominion 27-14 in week one and allowed 218 rushing yards and 314 total yards with nearly seven yards per play. They were 24-point favorites.

So are there reasons for concern around USC? Sure, the backups will be needed throughout the season, and the poor fourth quarter wasn't encouraging. Riley hasn't exactly given fans reasons for confidence at SC, and it's clear that their secondary needs work.

But Jayden Maiava was 25/29 for 286 yards and two touchdowns without playing a particularly impressive game, by his standards. The Trojans spread the ball around, and their impressive freshman defensive end Luke Wafle made national highlights. Nobody knows whether SC can make the leap and make the playoff, despite their difficult schedule. There is one thing for certain though, an understandably bad crowd and fourth quarter didn't tell us anything.