Democratic front-runner John Kerry would finish in a dead heat with President Bush if the presidential election were held today, according to a Fox News poll released Friday.

The Massachusetts senator and the president would both receive 45 percent of the vote.

With those numbers, the 2004 presidential election is shaping up to look a lot like 2000, when 48 percent of voters supported Republican George W. Bush and 48 percent backed Democrat Al Gore.

The Fox News poll, conducted by Opinion Dynamics Corporation on Wednesday and Thursday, also shows that Bush's approval rating has dropped below 50 percent for the first time in his presidency.

Forty-eight percent say they approve and 41 percent say they disapprove of Bush's job performance. This is a 10-percentage point drop in the president's rating since the beginning of the year.

"Democrats are clearly benefiting from a relatively exciting primary season," said Chris Anderson of Opinion Dynamics. "For over a month now the primaries have provided a Democrat, usually Senator Kerry, a weekly victory to celebrate on national television. The spotlight is on the Democrats and they are effectively using it to get their message out while highlighting Bush's weaknesses."

For more on the campaign, click to view Foxnews.com's You Decide 2004 page.

Since early January, Bush's approval among men is down 13 points, eight points among women, 14 points among Democrats and down 13 points among independents. Approval among Republicans holds steady at 86 percent.

In addition, many Americans are placing significant weight on the outcome of this year's race -- almost two-thirds think this presidential election will make more of a difference to the country's future than most.

When those who would vote for Bush are asked the main reason why, many (30 percent) say because "he's doing a good job," while others cite his personal character (23 percent), positions on the issues (15 percent) and leadership qualities (11 percent).

Kerry supporters most frequently say "he's not Bush" (27 percent) and another 11 percent "he can beat Bush," with 20 percent referencing his positions on the issues, that he is a Democrat (14 percent) and his personal character (eight percent).

If Green Party candidate Ralph Nader were to enter the race he would take four percent of the vote, with Bush and Kerry still almost evenly matched (43 percent-42 percent respectively). Nader's advisors told Fox News Friday that he would enter the race as an independent candidate.

Currently just over a quarter of the public rate the nation's economic conditions positively (three percent "excellent" and 25 percent "good"), while 39 percent say "only fair" and 32 percent say "poor."

On a more personal level, slightly more Americans say for their family it feels like the economy is getting worse (41 percent) than getting better (36 percent). Considerably more Republicans (62 percent) than independents (36 percent) or Democrats (14 percent) say it feels like the economy is getting better. Conversely, 66 percent of Democrats say the economy is getting worse, compared to 41 percent of independents and 17 percent of Republicans.

Far outweighing other issues, the economy (29 percent) tops the list of voters' concerns in the presidential election, followed by the issues of health care (16 percent), terrorism/homeland security (14 percent) and education (10 percent). Few say Iraq (four percent) will be the most important issue in their vote, while five percent say gay marriage and six percent say Social Security.

When choosing between just the issues of national security and the nation's economy, a plurality picks the economy (44 percent) over national security (31 percent), with almost a quarter (23 percent) volunteering the response "both."

"This is a tough choice to force on people," notes Anderson. "In some ways it's like asking them to choose between air and food."

Democrats are twice as likely as Republicans to choose the economy, and Republicans are two-and-a-half times more likely than Democrats to say national security.

There continues to be widespread belief that the country is safer today after the capture of Saddam Hussein. Fully 75 percent agree the U.S. is safer (56 percent "strongly agree") and 21 percent say the country is no safer.

Much attention has recently been given to Bush's activities while he was in the National Guard during the 1970s, and Kerry's service in the Vietnam War and subsequent anti-war actions. Large majorities say Bush's service in the National Guard and Kerry's Vietnam War record will make no difference to their vote in November.

By more than two-to-one, the public says what a candidate did 30 years ago is irrelevant to this year's election.

Polling was conducted by telephone February 18-19, 2004 in the evenings. The sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted. LV = likely voters

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president?

2. On a scale of excellent, good, only fair and poor, how would you rate economic conditions today?
SCALE: 1. Excellent 2. Good 3. Only fair 4. Poor 5. (Not sure)

3. For you and your family, does it feel like the economy is getting better or worse?

4. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “The country is in serious moral decline.”

