By David Troy
Published May 04, 2026
It has not been the most impressive stretch from me on the diamond lately. I had a play on the Braves superstud Ozzie Albies yesterday, and despite him getting a pair of hits, he didn't cash my bet. Seems almost difficult to do, but that was because I needed him to get three total bases instead of two. I knew the parlay was a long shot, so I'm not disappointed in that. Still, I need to get back on track and I have a look here between the Phillies and Marlins.
The Philadelphia Phillies are considered one of the bigger disappointments to start the MLB season. Now that we are more than 30 games into the season, I think we have to accept that this is who the team is. However, the Phillies didn't sit around doing nothing. They saw that the team was underperforming and abandoned their plan. They sent away their manager and have gone 5-1 since that dismissal. They won yesterday's game and have assured themselves of at least a mutual 2-2 split of this four-game set.

Philadelphia Phillies bench coach Don Mattingly stands in the dugout during a game against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park in Cumberland, Georgia, on April 26, 2026. (Dale Zanine/Imagn Images)
Tonight, they turn to Aaron Nola in hopes of getting a series win. It has been a rough start to the year for Nola, going 1-3 with a 6.03 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. He has been worse on the road than at home this season, giving up 15 of his 21 runs as a visiting starter. He has allowed five or more runs in both of his last road outings. The Phillies have overall lost five of his six starts for the year. Marlins hitters have been very good against Nola in the past, going 11-for-26 against him.
The Miami Marlins are a bit of a surprise to start the year. They are under .500 at the moment at just 16-18, but have a winning record at home. Collectively, the team is hitting better than expected, posting a .252 batting average with 146 runs scored for the year. They only have 25 homers, so there is some reason to believe this is sustainable, as power tends to come and go for a lot of clubs. Their pitching has even been reliable with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP.
PHILLIES FIRE ROB THOMSON, MAKE DON MATTINGLY TO INTERIM MANAGER AFTER DISMAL START TO THE SEASON

Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper stands on the field between innings at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on April 19, 2026. (Jess Stiles/Sipa USA)
Janson Junk takes the pill tonight for the fish, and he has been solid this season. In six starts, Junk has turned in a 2-2 record with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He has been very strong at home with a 2.86 ERA over 22 innings. He only made one start this season where he allowed more than three earned runs. Currently, he is the proud owner of 11 straight scoreless innings. He has allowed only four hits and two walks over that stretch as well. Phillies hitters are batting just 4-for-20 against him with no extra-base hits.

Miami Marlins' Owen Caissie celebrates with teammates after hitting a walk-off two-run home run to defeat the Colorado Rockies in Miami on March 29, 2026. (Lynne Sladky/AP)
In this game, we have the hot Phillies, taking on the very talented Marlins team. This is a young and hungry Miami squad against a Philadelphia team that is looking for a turnaround. Of the two starters, I think the better one, at least right now, is Junk. Nola has been reliable for years, but this has been a rough start.
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I'm going to take the Marlins through five innings in this game. Although the team looks a bit more rejuvenated, I think Nola needs to shift his mechanics a bit. I'm going to take Miami at -120.
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https://www.foxnews.com/outkick-sports/marlins-pitcher-janson-junks-scoreless-streak-makes-miami-pick-struggling-aaron-nola