A large area of unsettled weather near and south of India will yield the potential for two tropical cyclones in the coming days.
In this area, showers and thunderstorms has already led to locally heavy rainfall across southern India and Sri Lanka since the weekend.
Farther south, the showers and thunderstorms have become better organized during the past 24 hours as a low-level circulation developed.
The above satellite image from Tuesday shows the better organized area of showers and thunderstorms well south of India and a second area of showers and thunderstorms east of Sri Lanka.
Close monitoring of this area is needed during the next 24 to 48 hours as a tropical cyclone tries to take shape. If tropical development does occur, the most likely track would take the storm to the south before upper level winds take the storm westerly and toward Madagascar next week.
Although the showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized at this point near India and Sri Lanka, slow development will be possible over the next several days.
If wind shear decreases, the potential will also increase for development of a possible second tropical cyclone to the east of Sri Lanka. This storm would pose a greater threat, as millions of people could be affected by flooding rainfall.
The most likely track of the storm would put anyone living Sri Lanka or eastern India in the greatest threat, while it remains possible that any developing tropical cyclone could also bring life threatening flooding to Bangladesh, an area already soaked by heavy rainfall during the past week.