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Fox News exit poll summary: Obama's key groups made the difference

 

An examination of the exit polls sheds light on how a president facing unemployment near 8 percent, debt topping $16 trillion and mounting questions over the Libya terror attack was able to win a second term in office. 

Obama’s win Tuesday night came from a strong showing among core Democratic constituencies, being more likeable than his opponent, and an economy that voters felt is doing well-enough to give him another four years. Also, the president’s response to Hurricane Sandy in the final days of the campaign was an important factor to many voters.

Obama’s key groups made the difference -- both in their makeup of the electorate and, for the most part, their strength of support for him.  

Non-whites made up 28 percent of the electorate, up a bit from 27 percent in 2008.  This group largely backed Obama:  71 percent of Hispanics (it was 67 percent last time), and 93 percent of blacks (down a touch from 95 percent).

Republican challenger Mitt Romney won among white voters by 20 percentage points.  That’s up from John McCain’s edge of +12 points in 2008.  In addition, the share of votes cast by whites was lower (72 percent) than it has been going back to at least 1992. 

Click to read the exit polls.

Young voters were important to giving Obama his first term.  Voters under age 30 showed up again this time:  They represented 19 percent of all voters, one point higher than the 18 percent in 2008.  Even so, they didn’t back him as strongly this time: 60 percent -- down six points. 

National

Young Voters

Obama            60%

Romney          37%

Seniors backed Romney by 56-44 percent, mostly unchanged from 2008.

Meanwhile, more Democrats than Republicans voted, 38-32 percent.  In 2008, Democrats also outnumbered Republicans by 39-32 percent. 

Almost all Democrats supported the president (92 percent).  That support was equaled among Republicans for Romney (93 percent).

Forty-five percent of independents backed Obama, down from 52 percent last time.  Half of this swing group preferred Romney (49 percent). 

Marital status was a more significant factor than gender this year.  Women, a traditional Democratic voting group, backed Obama by 11 points -- about the same as by 13 points in 2008.  Even so, married women backed Romney by 7 points (an improvement from McCain’s +3 showing).

Men backed Romney (52-45 percent), and married men backed him by an even wider margin (60-38 percent). 

Romney was successful in energizing his base: conservatives accounted for 35 percent of all voters today, one-point higher than in 2008.  And he captured 82 percent of them (McCain got 78 percent).  White born-again Christians made up 26 percent of the voters today and 78 percent favored Romney (for McCain it was 74 percent).

In addition, white Catholics went for Romney by a margin of 59-40 percent.  This is a group that has historically backed the winner.

About four voters in 10 say Obama’s response to Hurricane Sandy was important to their vote (42 percent), and they backed the president by a better than two-to-one margin.  Fifteen percent said it was the “most important” factor in their vote. 

Mood of the Country

Obama’s victory comes despite voter dissatisfaction with how things are going in the country, mediocre economic ratings and a majority opposing his health care plan.

Less than half of voters think the country is headed in the right direction (46 percent).  Fifty-two percent say things are going in the wrong direction.  Still, that’s an improvement from the 75 percent who thought so in 2008. 

National

Direction of the Country

Right Direction           46%

Wrong Track              52%

For reference, when former President George W. Bush won re-election in 2004, it was 49 percent right direction and 46 percent wrong track. 

Voters who said the country is on the right track went for Obama (93-6 percent), while those who said things are going in the wrong direction went solidly for Romney (84-13 percent).

Overall, 23 percent rate the condition of the nation’s economy positively (2 percent “excellent” and 21 percent “good”).  That’s three times as many as the 7 percent who rated it positively in 2008.

Fully 77 percent of voters gave a gloomier assessment (45 percent “not so good” and 31 percent “poor”). 

Almost all Republicans (96 percent) and most independents (80 percent) gave the economy a thumbs-down, as did 58 percent of Democrats.  

Voters are also divided over whether the economy is getting better or worse (39-30 percent).

Obama benefited from more voters blaming Bush (53 percent) than him (38 percent) for current economic conditions.

National

Blame For Current

Economic Problems  

Obama            38%

Bush                53%

Twenty-five percent said they are better off today than four years ago -- almost identical to the 24 percent who felt that way in 2008.  More -- 33 percent -- said they are worse off now.  Another 41 percent say there has been no change in their family’s financial situation. 

Most of those saying they are better off today voted to re-elect the president (84-15 percent).  Those who are worse off sided with Romney by 80-18 percent.

