Red Sox must make longterm call on Beckett
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A rival general manager recently expressed doubt that the Red Sox would sign right-hander Josh Beckett to a contract extension, saying, "I can't see the Red Sox paying two starting pitchers $80 million."
I couldn't see it either, but then I noticed that the upcoming free-agent classes were practically devoid of elite starting pitching.
Now I get it.
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I'm not convinced the Sox will give Beckett the same deal they awarded right-hander John Lackey in free agency -- five years, $82.5 million. But I can see the logic of them signing Beckett long-term, risky as the move might be.
Other than Beckett, Mariners left-hander Cliff Lee is the only top starting pitcher eligible for free agency next winter -- unless you count Yankees right-hander Javier Vazquez, who is very good, but not a Beckett or Lee.
The following winter, the biggest prize likely would be White Sox left-hander Mark Buehrle, who would be entering his age-33 season. The winter after that - we're talking 2012-13 -- Royals right-hander Zack Greinke would be the top name at age 29.
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Remember when the Yankees declined to trade for left-hander Johan Santana after the 2007 season knowing that they could grab left-hander CC Sabathia and righty A.J. Burnett the following year in free agency?
The Red Sox, looking long-term, face the opposite situation.
Their options are shrinking.
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The future free-agent possibilities thinned considerably this past offseason, when Marlins right-hander Josh Johnson agreed to an extension through 2013 and Tigers righty Justin Verlander and Mariners righty Felix Hernandez signed through '14.
The impact on the Red Sox is obvious: If they do not keep Beckett, they will find it almost impossible to replace him with a comparable pitcher in free agency - or, for that matter, in a trade.
That does not mean the Sox should cave to Beckett, who likely wants Lackey's contract or better, considering that their career statistics are nearly identical.
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Still, Beckett settled for security in his last deal, which will turn out to be four years, $42 million. If he is willing to make the same tradeoff again, the Sox should jump.
High-revenue teams, in particular, need to stay open-minded.
While Sox general manager Theo Epstein, like most of his colleagues, is more comfortable going long-term with position players than pitchers, he showed flexibility last winter when he shifted to a
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pitching-defense emphasis and went five years on Lackey.
The signing of Beckett would represent a different type of adjustment, a reaction to the shifting dynamics of the market.
Lee, most baseball people agree, will go to the highest bidder, seeking at least $100 million. The Yankees likely will be front and center in those sweepstakes, viewing Lee as a long-term replacement for Vazquez. If the Red Sox did not sign Beckett, the rotation advantage would swing significantly in the Yankees' favor.
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If I were Epstein, I still might wait, just to make sure Beckett remains healthy all season. The danger of waiting, though, is that Beckett's price as a free agent might far exceed the Sox's comfort level, ending any possibility of re-signing him.
At that point, the Sox would be left to sift through Vazquez, Ted Lilly and other free agents - many of whom are injury risks themselves.
Beckett, who turns 30 on May 15, is 18 1/2 months younger than Lackey. The Sox secured a measure of injury protection in Lackey's contract - the team can pick up a sixth-year option at the minimum salary if Lackey misses significant time with surgery for a pre-existing elbow condition. They could ask for similar language to cover Beckett's shoulder - which, truth be told, hasn't been an issue for him since he joined the team in 2006.
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Beckett is one of the game's hardest workers, an example to the team's younger pitchers. The Sox take justifiable pride in keeping their pitchers healthy. And while any long-term deal for a starting pitcher is a gamble, the potential upside for the Sox if they sign Beckett is as significant as the potential downside of his departure.
A deal of at least four years for Beckett would give the Sox control of five premier talents - Lackey, Beckett, left-hander Jon Lester and right-handers Clay Buchholz and Casey Kelly - through 2014. Righty Tim Wakefield is under contract through 2011, righty Daisuke Matsuzaka through '12.
The depth of such a group would be stunning.
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A team with lower revenues never could afford to sign Beckett on top of Lackey - the risk of securing even one such pitcher long-term would be too great.
The Sox, though, almost could use one as insurance for the other. If both pitchers stayed healthy, great -- the team likely would remain perennial World Series contenders.
Those future free-agent lists provide all the motivation the Red Sox need to keep Beckett.
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Keeping him actually might be less of a risk than losing him. Rarely does a long-term deal for a starting pitcher make such sense.