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On the roster: Hillary’s hopes could fall through enthusiasm gap - Power Play: How much can Obama help Hillary? - Hacked off: Powell fumed over Clinton email scandal - I’ll tell you what! A daggone T.V. show - Suddenly, Boris realized he was the slowest runner in the group
HILLARY’S HOPES COULD FALL THROUGH ENTHUSIASM GAP
A new poll in Ohio that shows Donald Trump winning the mother of all swing states by 5 points raises a worrisome question for Democrats: What if Hillary Clinton falls through the enthusiasm gap between the two parties?
Bloomberg News pollster Ann Selzer looked at Ohio through the lens of not the 2012 election, in which minority voters and young voters flocked to the polls for Barack Obama, but more like 2004 when John Kerry failed to energize the Democratic base and George W. Bush managed to squeeze out every bit of Republican vote share he could.
Adding in Libertarian Gary Johnson’s 10 percent of the vote, which seems to be substantially siphoned from Clinton, you end up with a solid win for Trump. And with Johnson now on the ballot in all 50 states, that ain’t chicken feed.
Always bear in mind with polls that every reliable survey begins with some assumptions about what the electorate will look like. While it may not be that all of the Obama coalition evaporates, given Clinton’s relentless, disheartening of her party and swing voters, there is no doubt that there will be some drop off.
As Ross Douthat explains in the NYT, defeated and disheartened Democrats could lose some of their fear of Trump and let the White House drift into his hands. And with the RNC pumping up voter registration efforts in key states, there’s reason to think that the pool of available voters on the red team might be sufficient.
As Clinton continues to find new ways to fail at running for president, Democratic efforts to boost enthusiasm will have to intensify. President Obama’s dire depictions of the GOP are likely only the beginning of the calamities which will be foretold in the event of a Trump win.
But Selzer may have done Democrats a favor with her stark model. The persistent belief that somehow this election will just have to be a landslide has done more damage than may be anything else.
POWER PLAY: HOW MUCH CAN OBAMA HELP HILLARY?
President Obama is seeing his highest approval ratings since 2009 and as a former member of his cabinet Hillary Clinton is hoping that good feeling translates well for her in the race. But do the president’s job approval numbers matter for his party’s successor? How does Donald Trump, as the opposing candidate, deal with such positive response? Chris Stirewalt explains it all in just 60 seconds. WATCH HERE.
THE RULEBOOK: MORE THAN THE SUM OF OUR PARTS
“Who are to be the electors of the federal representatives? Not the rich, more than the poor; not the learned, more than the ignorant; not the haughty heirs of distinguished names, more than the humble sons of obscurity and unpropitious fortune. The electors are to be the great body of the people of the United States. They are to be the same who exercise the right in every State of electing the corresponding branch of the legislature of the State.” – James Madison, “Federalist No. 57”
TIME OUT: HE WASN’T IN IT FOR THE MONEY
The new Librarian of Congress, Carla Hayden, takes charge of her post today overseeing the largest library in the world. Although the term for the nation’s librarian today is understood as a lifetime appointment, the first librarian only served five years. Library of Congress: “On January 29, 1802, Pres. Thomas Jefferson appointed the Clerk of the House of Representatives, his political ally John J. Beckley, to serve concurrently as the first Librarian of Congress…He was the first Clerk of the House of Representatives, as well as the first Librarian of Congress. His salary as Librarian could not exceed two dollars a day…His son Alfred inherited a large tract of unsettled land in what today is West Virginia and built the first house in a village that became the city of Beckley, named so by Alfred to honor his father.”
Flag on the play? - Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM with your tips, comments or questions
Average of national head-to-head presidential polls: Clinton vs. Trump: Clinton +4.2 points
[Polls included: WaPo/ABC News, CNN, IBD, Fox News, and USA Today.]
