Outrageous disrespect: Spurs shouldn't be big underdogs against Thunder in Game 2
OKC is a -7.5 favorite but San Antonio's rebounding and free-throw edges from Game 1 are sustainable, not fluky
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}The 2026 Western Conference Finals' series-opening instant classic is a hard act to follow. But the San Antonio (1-0) and Oklahoma City Thunder (0-1) will try in Game 2 Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Thanks to a game for the ages by Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio upset Oklahoma City 122-115 in double overtime in Game 1. Wembanyama had game-highs in points (41), rebounds (24) and blocks (3) and banged an absurd 27-foot game-tying 3-pointer to force double overtime.
Wemby and the Spurs did a phenomenal job defending Thunder big Chet Holmgren and reigning two-time NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Monday. Holmgren was held to 8 points on 28.6% shooting (2-for-7) and SGA scored 24 points on 30.4% shooting (7-for-23).
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}CAN VICTOR WEMBANYAMA BE THE TRUE FACE OF THE NBA AS A EUROPEAN?
Even though they trailed for 81% of Game 1, the Thunder are still a -7/-7.5 favorite for Game 2. Usually, this is a get-right game for the big favorite. There is a profitable NBA postseason system where big favorites roll in Game 2 after losing the series opener.
San Antonio Spurs All-Star Victor Wembanyama dunks on the Oklahoma City Thunder during Game 1 in the 2026 Western Conference Finals at Paycom Center. (Joshua Gateley/Getty Images)
However, I'm fading that noise because I'll bet Wembanyama's teams if they are ever +4 underdogs or greater for the next 10 or more years.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Best Bet: San Antonio Spurs +7.5 (-115)
Part of the reason big favorites bounce back and win Game 2 is that the underdog stole the series opener due to an unsustainable performance. That's not the case for San Antonio, though.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}The Spurs won three of the "four factors" in Game 1: Effective field goal rate, which blends 2- and 3-point shooting, rebounding and the free-throw battle.
San Antonio Spurs big Victor Wembanyama blocks Oklahoma City Thunder wing Jalen Williams in double overtime of Game 1 of their conference finals series in the 2026 NBA Playoffs. (Alonzo Adams/Imagn Images)
San Antonio's edges in rebounding and free throws are especially troubling for OKC. The Spurs grabbed 21 more rebounds in Game 1 and got to the foul line 10 more times.
Now, people might say that’s due for regression, but not necessarily. San Antonio led the NBA in defensive rebounding and FT/FGA rate during the regular season. With Wemby out there, the Spurs will always grab rebounds and don't have to gamble on defense.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Also, if there was an outlier performance in Game 1, it was Thunder wing Alex Caruso's team-high 31 points on 11-for-19 shooting. Ultimately, the Spurs will allow him to chuck threes since any Caruso jumper is a good defensive possession for them.
San Antonio Spurs C Victor Wembanyama gets a putback on the Oklahoma City Thunder center Chet Holmgren in Game 1 of the 2026 Western Conference Finals. (Alonzo Adams/Imagn Images)
Moreover, as a team, the Thunder were only 13th in offensive FT/FGA rate this season and 22nd in total rebounding rate. Shai is a "free-throw merchant," but Oklahoma City isn’t.
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{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Lastly, the market expects the Thunder to make proper adjustments in Game 2, but their depth is overrated in this matchup. San Antonio goes nine-deep, including 2025-26 NBA Sixth Man of the Year, Keldon Johnson, which is enough for the playoffs.
Prediction: Thunder 108, Spurs 104
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