• To hear the pundits tell it, it's a slam dunk: Democrats are going to get dunked this fall; darn near a mid-term massacre that could very well turn the House Republican and maybe the Senate too.

    One thing I've learned as the business nerd here at Fox: A lot of sure investment bets aren't always so sure or always so right.

    I'm not here to bore you with history lessons or tell you how only a year ago Barack Obama could do no wrong, and Republicans could do no right. I prefer more present-day examples.

    Not from here, from over there in England where Conservatives, who were expected to topple the Labour government, are sliding faster than once sure-bet 2000 Internet stock.

    The Financial Times reporting that while Britons are still plenty angry at the prime minister there, they're plenty confused about what Conservatives would do if they replaced him there.

    It's been a fast slide. The Conservatives, or Tories, were up more than 10 points over Labour — Britain's Democrats, if you will — only a couple months ago. Now one poll has them ahead only two points.

    What's worse for the Tories, the way their own parliamentary districting works out, unless they have a big lead in the polls, don't expect a big change in seats.

    In other words, Labour could hold on and have the last laugh after all and this for a party given up for dead and a prime minister given up for a laughing stock.

    Which remains something in which we should all take stock: Those who live by sure bets are sure to die assuming they were so sure. They're not.

    If American conservatives won't glance at a history book for that wisdom, maybe they should just glance across "the pond."

    Watch Neil Cavuto weekdays at 4 p.m. ET on "Your World with Cavuto" and send your comments to cavuto@foxnews.com