Be Careful Trusting Prevailing Views

Connect these dots: busy hurricane season, gas going to five bucks and markets not going anywhere.

They were all consensus predictions going into this year — sure money bets this year.

Only the hurricane season wasn't busy, gas is closer to two bucks now and the markets are hitting records.

I'm not smart enough to know what's next, just smart enough to know the consensus is always wrong telling me what's next.

Ok, maybe not all the time. But I'll say this: most of the time.

Just like the consensus was wrong when it said the president's father was a shoo-in for reelection. He wasn't.

Or Bill Clinton might even have to resign. He didn't.

Or that the Boston Red Sox, two years ago, down three games to zip, were doomed. They weren't.

Again and again, history reminds us how dumb our experts are and how wrong our collective consensus is.

All I know is they say it's a sure thing housing will tumble now, which makes me think, since everyone's saying it, it won't now.

And all I know is that if every expert says no way in heck Hillary Clinton can be elected president, there's sure a heck of a way she can.

After all, didn't the experts say the same about Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter?

Look, all I'm saying is be careful trusting prevailing views. They don't prevail that long.

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