Twelve in 2012 Scorecard Sarah Palin

By Chris Stirewalt

Tonight on Special Report with Bret Baier, the ninth edition of the Twelve in 2012 series.

Each night, Special Report will profile one of a dozen potential Republican presidential contenders. When its all over, look for a documentary special that lays out the state of the 2012 race inside the GOP.

With every installment, Power Play will analyze the candidates strengths, weaknesses and odds of success.

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Sarah Palin

Age: 46

Current Position: Chairwoman of SarahPAC, author, FOX News contributor

Previous experience: Governor of Alaska (2007 to 2009); GOP vice presidential nominee (2008); mayor of Wasilla (1996 to 2002); chairwoman Alaska Oil & Gas Conservation Commission (2003 to 2004); Wasilla City Council member (1992 to 1996); Television sports reporter (1987 to 1989); Co-owner commercial fishing operation (1988 to 2007); Owner, snow machine and ATV dealership (1994 to 1997)

Education: Undergraduate degree from University of Idaho (1987)

Family: Husband, Todd, three daughters, two sons

What you might not know:

When Palin was mayor of Wasilla, she kept a jar filled with the names of city residents on her desk. Once a week, shed pluck out a name and call the constituent to ask how they thought the city was doing.

Her Pitch: The Crowds Go Wild

In the early morning of August 29, 2008, word leaked out that John McCain had picked the 44-year-old, first-term governor of Alaska as his running mate.

On a plane loaded with pressies waiting to take off from Denver, where the Democratic National Convention had been held, the news caused such an uproar that a stewardess had to shoo flabbergasted reporters back to their seats.

Picking Palin was like a sonic boom that rattled the political order and media in a way that perhaps no other vice presidential nominee has.

Republicans fell hard for Palin. Her convention speech the next week, dubbed Palins Slap Shot on the front page of the Washington Examiner., was a huge hit. She was blunt in her attacks on Democratic nominee Barack Obama, funny in her jokes about hockey moms and full of the pep that seemed so lacking in John McCain.

But the hunger for all things Palin combined with the incredulity of many in the press corps led to a media firing squad. Palins unsteady showings in her first big television interviews on ABC and CBS added ammunition and fascination turned into contempt.

But the screeds written about her only confirmed the view among many on the right that they had the right woman. A popular conservative bumper sticker is annoy a liberal, and did she ever.

While her support among moderate Republicans waned, many conservatives rallied to her cause.

It was a negative feedback loop that would continue through the campaign, after the Republican defeat, through her return to Alaska, her decision to step down as governor and as she became a maverick political operative fighting a range war against Washington types in the 2010 midterms.

Palins approval might not have grown, but all the negative stimuli from Democrats, the press and popular culture has helped her maintain a remarkably stable base of support. And Palins uncanny ability to hit hot button issues as a digital pamphleteer everything from death panels to David Lettermans raunchy jokes to quantitative easing at the Federal Reserve has kept her visible and in touch with her supporters.

Other potential candidates would have to spend millions of dollars to establish the kind of network that Palin has achieved through just the force of her personality, the backlash against her and a Facebook account.

If she opts to run, she will bring her army with her, and as the 2010 Republican primaries showed, an enthusiastic base will usually beat broad, lukewarm support.

The Knocks: Polar

Primary voters may be true believers, but they also tend to be more informed voters who are subject to considerations of electability.

And electability would have to be the central point of attack for Palins potential opponents. The line would go something like this We all like and respect Sarah Palin, but she cant beat Barack Obama.

One cant depend much on a presidential poll taken two years out, but survey after survey shows that while Obama has remarkably polarized support, Palins base is even narrower. When the presidents campaign manager described a Palin nomination as a lucky draw, he was talking about the administrations hope for a base-versus-base election.

This might not be enough to dissuade the Palin die hards, but if there is a reliably conservative alternative in the field who can inspire supporters, the question of electability could become damaging. If a Palin foe had the stomach and bank account to last through the January states like Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida and make it into Super Tuesday, the race could turn into a referendum on Palins chances against Obama.

But thats a lot of ifs.

Power Plays Odds on Nomination: 5 to 1