But rest assured. If you’re looking for some guidance as you prepare for your office Oscar pool, you’ve come to the right place. For the past four years, Fox 411 has provided some of the most accurate predictions on the web. This year, we plan to do it again.
Today, we take a look at the Best Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay categories.
Let's take a look at the odds.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
THE NOMINEES: “The Artist,” “Bridesmaids,” “Margin Call,” “Midnight in Paris” and “A Separation”
PREDICTION: “Midnight in Paris”
This Oscar generally goes to the most original script in the bunch. “The Artist” has a chance, but many voters may have a difficult time giving a silent film a writing award. That means that “Midnight in Paris,” the only other Best Picture nominee in the category, gets the trophy.
A creative concept with an assortment of colorful characters and witty dialogue, it’s Woody Allen’s most successful film in history and viewed as one of his best films in years. Allen previously won this award for 1977’s “Annie Hall” and 1986’s “Hannah and Her Sisters.” The Academy probably feels like it’s time for him to win again, even though everyone know that he won’t show up to accept the award.
An upset by the smash hit “Bridesmaids” isn’t out of the question, but its failure to land a Best Picture nod hurts its chances. (At least its cast members are slated to present – which may be one of the highlights of the show.)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
THE NOMINEES: “The Descendants,” “Hugo,” “The Ides of March,” “Moneyball” and “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
PREDICTION: “The Descendants”
If I’m correct that “The Descendants” will lose in the top categories, this is the logical place for the Academy to honor both the film and its writer-director, Alexander Payne. It’s a tight script with a clever blend of comedy and drama, the same formula which worked for Payne the last time he won this award – for 2004’s “Sideways.”
Both “Hugo” and “Moneyball” can’t be counted out here, but I’ll still put my money on “The Descendants.”
Check back this week for more of Dr. Oscar's predictions. Tune into Fox411.com Sunday at 7 p.m. to watch our live coverage of the Oscars red carpet.