Blazin’ 5 for Week 10: Patriots vs. Lions, Vikings upset Packers, Ravens or Chargers? | The Herd
Colin Cowherd lists his best bets entering week 10, including the New England Patriots covering vs. the Detroit Lions, the Minnesota Vikings upsetting the Green Bay Packers, and whether or not the Baltimore Ravens can beat the Los Angeles Chargers.
Set the alarm and put the coffee on. The NFL is back in Germany Sunday morning, with the New England Patriots and Detroit Lions kicking off at 9:30 a.m. ET from Allianz Arena in Munich.
On the surface, this looks like an easy read. Detroit is 6-2 and riding a four-game winning streak. New England is 5-4 and coming off a 45-27 beating at home by Green Bay, a game where Drake Maye threw three interceptions, got sacked four times and watched the Packers turn four takeaways into three touchdowns.
The betting market has seen all of that, and it has made its call. I think that call creates value on the other side.
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Patriots +130 | Lions -150
Spread: Lions -2.5
Total: 49.5 to 51.5 depending on the book
Best bet: Patriots moneyline (+130)
Props: Hunter Henry over 35.5 receiving yards (-115), Drake Maye over 25.5 rushing yards (-115), Mack Hollins over 34.5 receiving yards (-115)
Sunday, Nov. 15, 9:30 a.m. ET, Allianz Arena, Munich, [TV]
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Follow the money, then go the other way
The moneyline split is about as lopsided as it gets. At one major sportsbook, 95.85% of the moneyline money is on Detroit.
That’s a market reacting to the last game it watched. Everyone saw Green Bay put up 478 yards on New England, and everyone saw Detroit win four straight. Nobody wants to lay money on a team that just got embarrassed at home.
The spread tells a more interesting story. Detroit has drawn 68% of the spread tickets, but 55% of the actual money has come in on New England. When the bigger bets go one way and the ticket count goes the other, that’s usually a sign of where the sharper money is. The line has moved to match, dropping from Detroit -3 to -2.5 during the week.
The casual crowd is all over the Lions. The bigger money is quietly backing the Patriots.
The Patriots don’t lose twice
This is the number that anchors the bet. New England is 6-0 in the game after a loss since the start of last season. Every time this team has been knocked down, it has come back and won the next week.
The Green Bay loss looks worse on paper than it was. The Patriots turned it over four times, and those giveaways turned straight into points. New England averages 2.11 giveaways per game this season, which is the real problem. But the Patriots are 3-0 when Maye doesn’t throw an interception, and 10-1 since 2025 when they allow fewer than three sacks.
Turnovers can swing wildly from week to week, and a team’s ability to bounce back is a much more reliable trait. That’s what you’re betting here.
New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel looks on from the sideline during an NFL game against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on Sept. 9, 2026, in Seattle, Wash. (Getty Images)
Detroit’s streak is softer than it looks
The Lions’ four-game run is real, but the offense driving it has cooled off. Detroit scored 20, 19 and 19 points in its last three games, and its last three games all went under the total. That’s a long way from the offense that opened the season going over in each of its first five.
The Lions’ defense has carried the streak, allowing 21, 17, 15 and 9 points in the last four games. It’s also a defense that allows 24.2 points per game away from Ford Field. Munich is technically a Detroit home game, but nobody will mistake Allianz Arena for Ford Field.
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There’s also a history worth knowing. Favorites are 5-2 straight up in international games, but only 3-4 against the spread, and five of seven have finished under the closing total. Overseas games tend to be tighter than the market expects, which favors the team getting points and a plus price.
Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell looks on against the Carolina Panthers before an NFL football game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C., on Oct. 4, 2026. (Getty Images)
Props that tell the same story
If the Patriots bounce back, these three props should come along with them.
Hunter Henry over 35.5 receiving yards (-115). This is the best matchup on the board for New England. Detroit allows 25.1 fantasy points per game to tight ends, the most in the NFL. The league average is 13.7. Henry has gone over his longest-reception number in 14 of his last 20 games, and he’s Maye’s safety valve when the pocket gets crowded.
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Drake Maye over 25.5 rushing yards (-115). Detroit averages 3.38 sacks per game, and New England’s offensive line allows pressure on 36.4% of snaps. That’s a recipe for Maye escaping the pocket. If the Patriots want to avoid turnovers, the cleanest answer is letting their quarterback pick up yards with his legs rather than forcing throws into coverage.
Mack Hollins over 34.5 receiving yards (-115). Hollins has gone over his receiving yards number in 10 of his last 12 games. With A.J. Brown most likely a bit limited, Hollins has been the steady target Maye can count on.
Drake Maye #10 of the New England Patriots throws a pass during the third quarter against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on Oct. 22, 2026, in Chicago, Ill. (Getty Images)
The bottom line
Detroit is the better team on paper this week. But the market is paying more for the Lions’ recent record than for how they’ve actually been playing, and it’s discounting a Patriots team that has answered every loss for two seasons.
At +130, with heavy money on the other side and a team that doesn’t lose two in a row, I’ll take my breakfast with a side of New England.
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Give me the Patriots moneyline (+130).
