The 2018 Kentucky Derby features favorite who must buck history to win
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History says Kentucky Derby favorite Justify and his white-haired trainer Bob Baffert can’t win the 144th Run for the Roses Saturday, but who wants to bet on history?
Justify, the 7-2 favorite in early wagering Friday, has run just three races in his life and none as a 2-year-old.
No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Derby without racing as a juvenile. Since 1937, the 61 who have entered the Derby without a race under their belts by the age of 2 have all lost and only eight of the 61 finished in the money, The Wall Street Journal reports.
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Baffert, a four-time Derby winner, came close to overcoming the so-called Apollo curse, finishing second with Bodemeister in 2012.
"We have a good enough horse that can win it, but it's a very competitive race," Baffert said of Justify. "You're going to have to have some luck."
The 20-horse field of 3-year-olds for this year’s Derby includes a handful of top contenders who have been consistent this spring.
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The frequently changing forecast for Saturday calls for a chance of rain at different times during the day. Post time is 6:46 p.m. Eastern.
Bettors made My Boy Jack the 5-1 second choice in Friday’s early wagering. The closer is trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by Kent Desormeaux, a three-time Derby winner and Keith's brother.
Trainer Todd Pletcher's Audible was the co-third choice at 6-1 with Mendelssohn on Friday. Pletcher is saddling four horses in the Derby. One of his other entrants is undefeated Magnum Moon who, like Justify, never raced as a 2-year-old. Pletcher won last year’s Derby with Always Dreaming.
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Mendelssohn is a shipper from Ireland.
Mendelssohn was an 18 ½-length winner of the UAE Derby. His regal bloodlines and $3 million price tag suggest he would be a worthy champion, but no Europe-based horse has won the Derby.
High school dropout Mick Ruis will try to become just the third owner-trainer to win. He has Bolt d'Oro, the colt named in part for Olympic champion sprinter Usain Bolt. Bolt d'Oro finished second to Justify in the Santa Anita Derby.
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"This is the best we've had him," Ruis said.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.