Tropical Storm Pabuk could bring a glancing blow to Japan in the next several days as the system tracks across the warm waters of the West Pacific Ocean.
Regardless of the exact track, dangerous surf from Pabuk will begin to impact Japan on Monday and likely continue for much of the week.
Pabuk, which developed into a tropical storm early Saturday morning, will remain in an environment conducive for some strengthening, and it could briefly attain typhoon status Monday or Tuesday.
Prior to any impacts to Japan, Tropical Storm Pabuk will track northwestward through Monday and will not directly affect any landmasses; however, some deeper moisture partly due to Pabuk has already dumped nearly a foot of rain across Guam over the last three days.
On Tuesday, a strong cold front pushing toward Japan will begin to steer the storm in a more northerly direction.
The cold front is expected to cross Japan during the middle and latter part of the week which will help to capture Pabuk, turn it northeasterly, and steer it just to the east of the mainland.
The timing of the cold front crossing Japan is crucial to determining exactly when Pabuk will get picked up and steered toward the north and northeast.
If the cold front is slower in getting to Japan, Pabuk could pose a much more serious threat for heavy rain, strong winds, and a dangerous storm surge to the country.
Another possibility is that Pabuk does not get completely captured by the cold front next week, and the storm stews around close to Japan for the end of the week.
Interests in Japan are encouraged to keep abreast of the latest track and potential impacts that Pabuk may bring to the region.