Average of national four-way presidential polls: Clinton vs. Trump vs. Johnson vs. Stein: Clinton +1.6 points
[Polls included: WaPo/ABC News, CNN, Boston Herald, GWU, and IBD]
HACKED OFF: POWELL FUMED OVER CLINTON EMAIL SCANDAL
Fox News: “Colin Powell attempted to persuade Hillary Clinton and her aides to not use him as a scapegoat for the controversy surrounding her private email server, according to leaked emails hacked from the former secretary of state’s Gmail account. In the emails, which were obtained by The Intercept, Powell wrote to at least one confidant about his repeated warning to Clinton not to blame him for the scandal. ‘I told her staff three times not to try that gambit. I had to throw a mini tantrum at a Hampton’s party to get their attention. She keeps tripping into these ‘character’ minefields,’ he wrote. He also had tried to settle the matter in a meeting with Clinton aide Cheryl Mills in August. In a separate email, Powell said he ‘warned her staff three times over the past two years not to try to connect it to me. I am not sure HRC even knew or understood what was going on in the basement.’”
Clinton to resume full campaign schedule Thursday - Time: “Hillary Clinton will be back on the campaign trail Thursday, after spending several days at home recovering from pneumonia. Campaign spokesman Nick Merrill says the Democratic nominee will resume normal campaign activities later this week. Clinton is scheduled to address the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute dinner in Washington on Thursday evening and appear on ‘The Tonight Show’ Friday.”
TRUMP UNDER FIRE ON CHARITY QUESTIONS
In a new web ad, the Clinton campaign aims for Donald Trump’s charitable foundation accusing the Republican frontrunner of “corrupt politics.” This comes as New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman opened an inquiry into the foundation after multiple transactions caught their attention. Schneiderman said in an interview Tuesday that the inquiry is just to ensure the Trump Foundation is operating within the laws of New York on charitable groups, adding he didn’t want to “make a big deal” out of it.
Trump’s campaign responded with a statement accusing the attorney general of being a “partisan hack” and ignoring problems with the Clinton Foundation due to Schneiderman’s public support of Clinton. House Democrats are also calling for a federal probe into Trump’s donations to Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi as her office was considering fraud allegations against Trump University.
AUDIBLE: THIS WON’T HURT A BIT
“I’m not going to ask him questions he doesn’t want to have answered.” -- Mehmet Oz in an interview on his upcoming show with Donald Trump where the two will discuss health and tease the release of Trump’s medical records.
Ivanka Trump tells Megyn Kelly the U.S. needs to ‘catch up’ on maternity leave, child care - Fox News
Trump campaign steers Conn. volunteers to N.H. - Boston Globe
Trump, ex-wife fight efforts to unseal their divorce filings - The Hill
How Pepe’s creator feels about his appropriation as an white nationalist symbol - Atlantic
Trump’s business ties could raise conflict of interest questions when making U.S. national security decisions - Newsweek
Salena Zito explains how Democrats in Western Pa. are voting Republican for self-preservation - Atlantic
Dems see chances of gaining Senate majority dimming - AP
Dem PAC aims $10.5 million at Rubio - The Hill
FROM THE BLEACHERS
“Chris, I think the popularity of President Obama is a result of him being juxtaposed to two presidential candidates who would make President James Buchanan appear Lincoln like. I suspect when future historians compare him to past presidents his rating will not fare well. Since Hillary’s low popularity is a source of Obama’s momentary popularity I doubt he will be of much assistance to her in the election.” – Steve Bartlett, Greenville, S.C.
[Ed. note: Pity poor James Buchanan! It’s doubtful that anyone could’ve succeeded in his situation, even one with the gifts of Lincoln. But, yes, Buchannan was almost singularly ill-suited for the moment. As for how history will adjudge Obama, much will depend on how the world looks 25 years hence as the generational shift takes place. When the baton is passed, judgments harden; Reagan goes up, Clinton goes down, and on, and on…If the world looks like the kind of place Obama wants it to be, and his vision of a flatter world is borne out, he will be called a visionary. If his domestic and foreign policies are found to be out of step with the world in, say, 2040, he will be a goat (and no, not G.O.A.T.)]