Results on the role of government favored Romney.  Fifty-one percent said they prefer smaller government with fewer services, while 43 percent prefer larger government.

These divided views translate into clear vote preferences: voters who want the government to do less backed Romney by a whopping 50-point margin, and those that want it to do more went for Obama by 65 points.

A 54-percent majority approves of President Obama’s job performance, while 45 percent disapprove.  Almost all of those who approve voted for him today (89 percent), just as those that disapprove backed his challenger (94 percent).

In addition, 19 percent of voters felt “angry” about the Obama administration and 30 percent were “dissatisfied but not angry.”   At the other end of the spectrum 24 percent felt “satisfied, but not enthusiastic,” and 25 percent felt “enthusiastic.” 

On the Issues

There’s no doubt the economy is the top issue for voters -- here’s what they say is the biggest economic problem they’re personally facing.  Voters saying unemployment is the biggest problem sided with Romney.  Those who say rising prices go to Obama. 

National

Most Important Economic Issue

Unemployment           38%

Rising Prices              37%

Taxes                          14%

Housing Market            8%

Romney had a one-point edge on doing a better job on the economy and likewise on the federal budget deficit (+2). 

More voters trust Obama than Romney to handle an international crisis (+7 points) and think he would better handle Medicare (+8 points). 

Nearly half of voters -- 49 percent -- think all or part of Obama’s health care law should be repealed -- something Romney had said he would do.  Forty-four percent want to keep or expand the law.

A plurality agrees with Obama on what should happen with income tax rates:  47 percent think taxes should increase only on income over $250,000.  Some 13 percent say taxes should increase on everyone, while 35 percent don’t think anybody’s taxes should increase.

The Candidates

More voters like Obama:  53 percent have a favorable opinion of him, while 47 percent have a positive view of Romney.

National

Opinion of Obama

Favorable        53%

Unfavorable    46

 

National

Opinion of Romney

Favorable        47%

Unfavorable    50%

And by 53-43 percent voters think Obama is “in touch” with people like them.

National

In Touch With People Like You

Obama is         53%

Romney is       43%

People looking for empathy in a candidate mostly back Obama (81-18 percent).  Those looking for a candidate who shares their values went for Romney (55-42 percent), as did those who wanted someone with a vision for the future (54-45 percent).

Finally, Obama successfully painted Romney as someone whose policies would favor the rich -- 53 percent of voters thought that.  Almost all voters think Obama’s policies favor the middle class (44 percent) or poor (31 percent).

COLORADO

President Obama won Colorado, a battleground state that he also won in 2008, with the help of Hispanics and independents. 

Colorado has a large Hispanic population -- the state ranks sixth in the United States.  Hispanics gave the president more support than in 2008 when he received 61 percent to McCain’s 38 percent. 

Colorado

Hispanics

Obama            74%

Romney          25%

White evangelicals also put their support behind the Republican candidate.  Colorado is home to James Dobson one of the most influential spokesmen for the conservative movement and its social positions behind the white evangelical movement in the United States.  In 2008, white evangelicals supported the Republican candidate John McCain by 76 percent to Obama with 23 percent. 

Colorado

Evangelicals

Obama            23%

Romney          74%

In 2008, independents in Colorado gave their support to Obama by 54 to 44 percent for Arizona Sen. John McCain.  Tonight, that support dropped significantly -- by 11 points -- and Mitt Romney won that important group. 

Colorado

Independents  

Obama            43%

Romney          50%

Obama won with the support of Colorado’s voters who identified themselves as moderates.  But his support with this group was down significantly from 2008.  Obama won moderates in his first bid for the White House 63 percent to 34 percent for Senator McCain. 

Colorado

Moderates

Obama            50%

Romney          45%

FLORIDA

The race is tight in Florida and a winner had not been called as of this writing. Unemployment and home foreclosure rates are high there, but half the voters blame George W. Bush for current economic problems.

Florida

Blame For Current

Economic Problems  

Obama      42%       

Bush        51%

Independents were 33 percent of the voters in Florida. They split 50 percent for Obama, 48 percent for Romney. In 2008, independents favored Obama 52 percent to 45 percent, giving him a 7 percentage point advantage.

Florida

Independents

Obama            50%

Romney          48%

Almost one-in-five (17%) Floridian voters is of Hispanic descent.  But in Florida there's a sizeable Cuban-American population -- distinct from other parts of the country.  They went slightly for Romney.

