Fox News Poll

Fox News Poll: Trump rules GOP race in New Hampshire, Sanders by 1 over Clinton

The 'America's Newsroom' political panel reacts to Clinton walking a fine line amid criticism of the White House and Ben Carson's struggles


Donald Trump leads the race for the Republican nomination in New Hampshire, while Bernie Sanders edges Hillary Clinton among Democrats.

That’s according to the latest Fox News poll, released Wednesday, and conducted since Friday’s terrorist attacks in Paris.

Trump leads with 27 percent of New Hampshire Republican primary voters.  Marco Rubio receives the support of 13 percent, just above Ted Cruz at 11 percent.  That’s it for the double-digit candidates.


Jeb Bush and Ben Carson garner 9 percent each, followed by John Kasich at 7 percent and Chris Christie at 6 percent. 

Just three percent back Carly Fiorina and Rand Paul, while Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum get one percent each. 

There are differences in how some candidates are doing in New Hampshire versus their recent national standing (pre-Paris).  For example, Carson is Trump’s closest competitor nationally, yet he doesn’t break double digits here.  And the reverse is true for Bush, Christie and Kasich, who do better in New Hampshire than nationally.

The poll, however, also shows that the race is in flux: 55 percent of GOP primary voters say they could change their mind before February’s balloting.  Less than half, 44 percent, feel certain of their choice.   

When asked about their second choice candidate, GOP primary voters put Carson at the top of the list at 16 percent.  Rubio is close behind at 13 percent and Trump at 11 percent.

When first and second-choice preferences are combined, Trump (38 percent) and Rubio (26 percent) are still at the top.  However, Carson (25 percent) moves above Cruz (20 percent) and Bush (16 percent).

The favorites among those NH GOP primary voters who identify as “very” conservative are Cruz (27 percent), Trump (26 percent), Carson (13 percent) and Rubio (13 percent).

Here’s how the race for the Democratic nomination stands:  Sanders has a razor-thin one-point edge over Clinton -- 45-44 percent. Martin O’Malley gets 5 percent. 

Sanders can thank younger voters for his edge.  Those under age 45 back him by 29 points (59-30 percent).  Those ages 45 and over are more likely to support Clinton by 17 points (52-35 percent). 

Men go for Sanders over Clinton by 49-37 percent.  Among women, the vote divides 48 percent for Clinton vs. 42 percent for Sanders. 


Potential General Election Matchups

All the candidates remain below 50 percent in the hypothetical matchups tested in this battleground state. 

Although Trump is the top choice of Republican primary voters, he performs the worst against Clinton in general election ballot tests.  Clinton bests Trump by seven points (47-40 percent), Cruz by three points (44-41 percent) and Christie by one (44-43 percent).

Clinton and Fiorina tie at 43 percent each. 

Four Republican candidates come out ahead of the presumptive Democratic nominee:  Rubio is ahead by 7 points (47-40 percent), Bush (45-42 percent) and Kasich (43-40 percent) are up by 3 points each, and Carson has a 2-point edge (45-43 percent). 

President Barack Obama won New Hampshire in both the 2012 presidential election (by 52-46 percent over Republican Mitt Romney) and in 2008 (by 54-45 percent over Republican John McCain).

Among New Hampshire voters overall, about 6 in 10 are unhappy with the way things are going in the country today (58 percent), including 31 percent who are “not at all” satisfied. 

Nearly 9 of 10 Republicans are dissatisfied with how things are going (86 percent), compared to 60 percent of independents and 29 percent of Democrats. 

That dissatisfaction is reflected in Obama’s performance rating, as more New Hampshire voters disapprove (50 percent) than approve (43 percent) of the job he is doing.

The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted November 15-17, 2015, by telephone (landline and cellphone) with live interviewers among a sample of 804 New Hampshire registered voters selected from a statewide voter file.  Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, and 5.5 points for Democratic primary voters and 5 points for Republican primary voters.  The hypothetical matchups were split sampled, which means each question was only asked of half the sample and the results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 points.