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Ex-CENTCOM chief details 'exquisite intelligence' behind Iran strikes, says next steps hinge on 'missile math'
By Max Bacall
Published March 04, 2026
Former Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Gen. David Petraeus detailed the conditions and "exquisite intelligence" that led to Operation Epic Fury, adding that strategy going forward will hinge on what he called "missile math."
The retired general and former CIA director explained on "Fox & Friends" Wednesday that many in the U.S. intelligence community believed Israel was gearing up to strike Iran due to concerns over the reconstitution of Iran's missile stocks.
"Despite the great Israeli and American defenses, still 5% to 7% of those [missiles] got through in the 12-Day War," he said.
A general view of Tehran with smoke visible in the distance after explosions were reported in the city on Monday. (Contributor/Getty Images)
Petraeus then pointed to the "very frustrating" drawn-out nuclear talks, which he said gave the sense that Iran was stringing the U.S. along.
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But he said the real catalyst was "this exquisite intelligence and an opportunity to achieve at least tactical surprise," referring to intelligence indicating that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top leaders were gathering in broad daylight on Saturday after no attack materialized in the early morning hours, when such assaults are typically launched.
Petraeus called the Iranian leaders' move a "stunning miscalculation" that showed the "arrogance of the supreme leader" and enabled Israeli forces to kill Khamenei along with a number of others.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in Operation Epic Fury, is seen sitting next to a senior military official in Iran. (Getty Images)
He said the U.S. achieved "air superiority – if not air supremacy."
"The Iranians are defenseless at this point against air attack and missile attack, as long as you stay above a certain altitude," he said, noting that the achievement allowed the U.S. to deploy B-1, B-2 and B-52 bombers.
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"This is the real heavyweight stuff. Carry enormous bomb loads, very precise, and they're now able to get into this fight as well," he said.
He said CENTCOM is now likely focused on the so-called "missile math" — the calculation of how many missiles and launchers Iran still has and the available defense systems between Israel, the U.S. and allies.
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Petraeus said that, while America is paving the way to topple the Iranian regime, it will be up to forces on the ground to make that change happen.
"That's not something, in general, that is possible from the air... It's going to have to be those on the ground who take advantage of that," Petraeus said.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/ex-centcom-chief-details-exquisite-intelligence-behind-iran-strikes-says-next-steps-hinge-missile-math