The FBI’s October surprise appears to have improved Donald Trump’s overall standing in the electoral map, with the latest Fox News Electoral Scorecard showing several states shifting in his favor since last week.
The Fox News Decision Team announced updates to the scorecard Thursday afternoon, reflecting the following changes based on recent polling and other factors:
- New Hampshire moves from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up”
- Ohio moves from “toss-up” to “lean Republican”
- Indiana moves from “lean Republican” to “solid Republican”
- Missouri moves from “lean Republican” to “solid Republican”
Despite the changes, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton maintains the clear advantage, and Trump’s path to victory remains a tight one.
But the latest ratings show Clinton’s advantage diminishing.
If Clinton were to win all the states leaning toward or solidly in the Democratic column, she’d have 283 electoral votes – more than the 270 needed to win.
If Trump were to win all the states leaning toward or solidly in the GOP column, he’d be short at 192 electoral votes. But winning all the toss-up states would put him just 15 electoral votes shy of 270.
One more win in North Carolina, Michigan or Pennsylvania could get him to victory.
The updates and fresh polling comes in the wake of the FBI’s decision Friday to revisit the Clinton email investigation after new messages were found on the laptop used by ex-Rep. Anthony Weiner, the estranged husband of Clinton aide Huma Abedin.
The Clinton campaign and its allies have downplayed the significance of the messages while questioning the FBI’s announcement so close to Election Day.
Trump, meanwhile, has seized on the news as well as other developments to press his case in the final stretch.
Speaking Thursday in Jacksonville, Fla., he cited reporting by Fox News that an FBI investigation regarding the Clinton Foundation has become a “high priority.”
He also touted new polls in Ohio and elsewhere showing him ahead.
Clinton and President Obama have, for their part, made an impassioned case to voters to not elect Trump.
“You want a voice who’s bragging about how being famous lets you get away with what would qualify as sexual assault, and calls women pigs, and dogs, and slobs?” Obama warned voters Thursday in Miami. “And when he pays attention to women, it’s because he’s grading them on a scale of one to ten. What kind of message are we sending if that’s our voice?”
In the latest states to shift, Ohio is the most highly sought prize. Trump has been leading there for weeks and his recent national bounce moves the state back into his column. Early ballot requests also suggest a Republican advantage.
The Electoral Scorecard also recently moved Florida and Nevada from “lean Democrat” into the “toss-up” column as well, while North Carolina shifted from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat.”