Top 10 Decisions That Will Shape the 2026–27 College Basketball Season

It’s decision time for many of college basketball’s biggest stars.

The deadline for early entrants to withdraw from the 2026 NBA Draft and retain NCAA eligibility is May 27 at 11:59 p.m. ET, giving those prospects who are "testing the waters" one final window to return to school after going through the pre-draft process. In the weeks leading up to that deadline, events like the NBA Draft Lottery and NBA Combine will help shape some of the biggest choices of the offseason.

This year, 71 underclassmen declared for the draft, which is a notable drop from 106 a year ago, and part of a steady decline since 2021. The trend is a direct reflection of the new landscape in college basketball, where NIL opportunities have made returning to school a far more viable option.

With that, here are the 10 undecided players whose choices will have the biggest impact on the 2026–27 men’s college basketball season.

Status: Okorie intends to stay at Stanford if he doesn't remain in the NBA Draft. 

Impact: Okorie was one of the best pure scorers in college basketball this past season, leading the ACC with 23.2 points per game as a freshman. If he returns to college, he’ll look to expand his game beyond scoring and help guide his team to an NCAA Tournament appearance.

The transfer portal has been relatively quiet for Stanford. The Cardinal have not added any players and lost only one key contributor. If Okorie returns, they would largely be running it back after a 20-13 season that ended in the quarterfinals of the College Basketball Crown.

Status: Graves entered the transfer portal and declared for the NBA Draft.

Impact: Graves is seen as a stronger NBA Draft prospect than his production might suggest during the 2025–26 college season. As a freshman at Santa Clara, he came off the bench and averaged 11.8 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, but his shooting (41.3% from three) and size (6-foot-9) are highly covered at the next level.

If Graves returns to college, he would likely make the jump to a Power 4 program in search of a starting role and more on-ball responsibility.

Status: Thomas would return to Arkansas if he doesn't stay in the NBA Draft.

Impact: Thomas is an NBA first-round talent who averaged 15.6 points per game as a freshman, though he was often viewed as secondary to Darius Acuff Jr. in Arkansas’ offense. If he returns, he would likely step into a featured role for the Razorbacks.

Arkansas is adding freshmen Abdou Toure and Jordan Smith to the backcourt but lost both D.J. Wagner and Acuff, positioning Thomas as the go-to option with a young supporting cast around him. That trio could make for a smooth transition as the Razorbacks look to build on their 2026 Sweet 16 run.

Status: Tanner would return to Vanderbilt if he doesn't remain in the NBA Draft.

Impact: Tanner was one of the most improved players in college basketball last season, jumping from 5.7 points and 1.9 assists per game to 19.5 and 5.1, respectively, as a sophomore at Vanderbilt. If he returns for his junior year, he could emerge as one of the top guards in the SEC.

Tanner has yet to advance past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, most recently falling to No. 4 seed Nebraska in heartbreaking fashion when his halfcourt buzzer-beater rattled out. His return would give Vanderbilt a strong backcourt, especially with the additions of Missouri transfer T.O. Barrett and Washington State transfer Ace Glass.

Status: Blackwell has committed to Duke, but could still remain in the NBA Draft

Impact: Blackwell was one of the top scoring guards in the country last season, averaging 19.1 points per game as a junior at Wisconsin. He has since committed to transfer to Duke for his senior year while also testing the NBA Draft waters.

If Blackwell returns to college and suits up for the Blue Devils, Duke could boast one of the most loaded backcourts in the nation. Blackwell would likely start alongside Cayden Boozer, with Caleb Foster and freshman Deron Rippey Jr. providing depth off the bench.

Another year in college would give Blackwell the opportunity to further develop as an initiator, facilitator and defender, which could help improve his NBA stock. He would also aim to help Duke make a deep NCAA Tournament run after Wisconsin’s first-round exit in 2026.

Status: Chinyelu would return to Florida if he doesn't remain in the NBA Draft.

Impact: Chinyelu’s return to Florida would significantly boost the Gators’ chances of getting back to the national championship after failing to advance past the first weekend in 2026. Florida already returns forwards Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon, but neither provides the same level of defensive presence that Chinyelu does.

For a Florida team that was ranked No. 1 in FOX Sports' Casey Jacobsen's Post-Portal Top 25, Chinyelu's return would only solidify that projection. 

Status: Johnson would return to Michigan if he doesn't remain in the NBA Draft.

Impact: Similar to Mara, Johnson would significantly boost Michigan’s chances of defending its 2026 national title. He was one of the most improved players in college basketball last season, averaging 13.1 points and 7.8 rebounds per game as a sophomore, yet was often just the Wolverines’ third or fourth option.

If he returns, and Mara stays in the draft, Johnson could step into a featured role in the frontcourt. A rotation of Johnson, Thiam and Estrella would be as formidable as any in the country.

Status: Mara intends to return to Michigan for his senior season if he doesn't remain in the NBA Draft.

Impact: Mara’s return to Michigan would put the Wolverines firmly in the national title conversation. He boosted his NBA Draft stock with a standout run, leading Michigan to the 2026 national championship. As the most highly touted prospect in this group, a return to college would be surprising, but if he does come back, Michigan would have an even deeper frontcourt than it did last season.

The Wolverines added Moustapha Thiam and J.P. Estrella through the transfer portal and could also welcome back Morez Johnson Jr. The ability to rotate those three alongside Mara would give Michigan a potentially dominant interior presence.

Status: Fears intends to return to Michigan State for his redshirt junior season if he doesn't remain in the NBA Draft.

Impact: Fears’ decision could make or break Michigan State’s ceiling. This past season, Fears was the Spartans’ only true initiator on offense. He is a reliable perimeter defender and, in many ways, an extension of head coach Tom Izzo on the floor. Fears averaged 15.2 points per game and led the nation with 9.4 assists, earning first-team All-Big Ten honors.

Those are not easy numbers to replace, and Michigan State has not added any guards through the transfer portal. If Fears remains in the NBA Draft, it would leave a significant hole in the Spartans’ backcourt.

Status: Momcilovic entered the transfer portal and declared for the NBA Draft after his junior season at Iowa State.

Impact: Momcilovic could raise a team’s ceiling to that of a national title contender if he decides to return, as few players possess his unique skill set. The 6-foot-8 forward averaged 16.9 points per game for the Cyclones in 2026 and led the nation in 3-point shooting at 48.8%.

With many top programs having already allocated the bulk of their NIL budgets, the pool of teams that can realistically afford Momcilovic might be limited. But if he does decide to return to college, whatever team he lands with will immediately become a legitimate threat entering the 2026–27 season.