The following is a rush transcript of the January 1, 2012 edition of "Fox News Sunday With Chris Wallace." This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

CHRIS WALLACE, FOX NEWS HOST: I'm Chris Wallace, reporting from Des Moines.

It's game on for the Iowa Republican caucuses.

With nonstop campaigning and a barrage of TV ads, there's a charged atmosphere in the Hawkeye State. We'll talk to three candidates who have a lot riding on what happens in the first contest of the 2012 race.

Congressman Ron Paul, Governor Rick Perry and Congresswoman Michele Bachmann live, only on "Fox News Sunday."

Also, is it message or ground game that will drive Iowans to the caucus sites?

We'll ask our Sunday panel, including Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, which candidate will have a big night Tuesday.

And we'll capture the intensity of the fight for Iowa when we go on the campaign trail.

All right now on "Fox News Sunday."

Hello again and happy New Year from the Iowa state capitol in Des Moines. We are broadcasting today from the ornate house chamber inside of the capitol building.

And joining us live are three candidates who have a lot at stake in the caucuses here Tuesday, Congressman Ron Paul, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, and Governor Rick Perry.

With just two days until we hear from the voters, the race here in Iowa is still up for grabs. Take a look at the final poll out today from the Des Moines Register. Over four days of polling, Mitt Romney leads with 24 percent, with Ron Paul close behind, and Rick Santorum in third with 15 percent. Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Mitchell Bachmann round up the field.

But if you look at the final two days of polling, there's a big change. Romney holds on to his lead, with Rick Santorum jumps to second with 21 percent, and Ron Paul slips to third.

For more on this final week of campaigning, let's get the latest from Fox News chief political correspondent Carl Cameron -- Carl.

CARL CAMERON, FOX NEWS CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Chris. And happy New Year.

With two and a half days of caucus campaign time left for these candidates, and up to 41 percent of the likely caucus-goers still likely to change their minds, according to the "Des Moines Register" and many other polls, it's indisputable. Once again, the Iowa caucuses are coming right down to the wire and the volatility is everywhere. Anybody could pull out a victory here.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CAMERON: After only nine trips to Iowa in all of the last year, a confident Mitt Romney's position for the Iowa caucus win he was denied four years ago. Romney's organization is well-respected and for months, he's been first and second place in dozens of Iowa and national polls.

Ron Paul has the Iowa Republican establishment rattled. He's led some polls in recent weeks and has a strong get out the vote operation. Yes, Paul has been under the withering attack from his rivals for a foreign policy they say is dangerous and out of step with the GOP mainstream.

The caucus game is one of expectations, and Rick Santorum is poised to far exceed them from a come from behind groundswell of support in the final week from religious conservatives, who make up more than half of the caucus vote.

Newt Gingrich, after millions of dollars worth of attack ads against him, could place fourth. He's already looking past Iowa and New Hampshire, and planning for his comeback in South Carolina.

Rick Perry has spent more money on TV ads than any other candidate, and a pro-Perry super PAC has spent more than any other outside group. An army of Texans arrived in recent days to organization his support in Iowa.

Michele Bachmann's final campaign week in Iowa has been rough. Her state chairman defected to Paul and then, she fired another top Iowa deputy. She could become the first Republican ever to win the big Ames, Iowa, straw poll and then come in dead last in the caucuses.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CAMERON: And on this Sunday, New Year's Day, there is likely to be a series of crucial developments all across the Hawkeye State. As we've said, about half of all Iowa likely Republican caucus-goers are self-described Christian conservatives. And today, pastors are in pulpit talking to the parishioners. And if they decide to really get loud behind any one particular candidate, it could have a profound impact the result on Tuesday night -- Chris.

WALLACE: Carl, thanks for that.

Now, the candidate who is at or near the top in most recent polls, Congressman Ron Paul who comes to us from Texas.

Congressman, happy New Year and welcome back to "Fox News Sunday."

REP. RON PAUL, R-TEXAS, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you. Same to you, Chris.

WALLACE: Four years ago, you were running for president and you got 10 percent of the vote in the Iowa caucuses. As we say, in the latest Des Moines Register poll, you are at 22 percent. Why do you think you are getting so much more traction here in Iowa this time?

PAUL: Well, it isn't because I've changed my message, Chris. My message has been the same for 30 years and it's same as four years ago. But the world has changed and the country has changed.

I've talked about economic policies for a long time, warned about financial bubbles and the correction that was coming. And that has arrived and people now are saying the economy is a big deal. Spending is a big deal. The debt is a big deal.

This is what I worked for whole my career on trying to warn people about.

But also in foreign policy, I get tremendous support on my position, which the other candidates say it is dangerous believing in the Constitution that shouldn't go to war unless you declare the war.

So, this is the kind of thing -- people come around here are tired of the wars. Seventy percent of the American people want us out of Afghanistan. It's bankrupting us. We spent $4 trillion that went into the debt in these 10 years.

And I'm deeply, you know, concerned about civil liberties.

So, these issues strike a chord with the people and I think that is a reason, more so now that even four years ago, but a lot more than maybe 20 or 30 years ago, because right now, the evidence is loud and clear that government is failing in what they pretend they are going to do for us. And that's why the people are looking for different answers.

WALLACE: On the other hand, Congressman, in the latest Des Moines Register poll, on those final two days, it shows some evidence of a slide. And, in fact, Santorum passes you and you fall into third.

What can you do about that slide, sir?