“While I appreciate that you now list the polls that are ‘included’ in your average, it would be helpful to understand the most recent date of those polls. Are they 1 day old, 1 week old, 1 month old? We, the people, are inundated daily with poll results. Yours is a measured approach, which is great, but it would be helpful to understand the date of the measurements.” – Will Davis, Lakewood, Colo.
[Ed. note: Though I don’t always abide by the truism that brevity is the sole of wit in my writing we do aim to be considerate of our readers by not deluging them with ephemera. But I think we have struck upon a good compromise when it comes to information on polls. If you click on the links to the polls included, you will see the source documents and the dates they were in the field. For those like you, Mr. Davis, who want to swim deep in the data we’ve provided the diving board.]
“I would love to see Hillary box a kangaroo and split a fence post with an ax! You are a scream. How do you think up this stuff? Even when I see you on Fox News, I start laughing - before you have opened your mouth.” – Lou McNeal, Pineville, La.
[Ed. note: People have been laughing when they see me my whole life! I’m just glad I can make a living out of it.]
Share your color commentary: Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM and please make sure to include your name and hometown.
I’LL TELL YOU WHAT! A DAGGONE T.V. SHOW
Yes, you read that right. What started as a lark, but grew into one of the most popular political podcasts in the country is coming to the Fox News Channel. “Perino & Stirewalt: I’ll Tell You What,” will air at 5 p.m. ET on Sundays through Nov. 18 starting this week.
Hosts Dana Perino and Chris Stirewalt will bring their mix of the latest political news, polling analysis breakdown, trivia facts and fun. Rounding out the hour will be familiar faces from the Fox News family and some folks you may be just getting to know.
If you haven’t been able to tune into the podcast and are looking for a little taste of what to expect this Sunday LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE before the next installment comes out tonight.
[Ed. note: There is no way this would have happened without you people. I know that I am in your debt every day for allowing us to come into your inboxes, but it is an even greater honor that some of you might let us into your living rooms. Sunday evenings are a special time, and I know I can speak for Dana when I say it would be a privilege to be a part of yours.]
SUDDENLY, BORIS REALIZED HE WAS THE SLOWEST RUNNER IN THE GROUP
Newsweek: “Russia is preparing an emergency delivery for a group of its scientists surrounded by polar bears on an Arctic island, according to state news agency Itar-Tass. The expedition on the Troynoy island in Russia’s northern Kara Sea sent news over the weekend that around ten bears had surrounded their base and they had no means of scaring the animals off, the head of the five person delegation told Tasson Monday. ‘As of Saturday, a female bear has practically been sleeping under the Arctic station’s windows,’ Vadim Plotnikov, head of the expedition said. He added that at least four bears are visible from the base at any given time…Vasily Shevchenko, the head of the state observatory that manages the base, said the scientists are in touch with the delegation constantly and planning a delivery to the scientists.”
AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“What [Donald Trump] is proposing [in his child care policy speech] is to out Democrat the Democrats. This is an enormous new entitlement. It will blow the debt and when he says…he’s gonna mandate from Washington.” – Charles Krauthammer on “Special Report with Bret Baier.”
Chris Stirewalt is digital politics editor for Fox News. Sally Persons contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.
Chris Stirewalt joined Fox News Channel (FNC) in July of 2010 and serves as politics editor based in Washington, D.C. Additionally, he authors the daily Fox News Halftime Report political news note and co-hosts the hit podcast, Perino & Stirewalt: I'll Tell You What. He also is the host of Power Play, a feature video series on FoxNews.com. Stirewalt makes frequent appearances on network programs, including America’s Newsroom, Special Report with Bret Baier and Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace. He also provides expert political analysis for FNC’s coverage of state, congressional and presidential elections.