Nominees - Best Original Screenplay:
Chance of winning: 95%
Milk is the only best picture nominee in the bunch, and that usually seals the deal. (Unless there’s something else far more original.) WALL-E might get a few votes, but not enough to pose any kind of threat to Milk.
Nominees - Best Adapted Screenplay:
Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Chance of winning: 60%
The competition is fierce, but expect Slumdog to prevail over The Reader and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.