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'Zig-Zag Theory': Houston Rockets will cover and even series vs. Los Angeles Lakers in Game 2
By Geoff Clark
Published April 21, 2026
You’d think there would’ve been more coverage of Kevin Durant banging knees with a teammate at practice, especially since it led to him missing the first-round Western Conference playoff opener between the Houston Rockets (0-1) and Los Angeles Lakers (1-0) Saturday.
But nope. The NBA media fell asleep at the wheel (go figure) and not even the betting market seemed to know Durant would miss Game 1 until Houston announced it Saturday evening.
Despite injuries to Lakers stars Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, Durant’s absence was too much for the Rockets to overcome, and Houston dropped the opener, 107-98.
Rockets Still Worth Backing In Game 2
Durant is expected to be a game-time decision for Game 2, and sportsbooks are giving him a decent chance to suit up Tuesday.
Houston Rockets C Alperen Sengun and wing Kevin Durant sit on the bench against the Los Angeles Lakers during Game 1 of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Crypto.com Arena. (Kirby Lee (Imagn Images))
The Lakers closed as +2.5 underdogs in Game 1 and are now sitting at +4.5 at DraftKings, FanDuel, and prediction markets at the time of writing.
But the sharper books are telling a slightly different story.
Pinnacle and Circa, sportsbooks known for taking action from bettors with better information or stronger reads, have moved Houston from -4.5 on the Game 2 opener to -5.5.
That’s enough for me. I’m following the sharp line movement and laying the points with Houston on Tuesday.
2025-26 NBA PLAYOFF ODDS: SPREADS, LINES FOR FIRST-ROUND SERIES
Why I’m Fading The Lakers Tuesday
First off, everybody is going to be on the Lakers in Game 2.
They’re the most popular team in the NBA, and Durant might not play. Even if he does, there’s a good chance he won’t be anywhere close to 100 percent.
And while I don’t worship at the altar of betting splits, I’d still rather fade the public than follow it.
Also, I'm expecting shooting regression from the Lakers.
Los Angeles Lakers' LeBron James gets a layup vs. the Houston Rockets in Game 1 of their first-round Western Conference Playoffs series at Crypto.com Arena. (Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)
They posted a ridiculous 68.2% effective field goal rate in Game 1, which feels like a prime regression spot heading into Tuesday. The Lakers knocked down 52.6% of their threes, which is tough to replicate.
Los Angeles SG Luke Kennard, who moved into the starting lineup because of the injuries to Doncic and Reaves, went off for a game-high 27 points, shooting 69.2% from the floor, including 5-for-5 from behind the arc.
It didn’t stop there. Lakers PF Rui Hachimura shot 60.0%, and C Deandre Ayton went 8-for-10 from the field.
I’m literally betting on that not happening again Tuesday.
Houston Should Play Better, With Or Without Durant
Whether Durant plays or not, Houston’s defense is too good to expect another effort like Game 1.
Rockets head coach Ime Udoka should have his team defending with much more urgency, and Houston’s top frontcourt weapon is also likely to bounce back.
Rockets All-Star big Alperen Şengün was awful in Game 1, at least by his standards. He scored just 19 points on 31.6% shooting and posted a 101 offensive rating.
Houston Rockets center Alperen Sengun dunks the ball on the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 1 of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Crypto.com Arena. (Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)
That shouldn’t last.
The Lakers ranked 19th in defensive rating during the regular season, and Ayton is one of the worst defensive bigs in the NBA. In two games vs. LAL this season, Şengün averaged 20.5 points on 68.2% shooting and posted a 136 offensive rating.
That’s the version of Şengün I’m expecting to see in Game 2.
The Zig-Zag Theory Is In Play
I’m also expecting Houston to respond the way other playoff teams already have.
The Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Timberwolves both bounced back by stealing Game 2 on the road in their respective series. That lines up with the old-school postseason betting concept known as the zig-zag theory, where you bet the team that just lost in the next game.
Atlanta and Minnesota were facing better opponents, too. So if those teams can even up a series before heading home, Houston absolutely can do the same.
Best Bet: Houston Rockets -4.5 (-117) at Kalshi
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