Florida

Cuban-American Voters

Obama            47%

Romney          50%

However Hispanics of non-Cuban descent went for Obama.

Florida

Non-Cuban Hispanic Voters

Obama            68%

Romney          32%

Obama did very well among blacks as well. Romney won among white voters.

Florida

White voters

Obama    38%

Romney  61%

Florida has the highest percentage of seniors of all states. They were almost one-quarter of all voters. They favored Romney by 16 percentage points.

Florida

Seniors

Obama            42%

Romney          58%

 

IOWA

Obama started his presidential career winning the Iowa caucuses in 2008 and he ended his campaign there on Monday night. While Obama won young voters in most states, here he did okay among seniors as well, splitting them 50-50 with Romney.

Iowa

Seniors

Obama    50%

Romney  50%

More Iowans describe themselves as moderate than liberal or conservative. Obama carried moderates easily.

Iowa

Moderates

Obama    63%

Romney  35%

Romney didn’t gain any votes with his position on abortion. A majority of voters think abortion should be legal. Obama outscored Romney on being better able to handle the economy, Medicare, energy policy and being in touch.

OHIO

Since 2004, Ohio has flip-flopped in its support for the presidency between the Republican and Democratic candidates.  In 2008, Obama won by five points.  In 2004, Ohio voters supported the Republican presidential candidate, George W. Bush, over Democrat John Kerry by two percentage points.   Tonight, Obama carried the state for the second time. 

Ohio voters are more likely to blame the country’s current economic conditions on former President George W. Bush than Obama. Ohio has an unemployment rate of seven percent, which is below the national average of 7.8 percent.  It also ranks 10th in foreclosures.

Ohio

Blame For Current

Economic Problems

Obama            40%

Bush                51%

Voters in union households increased their support for the president by five points (it was 56-43 percent in 2008). 

Ohio

Union Households

Obama            61%

Romney          37%

Almost six in 10 Ohio voters approved of the federal bailout of U.S. automakers.  Of those voters who approved of the bailout, 75 percent supported Obama, while 24 percent went for Romney.

Ohio

U.S. Auto Bailout

Approve          59% 

Disapprove     36%

Romney drew a great deal of his support from white men, winning that group by 62-36 percent.  In 2008, the Republican John McCain received 53 percent to 45 percent for Obama. 

Ohio

White Men

Obama            36%

Romney          62%

VIRGINIA

In 2008, Obama was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win Virginia in more than 40 years and tonight, he did it again. 

Virginia has fared better than most states in the past four years, with an unemployment rate at two percentage points below the national average.   Still, Virginia voters said the economy was their top issue. 

Virginia

Top Issue: Economy

Obama            47%

Romney          51%

Goode             1%

Voters who said the economy was the most important issue broke almost evenly between the two candidates: 47 percent Obama to 51 percent Mitt Romney -- and 1 percent for Virgil Goode, the Constitution Party candidate. 

Among college educated voters, Obama did well.  He won that group in 2008, and this time with an increase in support of two percentage points.

Virginia

College Graduates

Obama            53%

Romney          46%

Obama’s second win in Virginia was largely due to the support he received from women and black voters.   

Virginia

Women

Obama            54%

Romney          45%

Virginia

Black Voters

Obama            93%

Romney          6%

Independents in 2008 narrowly supported the president.  This time they broke for the Republican candidate.

Virginia

Independents

Obama            43%

Romney          53%

Veterans and active military split their support evenly between the two candidates. 

Virginia

Veterans and Active Military

Obama            49%

Romney          49%

WISCONSIN

Republican vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan is from Wisconsin. Just over half there have a favorable opinion of him.  That wasn't enough to carry the ticket to victory in a state that last went Republican in 1984.

Wisconsin

Opinion Of Paul Ryan

Favorable        52%  

Unfavorable    43%

Women played an important role in the president’s victory in Wisconsin.   They favored him 57 percent to 42 percent for Romney.

Wisconsin

Women

Obama            57% 

Romney          42%

Young voters were another strong group for Obama, splitting 59 percent to 38 percent for Romney.

Wisconsin

Young voters

Obama            59% 

Romney          38%

More than half the voters approved of the federal government’s aid to U.S. automakers. Those voters strongly backed the president. Those who disapprove of the auto bailout went for Romney just as strongly.

Wisconsin

U.S. Auto Bailout

Approve          53% 

Disapprove     39%

Methodology

Edison Research conducted this exit poll for Fox News and interviewed 26,565 voters as they left randomly selected polling places around the country.