5. Which one of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president? (ROTATE)

6. Which of the following will be more important to your vote for president?
SCALE: 1. National security 2. Nation’s economy 3. (Both) 4. (Neither) 5. (Not sure)

*Wording: “Which do you think is more important — national security or the nation's economy?”

7. If a 2004 Democratic primary for president were held today, which ONE of the following candidates would you most likely vote for? (If not sure: Well, to whom do you lean?) (RANDOMIZE)

          Summary Among Democrats (n=345)

          Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry

          North Carolina Sen. John Edwards

          (Someone else/Other)

          (Not sure)

          (Would not vote)

8. If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (rotate order) 1. Republican George W. Bush 2. Democrat John Kerry 3. (Not sure/Other) 4. (Would not vote)

9. (If supporting Bush, n=406) What would you say is the main reason you are supporting Bush? (OPEN ENDED)

10. (If supporting Kerry, n=402) What would you say is the main reason you are supporting Kerry? (OPEN ENDED)

11. If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (rotate order)(Push for decision) 1. Republican George W. Bush 2. Democrat John Edwards 3. (Not sure/Other) 4. (Would not vote)

12. For whom would you vote if the candidates were: (ROTATE)

13. Let's imagine the Constitution allowed former President Bill Clinton to run for a third term. For whom would you vote if the candidates were: Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Bill Clinton? (ROTATE)

*Wording: “How would you vote if the candidates were Bill Clinton and George W. Bush?”

14. If John Kerry is the Democratic presidential nominee, which of the following do you think would make best vice presidential candidate? (RANDOMIZE)

15. - 21. Which political party — the Republicans or the Democrats — do you think would do a better job on each of the following issues? (ROTATE)
SCALE: 1. Republicans 2. Democrats 3. (Equal) 4. (Don’t know)

          — SUMMARY —

          — PAST TREND —

          The economy

*"job maintaining a strong economy"

          Terrorism

          Social Security

*"job preserving Social Security”

          Iraq

          Health Care

          Taxes

* "job keeping taxes down"

          Education

* "job improving education"

22. Which candidate do you think would do a better job as a wartime president — George W. Bush or John Kerry? (ROTATE)

23. Who do you think would do a better job on managing the country's economy — George W. Bush or John Kerry? (ROTATE)

24. In the future, if the United States were to be faced with a foreign crisis such as Iraq, which candidate would you trust to do a better job handling the situation — George W. Bush or John Kerry? (ROTATE)

25. In general, do you think a candidate’s behavior 30 years ago is relevant to whether he should be elected president in 2004?

26. Does George W. Bush’s service as a pilot in National Guard during the Vietnam War make you more likely to vote for him in November or less likely to vote for him, or will it make no difference to your vote?

27. Does John Kerry’s military service during the Vietnam War make you more likely to vote for him in November or less likely to vote for him, or will it make no difference to your vote?

28. Does John Kerry’s participation in antiwar protests after returning home from Vietnam make you more likely to vote for him in November or less likely to vote for him, or will it make no difference to your vote?

29. Which will be more important to you in deciding whether to vote for George W. Bush this year: his 1970s National Guard service record or his record as a wartime president?

30. Which will be more important in deciding whether to vote for John Kerry this year: his service record during the Vietnam War or his record as a U.S. senator?

31. Do you think this year’s presidential election will make more of a difference or less of a difference to the future of the country than most other presidential elections?

32. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? The United States and the world are safer today without Saddam Hussein in power. Is that strongly or just somewhat (agree/disagree)?

33. Martha Stewart was indicted on five federal counts, including conspiracy and obstruction of justice, and could go to jail if convicted. From what you've heard, do you believe Martha Stewart is guilty of these charges and should serve jail time, is guilty but the charges are not serious enough to justify jail time, or is she not guilty?
SCALE: 1. Guilty, should go to jail 2. Guilty, but no jail 3. Not guilty 4. (Not sure)

34. Which one of the following cases interests you the most? (RANDOMIZE)