Rebecca Grant: What Putin Wants from Kim at their first summit

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrives in Russian port city ahead of first meeting with Putin

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrived by an armored train in Russia Wednesday ahead of a highly-anticipated summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will sit down with Russian President Vladimir Putin for their first summit on Thursday.

You may be hearing Kim Jong Un wants Russia’s help to get sanctions relief. But Putin has an agenda, too. And it just might play into President Trump’s overall strategy to get Kim Jong Un to trade nuclear weapons for economic benefits.

Putin is in Mr. Nice Guy mode. He’s out to impress China, South Korea and the world with a serious meeting in Vladivostok. Here’s what Putin wants:

A cash-generating pipeline. Business is on his mind. Putin is lining up deals with North Korea for when sanctions are lifted. Most of all, Putin wants to build a massive liquid natural gas pipeline from Vladivostok down to South Korea. South Korea is the world’s second-largest importer of LNG and it all comes by ship. The catch? The best pipeline route goes through a corner of North Korea. The deal has been under discussion since the last Russia-North Korea summit in 2011 but it’s no go until sanctions lift.

To Kiss Up to South Korea. South Korean President Moon spent three days in Moscow last year talking with Putin about nine major initiatives on everything from trade to the Arctic. For both Russia and South Korea, the long, jolly meeting was a diplomatic slap to China, who freaked out when South Korea deployed THAAD air defense missiles in 2017. Moon wants dialogue with North Korea and Putin is happy to oblige.

International Attention. Putin loves these summits and meetings. Don’t forget that Putin is a bit of an outcast. Russia no longer attends the G8 economic forum because the country’s economy is too small, because of the annexation of Crimea and about a hundred other evil acts. Russia was in the six-party talks with North Korea, but those were shelved years ago. Hosting Kim puts Putin on the world stage he craves.

Leverage with China. Putin knows Xi Jinping is watching. Dealing with a rising China is no picnic for Putin, either. Russia’s economy is barely 10 percent of China’s. Russia holds a slight military edge over the country but China is catching up fast. Fawning over North Korea has been a China-Russia game since Mao and Khrushchev did it back in the 1950s. Talking with Kim might hold possibilities.

Peace and Quiet. Russia – and the world – really feared Trump might go to war before Kim stopped missile tests back in November 2017. Remember, North Korea’s missiles can also reach Russia. Russia guards the 11-mile land border to keep North Korean refugees out. A return to instability in North Korea would be bad for everyone all around. Putin knows the U.S. could whomp North Korea militarily, and he doesn’t want that going on next door.

Denuclearization. Yes, Putin wants North Korea to denuclearize. Putin has been keenly involved in efforts to get the country to do that all along. So far, Russia has held firm allowing the U.N. Security Council, where Russia’s a permanent member, to pass harsh sanctions on Kin Jong Un’s regime. President Trump spent a good portion of their 2018 Helsinki meeting briefing Putin on the Singapore summit. Just last week, U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Steve Biegun had a “constructive” meeting in Moscow where he talked with Russian diplomats about denuking and the Russia-North Korea summit plans.

Should Americans worry about Putin causing trouble? Not yet. If Putin wanted to send secret military aid to North Korea, he doesn’t need a summit to do it. The one big concern might be increased cyber cooperation. Russia has already laid a fiber optic line into North Korea under the Friendship bridge. Kim is keeping his big army and stunning cyber weapons no matter what.

Improbable as it sounds, Russia could actually assist with the process of denuclearization when Kim is ready. Rail cars full of uranium have to roll out of North Korea sometime. Russia has experience with denuclearization from the 1990s.

Just this one time, I’m giving Putin the benefit of the doubt. Evidence suggests Russia can help with denuking, as Russia’s U.N. Security Council votes attest. Putin’s business plans and his fear of a return to U.S. maximum military pressure if denuking fails make powerful incentives.

Bottom line on the Kim-Putin summit: can’t hurt, might help. And who knows, sitting down with Putin might make another meeting with President Trump all the more appealing.